Sixteen things to get you ready for Kentucky’s 2023 Boys’ Sweet 16 basketball tournament

The 2023 UK HealthCare Boys’ Sweet 16 begins Wednesday as teams from around the state will square off to see who will capture Kentucky high school basketball’s ultimate prize.

Here are 16 things to think about as the tournament returns to Rupp Arena this week:

1. The Lyon King

Lyon County’s Travis Perry needs 21 points against Newport in Thursday’s 1:30 p.m. game in order to surpass “King” Kelly Coleman’s Kentucky boys’ high school basketball record of 4,337 career points, a mark that has stood since 1956.

Perry, a 6-foot-2 junior guard who has led the Lyons (30-5) in scoring since seventh grade, is in the midst of his best season yet with 1,128 points scored going into the first round. That number unofficially ranks Perry eighth on the KHSAA boys’ single-season scoring list.

Coleman’s record of 4,337 points was set over a four-year varsity career from 1953 to 1956, according to KHSAA records. His 1,734 points as a senior stands as the most in a single season.

Perry’s 4,317 career points to date include 638 points as a seventh-grader, 852 points as an eighth-grader, 709 points as a freshman and 990 points as a sophomore. He’s averaged 32.2 points per game this season and 27 points per game for his career and is poised to far surpass Coleman with a solid senior campaign.

Perry rates as a four-star recruit in the class of 2024, according to 247Sports.com and Rivals. He’s kept mum about college plans thus far, but reportedly holds at least 17 scholarship offers, including Kentucky, Purdue, Michigan and Iowa.

2. Blockbuster Thursday

If Perry’s pursuit of history on the second day of the tournament wasn’t enough, Thursday’s 8:30 p.m. game features defending state champion George Rogers Clark against North Laurel, which happens to have the most celebrated in-state University of Kentucky recruit in years, Reed Sheppard.

Despite a season plagued by teammates’ injuries, Sheppard’s Jaguars (25-10) rank as the No. 1 team in the tournament, according to the Herald-Leader’s Dave Cantrall Ratings.

Sheppard, the 13th Region player of the year as voted by the Kentucky Association of Basketball Coaches, is the favorite to earn Mr. Basketball honors later this month. He’s averaging 22.1 points and 8.7 rebounds per game as a senior.

Clark (27-5) ranks as the tourney’s third-best team according to Cantrall, and was the Herald-Leader’s preseason No. 1. The Cardinals return three starters from last year’s state champs, including Morehead State signee Jerone Morton, the 10th Region co-player of the year who averages 20 points and 6.8 rebounds per game.

3. Sizing them up

According to the final Cantrall Ratings, four first-round matchups could be described as coin-flip games, with Thursday night’s North Laurel-Clark showdown the tightest of them all with only a 0.8 ratings point difference between the two.

Here’s how the first-round looks competitively according to Cantrall. Games are sorted from closest matchup to biggest disparity.

▪ 1. North Laurel, 84.7 vs. 3. George Rogers Clark, 83.9 (NL +0.8)

▪ 11. Elizabethtown, 73.5 vs. 13. McCracken County, 72.1 (E +1.4)

▪ 8. Lyon County, 78.7 vs. 10. Newport, 76.3 (LC +2.4)

▪ 6. Woodford County, 80.2 vs. 9. Jeffersontown, 77.3 (WC +2.9)

▪ 7. Ashland Blazer, 78.9 vs. 12. Owensboro, 72.4 (AB +6.5)

▪ 2. Warren Central, 84.3 vs. 14. Pulaski County, 70.5 (WC +13.8)

▪ 4. Male, 83.7 vs. 15. Breathitt County, 68.5 (M +15.2)

▪ 5. Frederick Douglass, 82.4 vs. 16. Martin County, 63.4 (FD +19)

In 2022, teams rated higher by Cantrall won five of eight first-round games. Eventual champion George Rogers Clark came in as the No. 1 team.

4. Surprise, surprise, surprise

The 16 journalists from across the state who voted in this year’s Kentucky High School Basketball Media Poll all attempted to guess the Sweet 16 field before the postseason started.

The best two of them could do was get half the picks correct. The rest fared much worse.

That could indicate a wide-open race for the title.

Only four teams ranked in the media’s final regular season poll are in Lexington this week — No. 1 Warren Central, No. 4 George Rogers Clark, No. 8 Douglass and No. 9 Lyon County.

Perhaps the truest indicator of postseason success was the Herald-Leader’s preseason top 25 poll voted on by the state’s coaches back in November. Ten teams here in March ranked among the H-L’s preseason top 25 with the four teams named above along with North Laurel (4), Male (6), Ashland Blazer (8), Woodford County (13), Breathitt County (24) and Jeffersontown (25).

In addition, McCracken County, Owensboro and Pulaski County all received preseason coaches’ votes as someone they would rank as one of the state’s best teams.

5. Wait, who’s No. 1?

While Warren Central (32-1) ranks No. 2 in this field by our Cantrall Ratings. The Dragons are the No. 1 team in the state according to four different measures, the KHSAA RPI, the final media rankings, the Massey Ratings and KSR’s poll. MaxPreps ranked Warren Central No. 2 in the state in its final rankings behind Douglass-ousted Lexington Catholic.

6. More Mr. Basketball candidates

In addition to Sheppard and Morton, there are two other Mr. Basketball candidates in the field as their respective KABC region player of the year. Neither have announced their college plans, yet.

▪ Jack McCune of McCracken County (18.1 ppg), a 6-foot-4 forward, has helped lead the Mustangs back to the state tournament under first-year coach Dustin Roberts. McCracken has been to five of 10 Sweet 16s since its founding in 2013.

▪ Chappelle Whitney of Warren Central (16.8 ppg), a 6-foot-5 forward, helped bring the Dragons within one possession of a Boys’ Sweet 16 title last season.

Mr. Basketball voting has already taken place and the winner will be revealed at the 12th annual Mr. and Miss Kentucky Basketball Awards Ceremony on March 19 at the Griffin Gate Marriott in Lexington.

7. Like father, like son

Woodford County sophomore Jasper Johnson is the son of former Harrodsburg, University of Kentucky and NFL football player Dennis Johnson, now the Yellow Jackets’ head football coach and athletic director.

Like his father, Jasper has now reached the state basketball tournament. The 6-foot-4½ point guard leads Woodford in scoring with 20.9 points per game. Dennis Johnson played on Harrodsburg’s 1996 Sweet 16 team.

Unlike his dad, Jasper will not give up basketball for football. In fact, Coach Johnson has said his son probably played his last down on the gridiron last fall.

Jasper rates as a five-star basketball recruit and the No. 26 sophomore in the nation, according to 247Sports.com’s composite index. He already reportedly has offers from six colleges, including Texas A&M and Louisville.

8. Other names to know

Some other talented players in this year’s field who are being recruited by colleges include: Ashland Blazer’s Zander Carter (22.3 ppg), a 6-6 sophomore; Male’s Cole Edelen (15.8 ppg), a 6-2 freshman; Elizabethtown’s Ayden Evans (16.1 ppg), a 6-8 junior; Newport’s Taylen Kinney (14 ppg), a 6-0 freshman and James Turner (8.7 ppg) a 6-7 freshman; Breathitt County’s Austin Sperry (18 ppg), a 5-4 sophomore; Warren Central’s Kade Unseld (15.9 ppg), a 6-5 junior; and Woodford County’s John McCrear, a 6-9 senior signed with Murray State, who recently returned to action after a season-long injury.

9. It’s not how you start …

Half of this year’s teams are here despite some rocky starts and uneven campaigns.

▪ Ashland Blazer went 7-6 in December.

▪ Breathitt County lost five of seven over the holidays.

▪ Jeffersontown fell off the radar after going 8-9 over the first two months.

▪ Male lost seven of its first 10 games.

▪ Martin County lost eight in a row beginning with its All “A” Classic defeat to Evangel Christian on Jan. 27.

▪ North Laurel lost nine of 15 games from mid-December to mid-January.

▪ Owensboro lost seven of 11 games from January to mid-February.

▪ Woodford County was 5-9 on Jan. 6.

10. ‘Interim’ and feeling fine

Three Sweet 16 coaches took over their programs this season on an “interim” basis.

While Breathitt’s Kyle Moore might step away from the court since he’s also athletic director and head football coach, Frederick Douglass’s Wes Scarberry and Ashland’s Ryan Bonner figure to be more permanent solutions after their region championship runs.

11. Returners and newcomers

Lyon County, Warren Central, Jeffersontown, Male, George Rogers Clark, North Laurel and Ashland Blazer are all making return trips to Rupp. Clark is making its fourth straight appearance.

This is the Sweet 16 debut for Frederick Douglass.

Martin County, formerly represented as Sheldon Clark High School, is making its third appearance. The Cardinals last won the 15th Region title in 2020 when the tourney was canceled by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Owensboro has the most appearances (43) and four state titles, a distinction also held by Male and, coincidentally, the Red Devils’ first-round opponent, Ashland Blazer, which has the second most state trips with 36.

12. Toughest draw

The KHSAA’s random draw created a meat-grinder Thursday bracket with five of the eight teams ranked in the top 10 at various points in the season.

The North Laurel/George Rogers Clark path to Saturday night would have to be considered the toughest. From there, that winner could face Lyon County and then Douglass before getting Warren Central in the finals if the Cantrall Ratings hold.

13. Battle tested

Male, out of Louisville’s 7th Region, has faced the toughest schedule of the 16 region champions, according to a glance at the “Opponents Winning Percentage” that is compiled by the KHSAA as part of its RPI Ratings formula. The Bulldogs foes’ averaged a 0.62520 winning percentage.

George Rogers Clark (0.59196) has actually faced the most teams in this year’s field with wins over Ashland Blazer and Male and a loss to Douglass. No other teams have faced more than two of this season’s region champions. Elizabethtown, Newport and Pulaski County have faced none.

14. Easiest trip to Rupp?

Douglass, with an opponents’ winning percentage of 0.51501, has benefited from the weakest schedule, according to the RPI.

But the Broncos topped defending state champion Clark and knocked off top 10 teams Lexington Catholic and Great Crossing to get here.

15. Top team stats

Scoring offense (ppg): Lyon County, 83.9. Scoring defense (points against pg): McCracken County, 48.6. Scoring margin (ppg): Warren Central, 24.1. Field goal percentage: Woodford County, 53.5. Three-point field goal percentage: Male, 42.4. Free throw percentage: North Laurel, 78.5.

16. Top individual stats

Scoring (ppg): Travis Perry, Lyon County, 32.2. Rebounding (rpg): Brady Shoulders, Lyon County, 11.1. Field goal percentage: Trent Edwards, George Rogers Clark, 63.4. Three-point shooting: Travis Perry, Lyon County, 4.8 makes per game. Three-point percentage: Travis Perry, Lyon County, 45.4. Free throw percentage: Reed Sheppard, 88.6.