Siena poll finds Gov. Hochul leads likely Dem contenders, crime biggest issue for voters
ALBANY — Gov. Hochul’s frontrunner status among likely Democratic challengers was confirmed Tuesday by the latest Siena College poll.
The incumbent governor outperformed a handful of potential primary opponents by between 14 and 19 points in three hypothetical scenarios for next year’s June contest. The Siena survey is the second in a matter of weeks to find Hochul, the only announced candidate at the moment, emerging as the early leader.
In one potential five-way primary, Hochul led with 31%, followed by former Governor Andrew Cuomo, 17%, Attorney General Letitia James, 14%, Public Advocate Jumaane Williams, 7%, and Mayor de Blasio, 6%, according to the survey.
Should Cuomo remain on the sidelines, Hochul would get 39%, James 20%, de Blasio 10%, and Williams would receive 8%.
In a head-to-head match-up, Hochul leads James 47% to 31%, the poll found.
Pollsters warn it’s still very early in the race and the Buffalo native has her work cut out for her with COVID, a faltering economy and concerns about crime. It also remains to be seen who exactly will enter the fray.
“Predicting June’s Democratic gubernatorial ballot 36 weeks from primary day, four months before a state party convention with only Hochul declared is not for the faint hearted,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “That said, Siena presented Democrats with three potential primary matchups and in each case, Hochul leads by double digits. But let’s repeat, we are 36 weeks away with an unknown field, and most potential candidates being, like Hochul, largely unknown to a wide swath of voters.”
Still, the sitting governor is racking up early support, earning the endorsement of state Democratic Party chairman Jay Jacobs, Emily’s List and longtime Cuomo booster Hazel Dukes, the head of the NAACP New York.
A steady 42% of New York voters said they have a favorable view of Hochul, the same as Siena’s September poll. Hochul assumed office in late August after Cuomo resigned in the wake of a damning report from James office detailed claims of sexual harassment.
Overall, New Yorkers are divided on how Hochul has handled the office over the past two months with 43% saying she’s done a good job and 45% marking her job performance as poor.
On specific issues, Republicans and independents gave the governor negative ratings when it came to the pandemic, handling natural disasters, the economy and cleaning up corruption in Albany.
Democrats gave Hochul positive grades for most issues.
Among all voters, 82% said that reducing crime in communities across the state is very important to them.
Other issues New Yorkers say need to be addressed include systemic racism, with 61% of respondents saying they consider it to be very important. While 76% of Democrats believe racism is a major issue, only 39% of Republicans consider it a top priority. Whether COVID vaccinations were important was also split among party lines, with 91% Dems saying getting more New Yorkers immunized is important and only 57% of Republicans are of the same mind.
About half of all those polled believe that making sure landlords are reimbursed for lost rent due to eviction moratorium is very important.
“While it may not be surprising that Republicans, Democrats and independents don’t agree on the importance of addressing systemic racism or ensuring more New Yorkers get vaccinated, it should be noted that when it comes to the importance of reducing crime and reimbursing landlords for lost rent, there is virtually no difference of opinion among Democrats, Republicans and independents,” Greenberg said.
