Shohei Ohtani and who else? Ranking 10 more 2023-24 MLB free agents in crucial contract years

MLB’s winter free-agency bonanza — featuring monster deals for Aaron Judge, Jacob deGrom, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts, plus the Carlos Correa saga — got everyone excited for the next cycle of intrigue. Then some teams took a look at those bidding wars and upped the ante to remove some of the big names from the 2023-24 offseason docket. Manny Machado inked an extension with the San Diego Padres ahead of what would've been an opt-out decision. Rafael Devers signed on long-term with the Boston Red Sox.

There’s now one shining star standing even more head and shoulders above the pack: Shohei Ohtani. The incomparable Los Angeles Angels two-way star, fresh off a global moment in the World Baseball Classic, is in his walk year and has expressed a desire to win — very cordial code for “probably leaving the Angels.”

Suffice to say, Ohtani is the most notable, most intriguing player in a contract year. But he’s not the only one, and many a team will be seeking upgrades outside the Ohtani realm. So with the vast majority of the baseball season still ahead of us, let’s talk about 10 players besides Ohtani who could be the headliners.

1. Matt Chapman, Toronto Blue Jays third baseman

Meet the star who could go from under-the-radar to very much on it very quickly. A linchpin of the competitive Oakland Athletics teams a few years ago, Chapman was a down-ballot MVP candidate in 2018 and 2019, thanks to superlative hot-corner defense and serious thump. In the interim, he was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays — the fate of all great A’s third basemen now, apparently — and his production drooped a little under the weight of hip and shoulder injuries.

Still, Chapman’s defensive acumen and power — he hit 27 homers in each of the past two seasons — make him a relentlessly productive player. Depending on which WAR model you consult, he ranks as a top-10 to top-15 position player in baseball since 2018 (his first full season). Others in his orbit include Marcus Semien and Xander Bogaerts, so the long-term track record says Chapman is looking at a payday of $170 million or more. And that’s before we consider what sort of splash he might make in 2023.

So far, it's a very big splash. It’s too early to get too excited, but we can’t skip over mentioning that Chapman has been the best player in baseball through 11 games. That’s not important on its own, but the way he’s doing it could point to the potential for a return to MVP contention.

As Ben Clemens notes at FanGraphs, Chapman has altered his stride when he swings, using a toe tap instead of a full step to keep a sturdier base. Soon to turn 30, he has always hit the ball hard — frequently rating among the league leaders in whatever measure of exit velocity you want to use — but he has not always made consistent contact or consistently useful contact to help round out an offensive profile beyond the power. So far, though, the adjustments are helping Chapman connect on more swings and sprinkle more line drives into his fly-ball-heavy profile.

As far as contract-year ceilings go, Chapman has the highest demonstrated potential among pure position players.

2. Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher

3. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies pitcher

The choice between Urias and Nola could be a fascinating one if they both reach the market. Urias will be only 27 years old when he begins his next deal, absurdly young for a free-agent pitcher, and he has firmly established himself as an ace the past two seasons. After injury-riddled and innings-limited early seasons, he tossed 175 frames last season with a sterling 2.16 ERA, following up 185 2/3 frames of 2.96 ERA ball in 2021.

Nola will be entering his age-31 season in 2024 but has a longer track record of dominance and durability. Only Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings since 2017, and Nola has performed like a top-15 starter throughout, with K-BB% and underlying metrics supporting his case as a consistent No. 1.

The actual ERA numbers have not always lined up, though. Granted, that is probably a reflection of the spotty defenses the Phillies have trotted out behind him, but the contract year microscope will undoubtedly zoom in on how Nola limits contact and damage around his many strikeouts and sparse walks. Coming off a lengthy postseason run, he has had a tough go out of the gate, with a 7.04 ERA through three starts.

4. Amed Rosario, Cleveland Guardians shortstop

And now we get to the drop-off. This is not going to be your 2022-23 shortstop market. Or your 2021-22 shortstop market, for that matter. Rosario has taken good steps forward since coming to Cleveland in the Francisco Lindor trade, but he's still the second-best prize of that deal behind Andrés Giménez, whom the Guardians signed to an extension.

Rosario is a lanky, whippy athlete, but he simply has not shown the plate discipline to fully tap into his physical gifts in the majors. Hitting .280 with 10-plus homers and about 15 steals while playing shortstop — exactly what he did the past two seasons — will keep a man gainfully employed, but as Dansby Swanson showed last season, a usefully timed career year could reel in more serious interest.

Still only 27 years old, Rosario could boost his profile by getting more power in games or solidifying his stature as a defensive shortstop.

5. Harrison Bader, New York Yankees center fielder

Here we have a contract year that has yet to begin because of an oblique injury, which is sort of the whole question. Bader is a stellar defensive center fielder, but if he leaned into pull power, he might rocket up teams’ priority lists. Alas, the other thing he has to work on is staying on the field.

6. Teoscar Hernández, Seattle Mariners right fielder

Hernández has pretty much the opposite profile. He’s a bat-first outfielder who consistently hits. He’s not the most spectacular player, but his 130 wRC+ means he has been 30% better than an MLB-average hitter since 2020, and the shape of his production with the bat can look an awful lot like a typical season from Rafael Devers or Austin Riley.

With Devers and now Ian Happ reportedly locked up via extension, Hernández might wind up as the most bankable lineup oomph available below the Ohtani tier this winter.

7. Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins pitcher

It feels like Gray has been around forever, but the diminutive right-hander is only 33, which doesn’t count as particularly old in the current pitching landscape. He has been nothing but good on either side of a disastrous Yankees stint. Since 2019, he has the 12th-best park-adjusted ERA of any starter (min. 400 innings), and he has evolved into a true strikeout pitcher, brightening his long-term outlook.

Gray is a breaking ball maven, putting a heavy focus on his curveball and the sweeper that more of his Twins teammates are turning to this season. Expect Gray to be sought after as reinforcement for a contending team on a deal similar to Chris Bassitt’s three-year, $63 million pact with Toronto.

8. Blake Snell, San Diego Padres pitcher

9. Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals pitcher

10. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox pitcher

And now for the rolling dice of pitching. Snell, an AL Cy Young winner with the Rays, hasn’t been able to harness his command well enough to be That Guy in several years.

Flaherty and Giolito, meanwhile, have fallen well behind their high school teammate Max Fried not because of a lack of talent but because of a lack of consistency. Flaherty is the youngest of this bunch, but he has thrown only 114 1/3 innings the past two seasons. In the early going this year, his control has been way off; he’s walking more than a quarter of the batters he faces. After a tantalizing breakout in 2019, he might still have the highest ceiling, but a lot of fine-tuning will be needed for him to prove he’s a frontline starter.

Giolito has been backsliding in several ways since his great showings in 2019 and 2020. His fastball has lost a tick, down into the less impressive 93 mph range, and he has tried to compensate by throwing more off-speed stuff. His strikeout rate has kept slipping, though, and last year, his ERA exploded to a below-average 4.90. This season will have a huge say in whether he locks down a multiyear deal or enters free agency as a fringe rotation arm.