Severe weather, flood risk to ramp up in south-central US this week
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A stormy pattern that has been on AccuWeather meteorologists' watchful eye since mid-March will evolve into a heavy rain event with severe thunderstorm activity over the south-central United States through Thursday. Enough rain could fall to trigger flooding, and severe thunderstorms may erupt and spawn tornadoes.
A jet stream pattern that pinned stormy conditions to the Northeast and the West much of last week will break down over the next few days. The result will be a jet stream that can allow a storm to develop slowly over Texas and crawl northeastward over the lower Mississippi Valley during the first full week of April.
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The slow-moving storm will grab copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and wring that out of the atmosphere by deploying torrential rainfall and severe thunderstorms.
There is the potential for 4-8 inches of rain to fall, with locally higher amounts from far northeastern Texas to northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas and northwestern Mississippi from Monday to Thursday. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ is currently set at 12 inches for rain across the South and Ohio Valley.
Localized flooding in urban and low-lying areas is likely throughout the zone, from near the Rio Grande Valley through the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to the central and western Gulf coast.
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The overall zone of heaviest rain may shift as the days progress. Heavy rain overlapping day after day could cause small stream and secondary river flooding to escalate. Motorists in the region, including those heading home from viewing the solar eclipse, should anticipate delays due to excessive rainfall. In some cases, an alternative route may be needed.
At the very least, the rain will slow travel in the region, putting a major damper on outdoor plans and spring sporting activities.
Areas of drought have shrunk and disappeared since last summer thanks to periodic drenching storms this fall, winter and early spring. This means that the ground may not be able to handle as much rain as it did in prior months.
Severe thunderstorms are also a concern in part of the region.
"While the extent of severe weather may be limited by the scope of cloud cover and vast areas of drenching rain, some robust storms are still likely over the next several days," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
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All modes of severe weather are possible, ranging from high winds and hail to tornadoes and waterspouts, with this risk lasting from Monday to Tuesday night.
The storms' intensity may increase if the sun can break out and warm the environment for several hours. Building warmth near the ground often boosts the vertical development of clouds. The taller the clouds, the greater the risk of severe weather.
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People remaining at campsites or continuing their vacation following solar eclipse viewing in unfamiliar surroundings should be prepared to take action if severe weather warnings are issued.
"We want everyone to have multiple ways to get severe weather alerts, especially when they're traveling in unfamiliar areas," AccuWeather Senior Director of Forecasting Operations Dan DePodwin said. "If you're staying in a location with limited cell phone signal, ask employees about their weather plan and how they'll notify visitors if a severe storm is approaching. Do not assume that there are loudspeakers that issue warnings or tornado sirens."
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The severe weather potential will shift slowly to the east on Wednesday and Thursday along the Gulf Coast states as the storm crawls over the middle Mississippi Valley.
The same storm will eventually return wet weather to the Northeast later in the week.
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