Severe storms will threaten Ohio, western Pennsylvania into Thursday evening
The threat of severe thunderstorms will shift east into Thursday evening to target portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, one day after racing through the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley. The storms will unleash soaking rains and could even trigger strong winds and tornadoes, according to AccuWeather forecasters,
Storms will track unusually far to the north for the middle of winter. Some areas that will be at risk of damaging storms are more used to cold and snow this time of year than the loud roar of thunder.
"The thunderstorms will be in association with a strong storm tracking across the southern Great Lakes," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys. The same storm will spread a swath of accumulating snow from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest through late this week.
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A cold front extending south from the storm to the Gulf Coast will also prove to be a focal point for thunderstorm development as it moves to the east.
Thunderstorms are forecast to track eastward in a line, which can reach as far east as northern Georgia, the Carolinas, Virginia and even the Delmarva Peninsula by nightfall.
Farther north, thunderstorms will come in two rounds in parts of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. The first round already occurred in the morning and produced heavy, soaking rain. During the afternoon and evening, storms will operate in one or more individual lines.
The storms later in the day are expected to be the strongest, likely first developing in eastern Indiana and western Ohio then expanding and rolling east through far southern Michigan, Ohio and Kentucky then into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania.
There will likely be a few lines of storms with brief heavy rains that can lead to flash flooding, as well as damaging winds, according to Roys.
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Due to the fast-moving nature of the storms, the flooding threat should mainly be confined to highways and poor drainage areas rather than creeks and streams. However, it could coincide with the evening commute. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 50 mph could accompany that heavy rain in a few storms, dramatically reducing visibility for motorists, while also bringing down tree limbs and power lines.
There is also a small chance that a tornado or two could develop in Ohio and nearby areas late in the day. This area is closer to the overall storm system and where winds will be changing with increasing atmospheric height, indicating a higher chance that a tornado could spin up.
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Some cities and highways that may have to contend with the threat of gusty, drenching storms include portions of I-70 between Dayton, Ohio and Wheeling, West Virginia; I-71 from Cincinnati, Ohio to Cleveland; I-75 from Toledo to Cincinnati; and I-80 across northern Ohio.
The threat of severe thunderstorms as far north as Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania in January is rare and will be driven by an intrusion of unusually moist and mild air into parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Lightning and thunder can even advance to the north of the severe weather risk area into parts of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, western New York and southern Ontario, Canada. In the heart of winter, when snow and bitter cold are often more on the mind of residents in these locales, the loud roar of thunder will seem very misplaced.
In areas from the central part of the Carolinas, on toward Maryland and Delaware, gusty winds, some with thunder and lightning can occur.
The cold winds of winter will make a quick return in the wake of the thunderstorms, as a cooler air mass could trigger lake-effect snow showers downwind of the Great Lakes from Thursday night into Friday. Only a modest drop in temperature is expected behind this front in the South.
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