How to make sense of the wildest Big 12 basketball title race in conference history

You don’t need a dictionary to define the word “parity.” A screen shot of the Big 12 basketball standings will more than suffice.

Seriously, one look at the conference’s championship race in late January is enough to make even the most knowledgeable college hoops expert scratch his or her head and wonder how things will eventually shake out. The standings have never been more jumbled.

Three teams are currently tied for first place at 6-2: Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas.

Three more teams are lurking one game back at 5-3: Baylor, Kansas and TCU.

All six teams are ranked in the top 20 of the national polls and all six teams are projected to earn a No. 4 seed or better in the upcoming NCAA Tournament by ESPN.

We are eight games into the Big 12’s grueling double-round-robin schedule and more than half the teams in the conference still have a realistic shot at hoisting a trophy in early March as league champions.

This is unprecedented stuff.

“When we were picked 10th in the league,” K-State coach Jerome Tang said, “I said, ‘Well, heck, all 10 teams in the conference are going to the NCAA Tournament,’ because I thought we were an NCAA Tournament team. That’s how good our conference is this year. Every night you are going to be in a battle.”

Perennial league favorite Kansas is riding a rare three game losing streak (just the fourth time that has happened under Bill Self) and its coach doesn’t see any major reason for alarm.

His reasoning: Not many teams would have gone unscathed against K-State, TCU and Baylor in back-to-back-to-back games.

“The people that feel the sky is falling because we’ve lost three in row probably don’t really understand the talent level of the opponents we’ve played here of late,” Self said on his weekly radio show. “We could have our team in 2008 or 2022 lose three in a row to the teams we just played.”

To illustrate just how many possibilities there are moving forward, college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy is currently projecting four teams (Iowa State, KU, K-State, Texas) to share the regular-season crown with records of 11-7. In that scenario, Baylor and TCU would finish oh so close behind them at 10-8.

No more than two teams have shared the Big 12 title at the end of the regular season before. No team has ever won the prize with more than five conference losses.

Both of those stats could easily change in a few months.

So who is the favorite?

Bart Torvik, another college hoops statistician, thinks Iowa State is the current front-runner. He gives the Cyclones a 22.4% chance of winning sole possession of the conference title, followed by Texas (15.1%), K-State (9.7%), TCU (8.4%), KU (5.8%) and then Baylor (5.8%).

Every team’s odds increase if you’re talking about a shared title. In that scenario, Iowa State jumps to a 41.4% chance with Texas (30.4%), K-State (22.1%), TCU (20.2%), KU (15.4%) and Baylor (15.1%) chasing the Cyclones.

If you believe in miracles, he also give Oklahoma State (0.3%) and West Virginia (0.1%) a tiny chance of sharing a conference title with one of the above teams.

The oddsmakers in Las Vegas see things differently. KU remains the betting favorite, per Fan Duel, at +320 with Baylor receiving the worst odds of the group at +650.

Poor Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU and West Virginia have been left behind.

K-State guard Markquis Nowell summed up the split between the top six and bottom four teams in the Big 12 following a recent victory over the Red Raiders.

“If they were in any other conference,” he said of Texas Tech, “they would be a really good team.”

One thing is for sure, the second half of Big 12 play should be fun to watch.

Here is a deeper look at why each of the top six teams in the Big 12 may win the regular season championship and why they may not.

Kansas State

Record: 17-3, 6-2 Big 12

Positives: The Wildcats already have impressive road wins over Baylor and Texas. They are also undefeated at home.

Negatives: Three of K-State’s conference victories came in overtime. It seems unlikely the Wildcats will remain undefeated in such down-to-the-wire games moving forward.

Outlook: Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson are two of the best players in the conference. Jerome Tang might be Big 12 Coach of the Year. This team has already exceeded expectations this season, but it isn’t satisfied with what it has accomplished.

Iowa State

Record: 15-4, 6-2 Big 12

Positives: The Cyclones own the biggest home-court advantage in the conference this season, winning all four of their Big 12 games inside Hilton Coliseum by an average of 17 points.

Negatives: Iowa State lost a game to one of the league’s non-contenders at Oklahoma State last week. Avoiding that type of result could be key in the Big 12 title race.

Outlook: No team has played better than Iowa State since conference play began, per Torvik’s ratings system. The Cyclones are two buckets away from being undefeated in the Big 12 with their two losses coming 62-60 at KU and 61-59 at OSU.

Texas

Record: 17-3, 6-2

Positives: Every time the Longhorns have lost this season, they have bounced back with a winning streak.

Negatives: Their next three conference games are Baylor, at K-State and at KU. Before that, they get to play Tennessee on the road. A losing streak may be coming.

Outlook: The Longhorns don’t seem to be missing Chris Beard at the moment. Marcus Carr and Timmy Allen have the team playing at a high level under interim coach Rodney Terry.

Kansas

Record: 16-4, 5-3

Positives: The Jayhawks started the season 16-1 and won their first five conference games with Jalen Wilson looking like Big 12 Player of the Year.

Negatives: Bill Self’s team hasn’t looked particularly good since it suffered an overtime loss at K-State. Allen Fieldhouse hasn’t exactly felt like a fortress lately, either.

Outlook: No KU team has ever lost four straight games under Self. Some coaching and lineup adjustments could get the Jayhawks back on track. But their margin for error is gone.

TCU

Record: 16-4, 5-3

Positives: When the Horned Frogs are at their best, they are untouchable. TCU has made both KU (83-60) and K-State (82-68) look overmatched in blowout wins this season.

Negatives: TCU is the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde team. Losses to Northwestern State and West Virginia balance out their impressive wins.

Outlook: If Eddie Lampkin can get healthy, this team has all the pieces to challenge for a Big 12 title. Mike Miles is one of the league’s best players.

Baylor

Record: 15-5, 5-3

Positives: This is the hottest team in the Big 12. The Bears have won five straight games, punctuated by a 75-69 victory over KU on Monday.

Negatives: Baylor got right against the bottom half of the league. It is only 1-3 against fellow contenders.

Outlook: Can a team win the Big 12 after starting 0-3 in conference play? We’re about to find out. Scott Drew’s team has more than enough talent to stay in this race for the long haul.