SEC championship: Who has the edge in Alabama vs. Georgia?
The SEC championship could hold more significance than any other conference title game in recent years due to College Football Playoff implications. The No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs face the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide in what is expected to be a spectacular matchup.
On the line
With Georgia ranked No. 1, a win locks up a spot in the CFP while retaining the top seed. If Georgia loses, then a can of worms opens up. There’s still an opportunity for Alabama to get into the final four as the SEC champion — though the waters are murky if Texas also wins the Big 12 title and Florida State wins the ACC. If Florida State loses to Louisville but Texas and Alabama win, there’s a chance we see both in the playoff and no Georgia (or Alabama/Georgia in and Texas out). Honestly, who knows what the committee will do. Root for pure chaos. This is the best version of the four-team playoff we’ve seen because of the possibilities that can occur.
How Alabama can win
Mobility. When talking about the nation’s top teams, the flaws are small. What is a vulnerability of Georgia that Alabama can exploit? The run defense via the mobility of a quarterback.
The Bulldogs allowed nearly 100 rushing yards to Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne. It was Auburn’s 219 yards of rushing offense that helped the Tigers hold 30 minutes of possession and be as competitive as they were in Week 6. Last week against Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs allowed 5.5 yards per carry to Yellow Jackets running back Jamal Haynes to go along with two rushing scores from quarterback Haynes King.
Alabama’s Jalen Milroe is a class above both Thorne and King. With the offensive line improving in recent weeks, it’s allowed Milroe more time in the pocket and gave him confidence to be more decisive, while thriving with his mobility.
In his last four games, Milroe has seven rushing touchdowns and 297 rushing yards, while taking just four sacks compared to 30 in his first seven games. It’s that mobility from Milroe that has allowed receivers to blossom downfield. Defenses have to account for both Milroe taking off and throwing it downfield. He's shown he can launch it, as witnessed last week with a fourth-and-31 touchdown to Isaiah Bond.
How Georgia can win
Defense. The eye test tells you the Bulldogs defense is not as strong as recent years. Georgia football is known for having a ruthless defense and a good offense. This year, Georgia has an exceptional offense with a good defense. One area where Georgia's defense does excel is on third downs; the Bulldogs are second in third-down conversions allowed behind Texas.
Against Auburn and Georgia Tech, games won by one score each, Georgia held its opponents to a combined 4-for-23 on third down. How do the Bulldogs continue that against Milroe and the Crimson Tide? Create pressure on the quarterback, force Milroe into third-and-long situations and make him beat you through the air. With additional pressure, turnovers or throwaways become possible.
Georgia vs. Alabama: Who wins?
Backing Alabama as an underdog is the move to make and if I like an underdog it’s because I think they can win. This is the best offense Georgia has faced. The Bulldogs have allowed 20 points or more to opponents ranked outside the top 50 in total offense. Alabama is a different beast with the ninth-graded offense per PFF and it has been pushed more against tougher teams this season.
Milroe was put to the test in his second start against a Texas defensive front that is one of the best in the country. Milroe went score for score with the single-best college football player in the country, LSU's Jayden Daniels. After getting wrecked in the first half against Tennessee (down 20-7), Bama shut the Vols down and overcame them to win, 34-20.
Those moments make Alabama ready for the biggest game of the year.
