Seattle Mariners season preview — do M’s possess baseball’s best starting rotation?

Baseball returns to the Pacific Northwest, and expectations are higher now for the Seattle Mariners than in two decades.

What will a new season bring?

Will it feature another magic carpet ride to the postseason, like when the team snapped its 21-year drought in 2022?

Or could it fall short again, after the Mariners finished one game shy of the playoffs in ‘23?

“Certainly, with the way our season ended, it was a sour note,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said to reporters at his introductory, spring training press conference back on Feb. 15. He did not mince words.

“You felt it talking to guys throughout the offseason. … They have a little chip on their shoulder. It was hard to watch the playoffs play out the way they did, with two teams in our division getting to the (ALCS) and one [Texas Rangers] winning it all. There’s fire in the belly, so to speak.

“We wanted to address certain deficiencies that we thought we had offensively… I think we have.”

The club’s known “doesn’t matter, get better” mantra lives on, but Servais and the Mariners highlight a new focus for 2024 – consistent, two-strike hitting. The front office certainly echoed the sentiment early in the offseason, dealing third baseman and 2023 AL strikeout leader Eugenio Suarez to the Arizona Diamondbacks in a November trade, and allowing right fielder Teoscar Hernandez (second-most strikeouts in AL) to depart for the Los Angeles Dodgers in free agency. That, with Seattle’s revamped emphasis on extending counts, has Servais “believing” once again.

With superstar center fielder Julio Rodriguez, an elite starting rotation, and the return of former fan favorite Mitch Haniger, the Mariners are again poised to knock on the door in 2024.

It’s the same young, uber-talented starting five in the rotation. The lineup, headlined by J-Rod, retains a core that features catcher Cal Raleigh and shortstop J.P. Crawford.

But are Seattle’s new additions, and a relatively stagnant payroll, enough to put them over the hump in a division that features the last two World Series champions?

“Every team at this time of year thinks they’ve figured it out,” Servais said last month, chuckling. “But then you have to play the games, get to know the players, and see how it all comes together.

“I love the fact that our fan base is as passionate as they are about it. It’s awesome. I want people to care about the Mariners. I want people to come to the ballpark and enjoy the product they’re seeing on the field. And really have their favorite player that they’re pulling for, and a guy that they can identify with, and help their kids identify with. And we have those types of players.

“Sometimes the offseasons go fast. It’s like wow, we were just here doing this. I can speak for myself, the coaching staff, and a number of players... This offseason went slow. I couldn’t wait to get back at it again, based on how we finished last year.”

MLB’S BEST ROTATION?

Seattle’s top-end trio of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert comprise the league’s best one-two-three punch — but are they, along with Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, the sport’s premier starting rotation?

MLB.com and numerous publications think so.

Castillo and Kirby both pose legitimate threats for the AL Cy Young Award. Gilbert should push for his first career All-Star nod, using a 6-foot-6 frame for elite extension with plus velocity and command. And Miller and Woo both enter their first full seasons after debuting in ‘23 with plus fastballs but equally-exciting secondary stuff.

“I think the rotation is perfect,” Castillo said last week through interpreter Freddy Llanos. “The bats are getting results. They’re hitting when they need to. I think this season, we’re going to have some great results.”

MLB.com, in a Mar. 21 ranking of baseball’s top starting rotations for 2024, put Seattle at the top.

Bleacher Report agrees. It recently ranked the sport’s overall pitching staffs and put the Mariners second only to NL’s Atlanta – but concedes the Mariners would rank first had relievers Matt Brash and new-addition Gregory Santos entered the season healthy.

Bleacher Report also writes that “top-to-bottom,” Seattle’s starting rotation alone is MLB’s best.

FanGraphs projects Seattle’s combined fWAR among starting pitchers to lead American League clubs (14.0) and rank fourth in MLB in 2024. Last year, the Mariners featured the only rotation in baseball that saw its top three starters (Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert) each notch 190 innings – and FanGraphs predicts the trio will repeat the feat, each with 3.0+ fWAR and sub-3.70 earned run averages.

Health is an obvious caveat, and Seattle’s rotation hit an early snag Monday, when general manager Justin Hollander announced Woo would begin the season on the injured list with right elbow inflammation. An MRI revealed no structural damage, and the club expects Woo to begin throwing by next week. Right-hander Emerson Hancock, Seattle’s 11th-ranked prospect, assumes Woo’s fifth slot on Thursday’s Opening Day roster.

Closer Andres Munoz and the bullpen will receive a boost when Brash, who throws one of the league’s nastiest sliders, rejoins the club potentially by early April, per Servais. There were early fears that Brash (elbow inflammation) could miss the entirety of the 2024 season, though later testing revealed no need for Tommy John surgery.

Seattle dealt reliever Prelander Berroa, outfield prospect Zach DeLoach, and the 69th overall selection in this year’s MLB Draft to the Chicago White Sox on Feb. 3 for Santos, a hard-throwing righty that mixes a high-90s fastball with a devastating slider that generated whiffs on 38 percent of swings in 2023. He will miss opening day with ongoing lat discomfort, though his injury isn’t considered long-term by the club.

“It definitely is the most talented rotation (since) I’ve been here,” Castillo said Mar. 19. “If they can stay healthy, we can be a very good team.

“You communicate with them so much that you become family. We’re a family on this team. That’s helped bring us together.”

MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince: “Health must cooperate. But if it does, then the Mariners arguably have the best blend of proven pedigree and immediate upside of any rotation in MLB.”

CASTILLO GETS OPENING DAY NOD

In mid-March, Scott Servais interrupted Luis Castillo’s daily workout and ushered the ace pitcher into his office with exciting news for ‘La Piedra’ – he would be Seattle’s Opening Day starter at T-Mobile Park.

“I’m a big fan of good news,” Castillo said to reporters, smiling.

His fourth career Opening Day start – two with Cincinnati and two in Seattle – Castillo will become the 10th pitcher in club history to notch consecutive Opening Day nods with the Mariners.

Thursday night, Castillo duels Boston’s Brayan Bello and the Red Sox at 7:10 p.m.

“It’s a big dream for any starter to have that Opening Day start,” Castillo said. “For me, it shows how much I’ve worked throughout my career.

“I’m already expecting the good vibes and energy from the fans out in Seattle.”

Throughout Castillo’s childhood, he watched and idolized Red Sox legend Pedro Martinez, a three-time Cy Young Award winner and World Series champion with Boston in 2004. If Martinez was on the mound, Castillo and his father were glued to the television.

“Let’s go watch Pedro,” Castillo’s father would tell him, Luis recalled to reporters.

The opposing Bello, 24, was asked a similar question. His response? A fond remembrance of Castillo’s early days with Cincinnati, who debuted for the Reds in June 2017.

“I grew up watching Pedro, and they’re growing up watching me,” Castillo said. “It makes me feel proud (that) they see me as a standard when I go up there and fight and compete on that mound.”

Castillo started 33 games for the Mariners in 2023 and went 14-9 with a 3.34 ERA, whiffing 192 batters in 187 ⅔ innings.

NEW FACES

A familiar face returns to T-Mobile Park’s right-field corner – Mitch Haniger is back.

An All-Star with the club in 2018 who mashed 107 home runs for Seattle between 2017-22, Haniger was acquired along with reliever Anthony DeSclafani from San Francisco on Jan. 5 for Robbie Ray.

“There are a lot of new faces here,” Servais said in February.

“And there are some old faces that have come back.”

Haniger, 33, signed a three-year, $43.5 million contract with the Giants after the 2022 season in his home state of California; now, he rejoins the team he first broke out with six seasons ago.

And of late, Haniger is raking. In 15 spring games, he went 15-for-35 and slashed .429/.487/.943 with five home runs, seven RBI, and 33 total bases, including a mammoth home run to left field in his first spring at-bat in Peoria on Feb. 25.

“I put a lot of work in this offseason, just trying to get deeper in the zone,” Haniger said of his swing Mar. 19. “Did some stuff with my load, back elbow, and some hand positioning that’s really helped. … Got here early and ironed some things out.”

Haniger missed at least 100 games in both 2022-23. The latter season, his lone campaign with San Francisco, was abruptly ended when Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty’s fastball last June 13 struck and fractured Haniger’s right forearm. But Seattle’s returning right fielder says he feels “really good” and perhaps fresher now than in any spring of his career.

“Biggest thing with Mitch? If we can get 140 games out of Mitch, we are golden,” Servais said.

In the hours following Haniger’s re-acquisition in January, Seattle traded infielder Jose Caballero to the Tampa Bay Rays for LF Luke Raley, a hard-hitting 29-year-old with a plus fielding arm.

Gone are third baseman Suarez’s “good vibes only” to Arizona. Gone are outfielders Jarred Kelenic and Evan White, along with southpaw Marco Gonzales, dealt to Atlanta in a December move designed to shed payroll. But Seattle soon filled the lineup’s glaring holes — acquiring 2B Jorge Polanco from the Minnesota Twins in late January for a four-player package that included DeSclafani and reliever Justin Topa, and added Santos from Chicago in February.

Seattle made their largest free agency splash before the new year, landing catcher/designated hitter Mitch Garver, 33, on a two-year, $24 million deal. Garver’s eye and willingness to take pitches — his 2023 chase and walk rates ranked in the 90th percentile or better, per Baseball Savant — starkly contrast a Seattle lineup that, in 2023, ranked 2nd in strikeouts among MLB clubs.

Haniger told reporters he expects to man right field routinely; Seattle likely platoons Raley and Dominic Canzone in left field, with Rodriguez in between.

The result is a $1.2 million increase in overall payroll – from $127.9 million to $129.1 million, per Spotrac – and a more contact-oriented group beneath its core.

“This is the best offense I’ve probably ever had, or been around,” Gilbert said last week. “Everybody is clicking. It’s like one to another. Sometimes, you face those lineups (where) you feel like you don’t get a break. That’s what I’m seeing from our offense. It’s pretty impressive. They’re doing it at the right time, too.”

2024 PROJECTIONS

Bleacher Report: 85-77

ESPN: 86-76

FanGraphs: 85-77

CBS Sports: O/U 87.5 wins

PLAYOFF ODDS

ESPN: 51 percent

FanGraphs: 60 percent