Scouting the Kansas Jayhawks + TCU Horned Frogs ahead of Saturday’s Big 12 hoops opener

The No. 2-ranked University of Kansas men’s basketball team will start conference play against TCU on Saturday.

The Jayhawks (12-1) defeated Wichita State last Saturday. The Horned Frogs, meanwhile, beat Texas A&M-Commerce on Monday.

KU has a 25-4 all-time record against TCU.

Here is a scouting report and prediction for the game:

No. 2 Kansas vs. TCU

When/where: 1 p.m., Allen Fieldhouse

TV/streaming: CBS

Opponent’s record: 11-2

KenPom (Ken Pomeroy) Ranking: 33

Betting line: Kansas is a 6.5-point favorite

All statistics are from KenPom.com, Hoop-Math.com and EvanMiya. KenPom stats only include Division I competition.

TCU Team Strengths

• Quality defense: TCU ranks No. 66 in the opposing team’s effective field goal percentage (46.8). In comparison, Kansas ranks No. 24.

• On the offensive glass: The Horned Frogs do an excellent job of getting second-chance opportunities, ranking No. 20 in offensive rebounding percentage (37).

• Shots inside the arc: TCU ranks No. 20 in two-point percentage (56.7).

TCU Team Weaknesses

• Lack of 3-point shooting: Like Kansas, the Horned Frogs don’t attempt a lot of 3-pointers. TCU ranks No. 340 in 3-point rate (28.3%). Meanwhile, KU ranks No. 311 (31.1%).

• Weak schedule: TCU hasn’t played many tough opponents, with a strength of schedule that ranks No. 345.

• Turnover issues: The Frogs struggle to take care of the ball, ranking No. 170 in turnover percentage (17.5)

TCU Name to Know

6–foot-7 senior forward Emanuel Miller (No. 2)

+ Leading scorer (16.3 ppg)

+ Five straight games with at least five rebounds

+ Sharpshooter (37% from deep)

+ Steals savant (1.6 per game)

- 3 turnovers apiece in the last two games

- Not much of a passer (2.6 APG)

Tale of the Tape

TCU loves to convert turnovers into fast-break points. Here, the Horned Frogs player stole the ball and quickly passed it to a teammate, who converted an easy bucket.

TCU ranks No. 22 in opposing team turnover percentage, so the Jayhawks will have their work cut out for them in trying to take care of the ball. If KU does turn it over, the objective will be to guard the rim instead of the 3-point line, because 91.9% of TCU’s shots within 10 seconds of a steal are at the rim.

Game Prediction

Last season, the Horned Frogs came to Allen Fieldhouse and dominated the Jayhawks.

Don’t expect the same result this time — so long as KU limits TCU’s impressive scoring inside the arc and turnovers on the offensive end.

This Horned Frogs team is impressive by most metrics, but the competition they’ve faced thus far this season (for the most part) hasn’t been stellar. The Jayhawks? They are battle-tested with a formidable strength of schedule.

KU coach Bill Self should have his squad ready for this one.

Kansas 76, TCU 67

Shreyas’ pick to cover the spread: Kansas (-6.5)

Shreyas’ season record: 9-2

Shreyas’ record against the spread: 8-3

KU Player to watch: KJ Adams

Adams will have a tough challenge guarding TCU’s Miller, but Adams should be up for the test.

Adams has the speed and strength to slow Miller down. As for the offensive end, Adams needs to play a pivotal role, whether scoring or his playmaking.