Here’s what SC may face during hurricane season 2023, according to new predictions

Patrick McCreless
JASON LEE/JASON LEE

The next hurricane season is creeping up fast and South Carolina again could be in the crosshairs.

However, hurricane season 2023 might not be as bad as last year.

Colorado State University researchers have released their early forecast, predicting a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2023. The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

The researchers predict 13 named storms for the season this year. Last year the Atlantic hurricane season had 14 named storms, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The 2022 season included Hurricane Ian, which, after plowing through Florida, landed around Georgetown, S.C. in September with sustained winds of 85 mph and caused coastal flood damage and the destruction of several large piers near Myrtle Beach.

Hurricane prediction breakdown

Of the 13 named storms predicted this year, the researchers expect six will become hurricanes and two will reach major hurricane strength, between category 3 and 5, with sustained winds of 111 mph or more. The team also predicts that 2023 hurricane activity will be about 80% of the average season from 1991–2020. By comparison, 2022’s hurricane activity was about 75% of the average season.

Probability of major hurricane landfall

  • 44% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880-2020 is 43%)

  • 22% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880-2020 is 21%)

  • 28% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average from 1880-2020 is 27%)

Reason for below average hurricane season

The researchers cite the development of El Niño as a primary factor for the possible below-average hurricane season this year.

“Current large-scale conditions and forecasts indicate that a transition to El Niño is relatively likely in the next several months,” the researchers’ report states. “El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. The increased upper-level winds result in vertical wind shear which can tear apart hurricanes as they try to form.”

However, the researchers stressed that there is still considerable uncertainly as to how strong El Niño would be this year if it does develop.

Hurricane prediction methodology

The researchers based their forecast on a statistical model, along with four models that use a combination of statistical information and model output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the UK Met Office, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici. These models use 25 to 40 years of historical hurricane seasons and evaluate conditions, such as Atlantic sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, El Niño and other factors.

SC hurricane preparedness

According to the South Carolina Emergency Management Division, South Carolina is one of the most vulnerable states to hurricanes and tropical storms all throughout the season. Here are four ways to prepare for the new hurricane season, according to the SCEMD.

Know your zone in South Carolina

State and local officials issue hurricane evacuations based on zones in coastal counties. Know your hurricane evacuation zone instantly with the SC Emergency Manager mobile app and Hurricane.sc, South Carolina’s online hurricane guide.

Prepare your home

Do a safety check to make sure your home is best able to withstand the effects of a hurricane. Have your roof inspected, double check hurricane shutters and make sure your insurance policies cover the types of damages hurricanes can cause. Make a list and take photos of your belongings as records.

Have a family emergency plan

Emergency responders across the state encourage residents to create a family emergency plan in the event of a hurricane, which should include an evacuation destination and agreed-upon meeting locations. In addition, residents should keep phones charged when possible and maintain a way to find out the latest information on storms and impacts to their home area. SCEMD’s Hurricane Guide provides more safety and planning recommendations.

Remember your evacuation route

Be aware of the closest hurricane evacuation route ahead of the upcoming hurricane season. This will allow for a more efficient and safer route out of the hurricane’s path. Once you’ve learned your route, stick with it and remember it. Rely on the blue hurricane evacuation signs, not GPS.

Hurricanes and tropical storms not only threaten the coast, but all areas of South Carolina. Storm surge and flooding are the most deadly and destructive hazards associated with tropical storms and hurricanes. High winds and tornadoes can cause severe damage to buildings and homes. All South Carolinians should take time to prepare this week by reviewing their family emergency plans, creating a disaster supply kit and talking with their families about what could happen during and after the landfall of a major hurricane.

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