A runoff rule for the 2023 KY governor primary? Some legislators are talking about it

A lot of candidates are already vying for a chance to unseat Gov. Andy Beshear in the upcoming 2023 GOP gubernatorial primary, and more might be joining them soon. As it stands, whoever gets the highest total of GOP primary voters come next May to vote for them will move on to the general election.

But there are talks – nothing more than that, they insist – among some elected officials with the power to change that.

Kentucky used to have a runoff rule, a threshold of 40% that gubernatorial primary candidates had to clear to win straight-up in the primary to become the nominee, but it was scrapped in a piece of legislation that Senate Majority Leader Damon Thayer, R-Georgetown, worked on in the late ‘00s.

Now, he says, there’s “chatter” in Frankfort of going back. Thayer – who often takes the lead on election matters for the Senate – said he understands both sides of the argument.

“I’ve always believed whoever gets the most votes should move on,” Thayer said. “I’m not a big fan of runoffs and jungle primaries that some of these states have, but there are some people who think that a candidate ought to reach a certain threshold in a primary to get the nomination. When it looks like everybody and their brother or sister is running for the Republican nomination for Governor, you know, it’s probably a valid point.”

House Elections Committee Chair Kevin Bratcher, R-Louisville, said that he’s been approached by “many people across the state,” none of them candidates in 2023, about a bill that would reinstitute the runoff rule at a 40% cutoff. He said he doesn’t feel strongly about it either way, but the potential for legislative action is on the table.

“If you get ten candidates, a really low number like 11% could technically win an election, and some people seem concerned about that. If you’re going to pick a nominee you need some consensus,” Bratcher said.

The Matt Bevin factor

Who would some Republicans want to prevent from winning the primary by implementing a runoff?

“There’s probably a short-run fear that a guy named Matt Bevin gets in the race,” Former Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson said. “You could speculate that he’d lose to anyone else in a head-to-head… Somebody like that who could win a plurality but not a majority.”

Bevin ended his term in 2019 unpopular among Kentuckians, but only lost in that year’s election to Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear by around 5,000 votes, or 0.4 percentage points. Bevin sparked some speculation about a potential run at the post when he showed up at two major Republican events – the Jefferson County Lincoln Day Dinner and the Country Ham Breakfast and Auction at the Kentucky State Fair – late last month.

Bratcher made it clear that discussions about such a bill have been “casual” thus far and that he would be careful not to “target” anyone or any specific race with an elections bill.

“Personally, I would never target anyone… It’s just the question of ‘should we have consensus for a nominee to go up against a rather popular governor,’” Bratcher said.

It’s safe to say that a runoff system could have drastically changed the state of Kentucky gubernatorial politics. The Republican primary that saw Bevin defeat U.S. Representative James Comer by 83 votes would have gone to a runoff; Andy Beshear’s victory over second-place finisher, and current Beshear administration official, Rocky Adkins would have also moved onto a runoff election.

Arguments against a runoff

One argument against a runoff election is the cost. It could be distasteful for fiscal conservatives – Republicans hold massive majorities in the House, 75-25, and the Senate, 30-8 – looking to save a buck.

“Elections cost a lot of money, and a runoff would cost a lot,” House Majority Floor Leader Steven Rudy, R-Paducah, said.

In 2020 Secretary of State Michael Adams, who offered no comment on the prospects of a runoff bill, said that statewide elections normally cost about $10 million.

One potentially fixable defect with the old rule, in Grayson’s opinion, was that the second place finisher had to participate in the runoff and wasn’t allowed to step aside for the sake of party unity.

And in some ways, Grayson added, a recent change to the law allowing candidates to file for governor without a running mate, a change that he long supported, encouraged the recent deluge of candidates.

Thayer agreed.

“A lot of these people who are running would have probably been on the ticket with another candidate if we had the old law. Now we’ve got more people running, and that probably gives credence to the argument that we should have a runoff if somebody doesn’t meet a certain threshold,” Thayer said.

“It’s probably something we didn’t consider when we changed the lieutenant governor selection process, but does that mean we’ll change it in January? Probably not, but we’ll see if something like that could gain momentum between now and then.”

One other drawback, Grayson and Rudy both mentioned, is that the window to file for governor in 2023 – early November to early January – ends before the General Assembly could change the law.

“Changing the rules after the filing window had been open, I think, would kind of leave a bad taste in everybody’s mouth,” Rudy said. “... I think we would be exposing ourselves for lawsuits, but I guess we’re the General Assembly and we can try anything.”

Candidates respond to runoff

Candidates, and potential candidates have responded to questions about the potential for a runoff election with a mix of indifference and outrage.

Rep. Savannah Maddox, R-Dry Ridge, does not like the idea.

“I would be vehemently opposed to changing the manner in which Kentucky’s elections are held, and I feel as though citizens would see right through any such effort undertaken by the political establishment to undermine the power of their votes,” Maddox, who has positioned herself to the right of many other GOP gubernatorial primary candidates, said.

Fellow Northern Kentucky candidate Eric Deters, who recently made headlines by hosting an event including several members of the Trump family, said that he also didn’t like the idea.

Some political observers across the state like Northern Kentucky University political science professor Ryan Salzman have guessed that next year’s Republican primary could see the winner, under the current rules, win with well under 30% of the vote.

Ryan Quarles was more circumspect in his response. He said that many Kentuckians he’s spoken with have been surprised to learn that there’s not a runoff threshold in place for gubernatorial primaries, but that he’s prepared to run under the current rules.

Auditor Mike Harmon, who is also in the crowded GOP gubernatorial field, said that he had been approached about the idea by members of the General Assembly around this year’s legislative session.

“I told them ‘well, if I was number one I wouldn’t like it. If I was number two, I’d think it was pretty good.’”

Harmon also said that he thought Bevin’s odds of getting in have increased of late, saying he thinks that Bevin eventually will take a stab at it, putting it at “about a 50/50” chance.

A spokesperson for Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who scored an endorsement from former preisdent Donald Trump in his 2023 bid for governor, has yet to respond. Former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft’s 2023 gubernatorial campaign spokesperson responded to an inquiry by stating that Craft will win the primary.

Somerset Mayor Alan Keck, who is seriously considering a run at the post, said he’d heard of some interest in a runoff.

“I don’t know how legitimate it is, but you play by the rules that are set forth,” Keck said. “Competitive primaries are healthy and If that means that you’ve got to do it twice, you’ll tell your story twice.”