Ron’s big day, Donald’s bad one leads to fears of GOP ‘civil war’ + More to come on abortion

It’s Monday, Nov. 14. The mid-terms are over but campaigns are not. Florida resident and former president Donald Trump is going to make sure of that on Tuesday.

HERE ARE SOME TAKEAWAYS:

The country is purple, but Florida is red: Republicans overtook Democrats in overall registered voters one year ago for the first time in state history and on Election Day the trend continued. DeSantis defeated Democrat Charlie Crist by 19 points. The Florida Cabinet will be all-Republican and the GOP will have a super majority in both chambers of the state Legislature.

Ron DeSantis had a big night. Donald Trump did not: DeSantis managed to flip eight of the 13 counties he had lost in his first election in 2018 and improved his performance in each of Florida’s 67 counties. Those gains propelled the Republican to the most lopsided victory by a Florida governor since 1982, when Democrat Bob Graham won reelection with more than 64% of the vote in Florida. It also positioned DeSantis as a potentially viable alternative to former President Donald Trump for the 2024 race for president.

‘Move on’ from Trump? Outside of Florida, the mid-terms became a referendum on Trump. Extremist candidates across the nation paid the price. As Trump-endorsed candidates did poorly, the buzz among establishment Republicans started to grow as they called for Trump to step aside. The Murdoch-owned New York Post blared in a headline Wednesday morning that DeSantis was “De-future” and it’s Thursday cover read: “Don (who couldn’t build a wall) had a great fall Can all the GOP’s men put the party back together again? Trumpty Dumpty.”

Pro-DeSantis super PAC emerges: John Thomas, a Republican political strategist who has offices in California, Texas and Tampa and had considered launching a super PAC last summer to support a DeSantis presidential run, revived the effort on Friday. He said he wants the PAC to serve as a campaign surrogate for DeSantis and give oxygen to the effort until he gets into the race. “As much as people in the party still like Trump, they like winning more,’’ Thomas told us. He’s naming the super PAC: “Ron to the Rescue.”

‘Civil war’ coming: Thomas also has a prediction: “It’s going to become a civil war.” Immediately after Election Day, Trump provided the first glimpse that the simmering intraparty feud had erupted into full view. In a scathing missive on Thursday, Trump blasted DeSantis as an “average Republican governor with great public relations” and accused him of “playing games” over a potential future presidential bid. DeSantis remained silent.

Trump has scheduled a “big announcement” Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago and he has all but said he’s going to announce he’s seeking re-election in 2024.

Does DeSantis get in early? The announcement will increase the pressure on DeSantis to decide. Does he announce early, to show he can do battle with Trump? Or does he wait until next spring and risk antagonizing Trump supporters who may have forgotten about the mid-term defeats by then?

Several political analysts we talked to spelled out why they think DeSantis announces sooner rather than later.

Rewriting the map: DeSantis decisively took Miami-Dade County by the largest margin of any Republican candidate for governor in at least the past 40 years on his path to re-election Tuesday night. It was also a 16-point improvement over his 2018 performance. He also improved by nearly 16 points in Hendry County and by more than 14 points in Osceola County. They are, not coincidentally, the three most Hispanic counties in the state, and DeSantis’ ability to win a larger share of Hispanic voters was a key driver of his remarkable victory.

Good night for many govs: Like DeSantis, Tuesday was a good night for several governors of both parties who had similar whopping margins: Mike DeWine, R-Ohio, 26 points; Jared Polis, D-Colorado, 19 points; Chris Sununu, R-New Hampshire, 16 points; Greg Abbott, R-Texas, 11 points; and Gretchen Whitmer, D-Michigan, 10 points.

Rubio nearly matches DeSantis’ margin: Marco Rubio, who unlike DeSantis stood by the former president at a rally in Miami two days before the election, defeated Democratic incumbent Val Demings with a 16-point margin of victory.

Fewer Black seats = GOP pickups: As of late Sunday, Republicans were still projected to have an historically narrow majority in the U.S. House and it appears that redistricting was the catalyst.

More specifically, the pickups by Republicans were enabled by the elimination of a Black plurality seat in Florida, held by U.S. Rep. Al Lawson, and the failure of legislators in Alabama, Louisiana and Georgia to draw Black majority districts after the U.S. Supreme Court decision last February to suspend the Voting Rights Act ban on racial gerrymandering. The Florida Supreme Court, it should be noted, also failed to enforce the state’s ban on racial and partisan gerrymandering in time for this election.

Cabinet is all GOP: Outgoing Senate President Wilton Simpson was elected agriculture commissioner and Attorney General Ashley Moody and state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis won second terms. The three Republicans dominated in fundraising as the state Democratic Party did not focus on the races. Simpson defeated Naomi Blemur, while Moody beat Aramis Ayala and Patronis won over Adam Hattersley.

GOP gets legislative super majority: Republicans secured not only a solid majority in the Florida House of Representatives and the Florida Senate Tuesday, they won a super-majority in both chambers. That gives GOP leaders unfettered control over the legislative process with the largest majorities in a decade.

More abortion restrictions coming: Supercharged by their supermajority, Florida legislative leaders confirmed they are prepared to discuss further abortion restrictions in Florida in the next year and the governor’s office said he “looks forward to working with the Legislature to further advance protections for innocent life.”

But how far they will go is the big question. Incoming Senate President Kathleen Passidomo told us that she wants to see the 15-week ban reduced to 12 weeks with the addition of an exclusion for rape and incest, which is currently not allowed. Incoming House Speaker Paul Renner said the House is likely to support additional restrictions as well but he was unwilling to “put a number on it.”

Passidomo and Renner also told us they’re planning an agenda of abortion limits, school reforms and tax breaks intended to encourage development of more affordable housing, among other things. One thing they don’t expect to do: provide much friction for the governor’s ideas. Instead of a check on his authority, they both said they consider themselves collaborators.

Will MD red wave hold? The red wave was a good omen for Republicans looking ahead to 2024 when the first Miami-Dade County election for sheriff since the 1960s will be on the ballot. Florida rules require partisan elections for sheriff, tax collector and election supervisor, posts currently reporting to Democratic Mayor Daniella Levine Cava but set to become independent under a recent amendment to the state Constitution.

Were Florida Hispanics the outliers? DeSantis’ large margin of victory was partly due to the support of Latino voters. While some pollsters and analysts say there is so far no indication of a wave of Latinos fleeing to the Republican Party, and there is evidence that they reject MAGA extremism, Republicans point to some Hispanic-majority districts that show historic gains for the Republican Party.

Turnout was down: Tuesday’s election was a return to the norm for one thing: voter turnout. While the state hasn’t released turnout numbers yet, the Herald’s analysis of final registration numbers and tallies from Election Day, vote by mail and early voting suggests that a bit more than 50% of registered voters cast a ballot in this year’s election, down from 63% turnout in the 2018 election, which had elevated turnout nationally as part of a Democratic wave.

Dems blame it on cash woes: A Florida Democratic Party bracing for a difficult Election Day was still shocked — and embarrassed — by Tuesday’s historic blowout defeat. Leading party operatives say there’s at least one simple explanation for the drubbing: The party didn’t have nearly enough money. Like “taking a butter knife into a machine-gun fight,” one party activist told us.

HD 106 recount and confusing endorsement: Former socialite and Republican candidate for House District 106 Fabian Basabe is headed to a recount with Democratic opponent Jordan Leonard, a Democrat from neighboring Bay Harbor Islands. Basabe led Leonard by 236 votes, or less than half a percentage point, with all votes counted.

Some Democrats were confused after Basabe touted support from Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez, a Democrat in a non-partisan seat who infamously called herself “the most high-profile Hispanic Democrat in the city of Miami Beach” while running for office last year, though she is not Hispanic.

Constitutional amendments fail: Three amendments to the state Constitution failed when they did not receive the 60% threshold needed for the changes to be approved. Amendment 1 would have allowed the Legislature to pass a tax exemption for homeowners that make their homes more resistant to flood damage. Amendment 2 would have abolished one process for amending the state constitution, the Constitution Revision Commission. And Amendment 3 would given an additional $50,000 homestead exemption for certain people — classroom teachers, law enforcement officers, correctional officers, firefighters, emergency medical technicians, paramedics, child welfare services professionals, active-duty military members.

Salazar and Moskowitz win: U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar, who beat Donna Shalala to get this seat in 2020, gets a second term representing Florida’s 27th Congressional District. Salazar, a former journalist born in Little Havana, defeated state Sen. Annette Taddeo in a margin of about 57% to 43%.

Democrat Jared Moskowitz beat Republican Joe Budd to win Florida’s 23rd Congressional District and become the newest member of the Florida delegation in Washington, succeeding U.S. Rep. Ted Deutch who retired after six terms in Congress.

Other House race victors included Democrat Frederica Wilson over Republican Jesus Navarro in a decisive near 72% victory for District 24; Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who has been in Congress since 2005, besting Republican candidate Carla Spalding for District 25; U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart of the GOP defeating Democratic newcomer Christine Alexandria Olivo; U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez, a former Miami-Dade mayor, won his second term in Congress against Democrat Robert Asencio.

New county commissioners: Voters elected two new members of the Miami-Dade County Commission on Tuesday, with Marleine Bastien winning the District 2 seat to succeed Jean Monestime, and Kevin Marino Cabrera winning the District 6 seat to succeed Rebeca Sosa.

Click here for all the statewide and South Florida election results

MD approves teacher pay hike: Miami-Dade public school leaders cheered the outcome of the district’s $400 million plan to increase property taxes to boost teacher pay and support school safety. The referendum, which faced an uphill climb as voters were already reeling from higher prices for food and gas and a rapid rise in interest rates, passed with about 65% of the vote with nearly all the county’s 1,049 precincts reporting.

DeSantis suspended candidate loses: Donna Korn, the longtime Broward School Board member suspended by Gov. Ron DeSantis in August, lost her race, vanquishing the possibility that DeSantis could suspend Korn a second time and install another ally on the board.

HERE’S WHAT ELSE WE’RE TALKING ABOUT

Voter cleanup that never happened: Remember the arrests of 20 people DeSantis said registered and voted illegally in 2020? Months later, we found two of the people arrested are still on Florida’s voter rolls.

Hurricane Nicole leaves 2 dead: The one-two punch, on already eroded beaches and swollen rivers, made a mild storm all the more devastating. The hardest hit spots were along the coast of east Central Florida, where Nicole’s waves stripped pool decks from condos and laid bare the concrete sheet pilings holding up oceanfront hotels. It also left at least two dead, a man and woman in Orange County electrocuted by a downed power line.

FTX bankruptcy to cost county: Founder Sam Bankman-Fried got a thumbs up from Miami Mayor Francis Suarez during a joint appearance last year when an interviewer asked the 29-year-old mogul if a crypto company approaching a $25 billion valuation really had the financial staying power to fund the full 19 years on its $135 million sponsorship deal for the city’s basketball arena. By Friday, FTX had declared bankruptcy for the FTX empire he launched just three years ago, and the failed project was raising questions about whether he will ever make good on his commitment to the city. There remains more than $100 million left to pay.

Levine Cava vetoes project: Facing the first expansion of the Urban Development Boundary in nine years, Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava on Thursday vetoed legislation allowing a nearly 400-acre industrial complex to be built on farmland currently outside the boundary that divides the suburbs from agricultural land and the Everglades.

FIU professors protest: Black and Hispanic professors at Florida International University have slammed the university administration for allowing former President Mark Rosenberg to return to campus as a professor in the spring, after he resigned in January amid a harassment scandal.

UF and FIU presidents confirmed: The Florida Board of Governors, which oversees the state’s 12 public universities, confirmed Kenneth Jessell as the sixth president of FIU and Nebraska GOP Sen. Ben Sasse as the next UF president.

Thank you for reading. Miami Herald Capitol Bureau Chief Mary Ellen Klas curates the Politics and Policy in the Sunshine State newsletter. We appreciate our readers and if you have any ideas or suggestions, please drop me a note at meklas@miamiherald.com.

Please subscribe! We are offering a special offer for you: Unlimited digital access of just $1.99 a month for newsletter readers. Please check it out!

Know someone who’d like to get this free newsletter? Send this to a friend to receive it weekly.