What role did unaffiliated voters play in Kansas abortion vote? What the data shows
Kansas’ primary election marked a decisive victory for supporters of abortion rights as the proposed amendment that would have removed the right to abortion from the state’s constitution failed by a margin of around 18 percentage points.
And though the election was a partisan primary, unaffiliated voters were able to vote on the amendment, and they may have played a significant role in the outcome.
According to Wednesday morning totals, around 718,545 Kansas voters cast ballots for Republican U.S. Senate nominees and Democratic governor nominees combined. This number combines the highest Democratic and highest Republican turnout in the parties’ respective statewide races, which Kansas Director of Elections Bryan Caskey said would give a good estimate of partisan turnout.
But these partisan votes only make up around 81% of the 908,745 ballots cast on the abortion amendment.
That means nearly 19% of Kansas voters, almost one in five of those who participated in this election, did so specifically to weigh in on the amendment.
These voters who didn’t vote in partisan races could be unaffiliated voters or party members who chose only to vote on the amendment. They may also be members of minor parties, like the Libertarian Party or the Green Party, who filled out independent ballots.
About 29% of registered voters in Kansas are unaffiliated.
“We decided to communicate with unaffiliated voters just like we would any voters in the state,” said Rachel Sweet, the campaign manager for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, which championed the ‘Vote No’ campaign.
“With any issue campaign, but especially with an issue like abortion and constitutional rights, we talked to voters across the political spectrum and made sure they were educated about the actual stakes.”
Former independent candidate for governor Greg Orman ran an independent campaign back in 2018 and said that unaffiliated voters can have a strong influence over the outcome of Kansas elections, especially those races that tend to be close between Republicans and Democrats.
“Obviously, last night was an indication of the role that unaffiliated voters play. I think they sent a pretty clear and unmistakable message,” Orman told The Star. “The Kansas City metro area has become more reliably purple, and in that area unaffiliated voters have a much greater impact on the outcome.”
How they voted
This gradient map shows how strongly counties went for either "no" or "yes on the abortion vote. Many counties throughout the state had closer margins than expected. These results are unofficial until certified by the Kansas Secretary of State's Office and could change as provisional and late-arriving mail ballots are processed.
Click on the icon in the upper left corner to minimize the legend panel.
Recent polling indicates that 61% of Americans, including 49% of Kansas residents, believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, according to a June 2022 study from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.
Some Kansans’ ballots have yet to be tallied, as they may arrive by mail over the next few days, and provisional ballots are still being verified. Kansas election law permits mailed ballots to be counted if they arrive up to three days after an election, as long as they are postmarked by Election Day.
Kansas Secretary of State Scott Schwab has until Sept. 1 to officially certify the results, but his office may act sooner.
Do you have more questions about voter turnout in Tuesday’s election? Ask the Service Journalism team at kcq@kcstar.com.
The Star’s Katie Bernard contributed reporting.
