Rochester's population boom is coming. But is the area ready?

ROCHESTER – Tens of thousands of new residents are expected to come here over the next two decades, thanks in part to massive projects like Mayo Clinic's ongoing $5 billion expansion.

Yet more people means more infrastructure, services and bills to pay for Rochester leaders, many of whom say action needs to be taken now to keep pace with the population boom.

"It's affordability at all levels," said Patrick Seeb of Destination Medical Center. "How do we create strategies that ensure there is continued opportunity for all members of our community to afford to live here and do business here?"

Local leaders met Thursday with Destination Medical Center (DMC) staff to review community needs in the wake of several large-scale projects over the next six years.

Meanwhile the DMC board approved about $12 million in funding toward housing developments and historic preservation — including $5 million toward a program to support Rochester's downtown historic commercial district.

DMC officials also signed off on at least $7 million in new housing projects – a $4 million senior housing complex as part of the upcoming bus rapid transit line and $3 million for a 319-unit apartment complex north of the Mayo Civic Center.

While Mayo moves forward with expansion plans, local leaders need to find housing for at least 2,000 trades workers coming to the area to build new Mayo facilities. The city is shepherding a massive bus rapid transit line to open in 2026. Meanwhile the county is worried over how it will help an increasing number of lower-wage workers get by.

There's the ongoing budget woes at Rochester Public Schools, the growing mental health and homeless crises throughout Olmsted County – even a new county jail will be needed in a few years as the current Olmsted County Adult Detention Center outlives its usefulness.

"It's not happening tomorrow or even next year, but it's these kind of investments that are going to be needed," Olmsted County Administrator Heidi Welsch said.

Local officials say they'll have to partner on more issues than ever before as Rochester, Olmsted County and the public schools system say they don't have enough resources to address major problems on their own. For example, Rochester's population has almost doubled in size over the past four decades, but city staff has increased by only 17% during that time.

Several groups offered positive signs of continued growth, however. DMC officials Thursday signed off on at least $7 million in new housing projects – a $4 million senior housing complex as part of the upcoming bus rapid transit line and $3 million for a 319-unit apartment complex north of the Mayo Civic Center. The Civic Center North Apartments project will also be eligible for up to $13 million in tax-increment financing breaks.

County officials are celebrating secured state funding for a new recycling facility that will also help process food waste, as well as ongoing funding for a major Highway 14/County Road 44 interchange over the next few years.

Rochester staff point to a recent City Council decision to grant $1.5 million to help the Rochester International Airport secure new flight routes to Phoenix and Florida using low-cost carriers. They also tout new, relaxed tax-increment financing rules they hope will attract more outside development.

The area's largest employer, Mayo, is charging ahead with expansion plans. Public review documents show the first phase of construction on nearly 2 million-square feet of new medical facilities will start in August. Mayo officials maintain the first buildings will open in 2029.

"We've got something really big now that we're headed into," Dr. Clark Otley of Mayo Clinic said. "I don't think any of us know what's going to hit us. It's going to be bigger than we think at the biggest."

Rochester city officials are shuffling to handle the incoming glut of infrastructure projects, with a new city administrator and community development staff. City Administrator Alison Zelms said she expects the additional tax base from completed projects will pay for expanded services – turning Minnesota's third largest city into a large-scale metropolitan area.

"Fortunately we have a lot of tools to get us there," Zelms said.