Will Rochester have a white Christmas this year?
With mild temperatures to start December, there is one question on the minds of many Rochesterians: Will we have a white Christmas this year?
What is a white Christmas?
The National Weather Service defines a white Christmas as having 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of Dec. 25. It need not snow on Dec. 25 to fit the weather service's definition of a white Christmas, but some flurries would certainly help put folks in the holiday spirit.
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Historically, the odds are in favor of white Christmas. Rochester has had at least one inch of snow on the ground on 56% of Christmas days since 1926, according to snow depth records kept by the National Weather Service.
What do forecasters say?
If conditions for a white Christmas exist, we likely will not know until at least a week or so before. If there’s significant, widespread snowfall about a week before and a forecasting model with strong confidence for cold enough temperatures, it could be as early as seven days ahead, said Steven Welch, National Weather Service Buffalo meteorologist. Otherwise, predictions for a white Christmas would be made three to four days ahead.
“If there’s snow on the ground, that’s a little easier to say yes or no further out in advance,” Welch said.
AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok said that in his forecast for December, "I don't see a lot of snow in the East, outside the mountains."
He added that "it doesn't look good" for the large northeastern cities to see a white Christmas, including New York City, Baltimore and Washington, D.C.
What are the typical odds for a white Christmas in Rochester NY?
Last year, there was an inch of snow depth, meeting the qualifications for a white Christmas. It was also a chilly 21 degrees, considerably colder than the average holiday high temperature of 36 degrees.
In the past decade, there were five years without a white Christmas and five with, including 6 inches of snow on the ground in 2017.
Year | Snow Depth |
2022 | 1 |
2021 | Trace |
2020 | 0 |
2019 | 0 |
2018 | 2 |
2017 | 6 |
2016 | 3 |
2015 | 0 |
2014 | 0 |
2013 | 2 |
The coinflip nature of white Christmases in Rochester is consistent looking back two decades, with half of those years seeing less than inch of snow on the ground. In the past 20 years, there’s only been one time at least an inch of snow falling on Christmas day, in 2017.
The Christmas storm of 1978 dropped 18 inches of snow on the city, including 1.5 inches of rain and snow on holiday. This was the single largest recorded snowfall on Christmas day in Rochester.
Rochester NY weather outlook for December
The National Weather Service observed below average snowfall totals in Rochester through November with just 3.3 inches, and December is expected to have a similar start.
The Rochester forecast calls for mild temperatures, with highs reaching the 50s on the weekend, and only nuisance snow through Wednesday. AccuWeather defines “nuisance snows” as less than two inches of snow which will not cause significant travel problems.
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The AccuWeather monthly forecast predicts above-freezing high temperatures through Christmas, including a 44-degree high and rain on the day. Forecast reliability drops as they look further into the future, with a five-day forecast at 90% accuracy.
The accuracy drops to 80% for a seven-day outlook and becomes 50% for a 10-day or longer forecast.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Rochester NY Weather: Will we have a white Christmas in 2023?
