The rest of Bill Belichick's career hinges on the next two weeks

Bill Belichick has coached 498 games (playoffs included) across 29 seasons with the New England Patriots and Cleveland Browns.

Nos. 499 and 500 could go a long way in determining how much longer he continues.

The Patriots are 1-3 and coming off an ugly 38-3 loss at Dallas. Quarterback Mac Jones continued to struggle in that one and was pulled in the third quarter. Breakout rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez was lost for the year with a torn labrum injury. Linebacker Matt Judon went down for at least two months, with torn biceps, as well.

The franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2018 season and is 26-28 over the past three-plus seasons. One reason: a lack of talent. Since 2012, the Patriots have had just one first-round draft pick become even a Pro Bowler — Jones in 2021, and only after multiple QBs opted out.

Belichick is 71 and has produced a coaching career as storied and successful as the NFL has ever known. He was even once famous for sputtering September starts developing into Super Bowl parades. That was when Tom Brady was around, though.

Meanwhile, Patriots owner Robert Kraft has made thinly veiled suggestions that no one, not even a legend, is unfireable, and he is getting impatient with sitting at home each January.

“It’s very important to me that we make the playoffs,” Kraft said last summer. “And that’s what I hope happens next year.”

Which brings Belichick to the next two weeks of the rest of his career.

Sunday brings a visit from a 2-2 New Orleans team with its own lengthy list of issues. The following week is a trip to a 1-3, offensively challenged Las Vegas club.

A good Patriots team wins both games. Even a decent Patriots team wins both games. These are the games that separate reasonable seasons from complete disasters.

Win those two and the Patriots look like a team that has enough competency to perhaps salvage some kind of a season against a fairly favorable schedule — still to come are the Giants, Steelers, Broncos and Jets, none of which currently has a winning record. There are also winnable swing games against Indianapolis, Washington and the Los Angeles Chargers.

Seven, eight, even nine victories aren't out of the question. Maybe that’s the playoffs. Maybe that’s at least good enough for Kraft to give Belichick more time to rebuild things (and chase Don Shula’s all-time win record of 347; Belichick has 330). With a quarterback-rich college draft coming, maybe Belichick can upgrade, even with a draft pick in the teens.

Lose them though? Lose at home to New Orleans? Lose to Las Vegas? Lose to both and … that isn’t the kind of team that should be confident in defeating anyone. It’s a sign of one of the worst teams in the NFL, a bottom falling out unseen in Foxborough since the 5-11 campaign of 2000, Belichick’s first as the Patriots' head coach.

And good luck blocking out the noise if New England is 1-5 and heading into consecutive games against Buffalo (home) and Miami (road).

Belichick isn’t getting fired during the season, but the drumbeat of doom would make it easier for Kraft to make a move come season’s end.

Belichick is Belichick, but this is the NFL, where the past never matters. He, more than anyone, is famous for fearlessly cutting fading heroes and former stars.

You have to prove yourself every week. In this case, that means forgetting about the beatdown in Dallas. The Cowboys are a viable Super Bowl team. New England played poorly.

Everything now hinges on beating the teams the Patriots can reasonably beat.

Belichick has given no indication he wants to retire, let alone overhaul how he runs things in Foxborough. He has two sons on his staff and most of his assistants came up through the New England system. For the most part, when a job opens, either a former assistant returns or someone is promoted from within.

The idea of a new general manager overseeing the roster or a new coordinator with very different ideas is difficult to fathom. It’s probably one reason for the struggles.

For decades the Belichick Way — the Patriots Way — was the only way. It worked and worked and worked like none other.

If Bill Belichick deserves, let alone gets, another season hinges on whether he can prove the Patriots Way still works. That starts by capitalizing on the two opportunities in front of him.

An average team would beat the Saints and then the Raiders and then point to possibilities ahead.

In games 499 and 500, can Bill Belichick get his guys to at least be that?