Recruiting reset: How are Kentucky and Louisville men’s basketball positioned for the future?

There’s a stark contrast in what the immediate future looks like for the two flagship men’s college basketball programs in the commonwealth.

While recent on-court success has fluctuated, Kentucky continues to recruit at a high level under John Calipari.

Now in his 14th season as UK’s head coach, Calipari is poised to bring in the best recruiting class in the country in 2023, headlined by top-end talent in both the backcourt and frontcourt, as well as an important UK legacy recruit.

The vibes are much worse some 75 miles to the west.

In addition to the substantial on-court issues that have plagued Kenny Payne’s first season as U of L’s head coach, there isn’t much in place right now in terms of future recruits.

The Cardinals currently have only two players in their 2023 recruiting class, and neither is ranked as a top-60 player in the 247Sports Composite.

For comparison, all five of UK’s incoming 2023 players are ranked among the top 29 players in the 247Sports Composite rankings.

With this weekend’s renewed rivalry matchup between Kentucky and Louisville as an anchoring point, let’s look at the recruiting outlook for both the Cats and Cardinals.

UK set to have best recruiting class in 2023

Kentucky’s 2023 recruiting class is set to be historically good.

DJ Wagner (No. 1 in the 247Sports Composite), Justin Edwards (No. 2), Aaron Bradshaw (No. 6), Robert Dillingham (No. 9) and Reed Sheppard (No. 29) comprise next season’s group of freshman Wildcats. This quintet will represent the best recruiting class in the country for 2023, edging out Duke for the top spot.

The associated milestones with this accomplishment are significant.

Kentucky hasn’t had a top-rated recruiting class, according to 247Sports, since 2020.

UK also currently has the commitments of the top two players (Wagner and Edwards) in the 2023 recruiting class.

This has never happened before for Kentucky when going off of the 247Sports Composite, which dates back to 2003.

Of course, there’s also the intrinsic value of Kentucky securing the commitment of Wagner over Louisville in dominating fashion: Wagner never even took an official visit to the Cardinals despite his grandfather, Louisville legend Milt Wagner, being U of L’s director of player development.

Meanwhile, Louisville’s two commits in the class of 2023 are a pair of small forwards: Kaleb Glenn (the No. 64 player in the 247Sports Composite) and Curtis Williams Jr. (No. 67).

Glenn committed to Louisville in September 2021, when former head coach Chris Mack was still at the helm of the program. Glenn signed his letter of intent to join Louisville in November, confirming his commitment to the Cardinals despite a coaching change.

Williams is one of two players to commit to Louisville with Payne as head coach. Williams committed in September before signing his letter of intent in November.

While Kentucky essentially got the players it most coveted in the 2023 recruiting class, Louisville lost some significant recruiting battles along the way.

Five-star combo guard AJ Johnson (No. 15 in the 247Sports Composite) opted to go to Texas, despite Louisville getting the final visit of his recruitment.

Four-star center Isaiah Miranda picked North Carolina State over Louisville in early December, and Miranda has already enrolled early with the Wolfpack.

What does 2024 and beyond look like for UK and Louisville?

Kentucky doesn’t have any committed players in the class of 2024, or beyond, while Louisville has one commit in the class of 2024.

Point guard TJ Robinson committed to the Cardinals on Halloween. Robinson is ranked by the 247Sports Composite as the No. 156 player nationally in the 2024 class.

Here’s a complete look at the players in the class of 2024 (and beyond) that hold a scholarship offer from UK and U of L.

Kentucky:

▪ PG Tahaad Pettiford (2024)

▪ PG Travis Perry (2024)

▪ SG Tre Johnson (2024)

▪ SG Ian Jackson (2024)

▪ SG Isaiah Elohim (2024)

▪ SG Darryn Peterson (2025)

▪ CG Boogie Fland (2024)

▪ SF Karter Knox (2024)

▪ SF Airious Bailey (2024)

▪ SF Amier Ali (2024)

▪ C Flory Bidunga (2024)

None of these players have committed to a college basketball program or a professional pathway yet.

It should also be noted that there is plenty of reclassification buzz around Jackson, whom Calipari watched play in person in December in New York City.

Louisville:

▪ PG Elliot Cadeau (2024 — committed to North Carolina)

▪ PG Rob Wright (2024 — committed to Baylor)

▪ PG TJ Robinson (2024 — committed to Louisville)

▪ SG Isaiah Elohim (2024)

▪ SG Jamari Phillips (2024 — committed to Arizona)

▪ SG Billy Richmond (2024)

▪ SG Jerry Easter (2025)

▪ SF Karter Knox (2024)

▪ SF Carter Bryant (2024)

▪ SF Trentyn Flowers (2024)

▪ PF Nicholas Randall (2025)

▪ PF Chris Nwuli (2025)

▪ PF Tyran Stokes (2026)

▪ C Flory Bidunga (2024)

While Louisville does already have a 2024 recruit committed to the program, the Cardinals are also out of the picture with a couple players due to commitments to other schools.

The most recent of these came Wednesday, when Cadeau — who is ranked by the 247Sports Composite as the top point guard in the 2024 recruiting class — announced he would be going to North Carolina.

Louisville had made Cadeau’s final list of six schools.

Three players hold both Kentucky and Louisville scholarship offers, and all three are in the class of 2024: Bidunga, Elohim and Knox.

Kentucky and Louisville in a recruiting battle for Karter Knox

The recruitment of Knox — a 6-5 small forward from Tampa — is shaping up to be a battle between the Cats and Cards, although it may not be a fair fight.

Knox is a UK legacy, one of the younger brothers of Kevin Knox II, the former Wildcat who was a lottery selection in the 2018 NBA Draft.

Knox has taken only two recruiting visits so far: To Lexington (for Big Blue Madness) and to Louisville.

There’s little mystery for Knox with the Wildcats given his brother’s time in Calipari’s program. This was something that Knox’s father, Kevin Knox Sr., discussed with the Herald-Leader in October.

“Karter is right in line with Kevin. And so, you just go ahead and just apply those same principles that we had with Kevin,” the eldest Knox said of the family’s recruiting approach. “If the wheel is not broke, I don’t have to fix it.”

Regardless of the strong ties that exist between the Knox family and Kentucky, Louisville has maintained an active presence in his recruitment.

During the City of Palms Classic this month — where Knox earned all-tournament honors after averaging more than 21 points per game — U of L assistant coach Nolan Smith was in the gym watching Knox play.

Earlier this week, another SEC school jumped into the recruiting race for Knox, as Arkansas offered him a scholarship.

What has gone wrong with Louisville basketball? And how quickly can Kenny Payne fix it?

From recruit to player to coach, Kenny Payne has long been part of UK-Louisville rivalry