Ravens vs. Chiefs: Here's our betting advice for the AFC Championship

Championship weekend gets underway with the Baltimore Ravens hosting the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game on Sunday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium.

Last weekend, the Ravens were tied going into halftime against an up and coming Texans team. Whatever was said in the locker room clearly worked for them as they outscored Houston 24-0 in a dominant second half performance from the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Baltimore’s taking part in their first AFC title game since 2012 when they defeated the 49ers in Super Bowl 47.

On the other side, the Chiefs continued their recent dominance over the Bills as they defeated Buffalo 27-24 in Orchard Park last Sunday night.

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In Mahomes’ first road playoff game in his career, the reigning Super Bowl MVP had only six incompletions, didn’t take a sack and tossed two touchdowns to tight end Travis Kelce for the first time this season.

The two-time Super Bowl champion has led Kansas City to at least the conference championship round in all six seasons since he was drafted No. 10 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft.

Similar to the 49ers-Lions, this the first meeting between these two AFC powerhouses in over two years. Their last matchup was all the way back in Week 2 of the 2021 regular season and it was a classic.

Down 35-24 after three quarters, the Ravens scored 12 unanswered points to pull off the thrilling 36-35 victory in Baltimore.

Can the Ravens advance to their first Super Bowl in over a decade or will the Chiefs win their fourth Lamar Hunt (AFC champion) trophy in five seasons?

Here’s my betting breakdown on the spread, total and moneyline for the AFC Championship game:

Ravens vs. Chiefs spread: Ravens -3.5 (-110), Chiefs +4 (-110)

The line opened with the Ravens as four-point favorites and has not had much movement since the percentage of bets is nearly split right down the middle.

Unsurprisingly, these were two of the best teams against the spread (ATS) as they each ranked inside the top-six in terms of covering this season.

Baltimore’s 6-4 ATS at home and Kansas City has covered in three of its prior five road games.

There’s no denying how dangerous it is to bet against Mahomes as an underdog. He’s 9-1-1 ATS and 8-3 straight up when the Chiefs are not a favorite.

Even with that being said, I anticipate this being the one score game that Baltimore will win so I’m laying the points here.

If you’re also in on backing the Ravens, wager on them now as only a couple of sportsbooks still have them as a 3.5-point favorite with most of them already having this one as a four-point spread.

Prediction: Ravens -3.5

Ravens vs. Chiefs total: Over 44.5 points (-108), Under 55 points (-110)

When you first think of this matchup, you automatically have Mahomes and Ravens’ QB Lamar Jackson on the mind.

In fact, there’s been at least 51 points scored in all four head-to-head meetings between the two MVP winners.

With all that being said, I’d bet on the under in this one.

The only thing these two franchises might be better at than covering the spread is playing defense. Both the Ravens and Chiefs rank inside the top-10 in multiple defensive categories.

Kansas City has gone below this number in seven of its past 10 games and Baltimore’s had totals of 44 or fewer points in five of their past 10 contests.

Furthermore, the National Weather Service is currently predicting there will be a 90 percent chance of rain on Sunday, meaning harder passing conditions and a better chance of sloppy football being played with potentially more negative plays than usual.

Given the history of when these two franchises face off, this is not a high bar by any means and I would not be shocked if this total goes over some point in the third quarter if both offenses are clicking.

However, with two of the best defenses going head-to-head and weather potentially being a factor, I’m wagering on the under in this one.

PointsBet SportsBook is the only betting site that offers a total of 45 points with a price of -110 (Bet $110 to win $100).

Prediction: Under 45 points

Ravens vs. Chiefs moneyline: Ravens (-195), Chiefs (+170)

To me, this game will be decided by who can get the defensive stops when they’re needed most. This will be an extremely hard fought game for both sides to try and stop two of the best franchise QBs in all of football.

For the Ravens, their number one priority has to be stopping Chiefs’ RB and former Rutgers star Isiah Pacheco. He’s ran for 89 or more yards in both the Wild Card and Divisional Round. You know head coach Andy Reid will want to establish the run with the Vineland native as he’s already had 39 carries through two games.

On the other side, will the Chiefs defense be able to contain Jackson? Bills’ QB Josh Allen just ran for 72 yards and two touchdowns last weekend against Kansas City. Jackson also had his way with the Texans’ defense as he finished with 100 rushing yards and also two scores via the ground.

We could be in for an instant classic here and when it’s all said and done, I believe Baltimore comes out on top to make their first trip to the Super Bowl with Jackson leading the way.

While the Ravens are the clear favorites on the moneyline, BetRivers currently offers the best price for Baltimore on the moneyline at -195 (Bet $195 to win $100) as of Thursday night.

Prediction: Ravens 24, Chiefs 20

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Chiefs vs. Ravens odds, picks, predictions for AFC championship