Ravens blasted the 49ers, but oddsmakers still have San Francisco as Super Bowl favorite
You watched the Baltimore Ravens demolish the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night. The Ravens were on the road and led by 21 points late in a 33-19 blowout win. It was hard to argue after the game that the 11-4 49ers are better than the 12-3 Ravens.
Oddsmakers are being stubborn.
There was a big change in the MVP odds, shifting Lamar Jackson to the pole position and Brock Purdy far out of the mix. But there was not a substantial change in the Super Bowl odds.
The 49ers, who were just blown out by the Ravens at home, still lead Baltimore in the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM. That might seem a bit strange.
49ers still lead Super Bowl odds
The Super Bowl odds with two regular-season weeks to go tell us a few things. First, oddsmakers aren't convinced the Ravens are the Super Bowl favorites. They aren't completely out on the struggling Kansas City Chiefs either. And it's fairly wide open as we enter 2024.
Here are the current odds:
49ers +240
Ravens +400
Chiefs +800
Dolphins +800
Eagles +800
Cowboys +1000
Bills +1100
Not only are the 49ers the favorites, it's not particularly close.
The oddsmakers' job isn't to predict what will happen. It's to set lines that get somewhat equal action among teams, and don't expose the sportsbooks to a big loss. Part of the reason the sportsbooks don't want to move the 49ers behind the Ravens is they anticipate too many bettors would take the 49ers at longer odds.
Basically, the betting market still believes in the 49ers, regardless of what we all saw on Monday night.
Why aren't Ravens favored?
Before Monday night, the 49ers looked like the best team in the NFL. They had blowout wins over some of the best teams in the NFL, including the Cowboys and Eagles. The offense has explosive stars and the defense is very good too.
The lesson to take from the current Super Bowl odds is to not overreact to one bad game, or perhaps it's that the Ravens are the good value on the board. Either way, one huge result did not change oddsmakers' minds on the 49ers that much. There's something to be said about that.
There's also more to Super Bowl odds than simply deciding which team is better. The 49ers have a much stronger chance to clinch the NFC's top seed than the Ravens, who could lose that spot if they drop a game to the Dolphins on Sunday. The group of AFC contenders behind the Ravens is probably stronger than the NFC contenders behind the 49ers, which theoretically gives San Francisco an easier path to making the Super Bowl. All of that factors into the Super Bowl odds.
But it's still pretty surprising to see the 49ers atop the leaderboard after they were dominated at home by a Ravens team that has a better record. It's a bit of a gamble by the oddsmakers themselves.
