How Israel will retaliate: The options and their level of risk
Israel’s war cabinet has been locked in discussions inside the Kirya, or “The Campus”, over how to respond to the Iran attacks.
Talks are thought to be focused on the timing and scale of Israel’s response. An immediate reaction was reportedly called off after pressure from Joe Biden and there is also the question of whether Israel will be forced to act alone, as the US – its staunchest ally – has said it will not support a direct attack on Iran.
Analysts believe Israel will be weighing up whether to respond according to Iran’s intent, or the impact of its attack – which largely failed to hit any targets.
“The question now is: What is the right policy? What would deter? What would cause less harm to those who are uninvolved? Who would support [Israel] and who would be part of the action?” Micky Aharonson, former senior director for foreign policy on Israel’s national security council, said.
Here is a look at Israel’s possible options and their level of risk.
Targets inside Iran
Israel and Iran have been engaged in a shadow war for decades. Until now, both have always chosen to strike at each other via indirect means, with Israel attacking Iranian assets abroad, and Iran supporting regional militant proxy groups to threaten Israeli targets.
But now, experts say the floodgates have opened after Iran launched a direct attack from its soil against Israel.
“The magnitude [of the Iranian attack] was the surprise; not the fact that they did it,” said Yaakov Amidror, a fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America in Washington.
The “Iranians have opened a new opportunity for us regarding the legitimacy of Israel to destroy targets in Iran, including the nuclear program,” he said. “This is one option: Iran, directly, kinetically, without any hesitation.”
Within Iran itself, Israel has no shortage of potential targets to hit, particularly ones in the military realm linked to its feared Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Israel is believed to have disrupted Iran’s nuclear ambitions before by going after various facilities and scientists, and likely has strong intelligence on Tehran’s nuclear weapons program.
Iran is believed to have increased its total stockpile of highly enriched nuclear fuel for around three atomic weapons.
One option is “targeting the IRGC’s military intelligence assets inside Iran,” said Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC research at United Against Nuclear Iran. “The nuclear facilities, which are controlled by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are a very, very important dimension to this.”
Not to mention that “a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic of Iran is and would be an existential threat to Israel, the US and its regional allies.”
An attack on nuclear sites could come from a bombing raid by advanced F-35 fighter jets or something more clandestine on the ground.
Either way it would likely be viewed as a significant escalation.
Israel could also attack and assassinate senior IRGC officers, something that it has done before.
Ms Aharonson highlighted that any military officer in charge of orchestrating attacks or directing various proxy groups against Israel could be on a kill list.
“Every one of them, of those people – it’s on the table,” she said. “They should, as was demonstrated in other areas, be more worried about their wellbeing.”
Killing senior commanders could have some psychological warfare impact as well.
It could be carried out with precision weapons fired from drones – a form of assassination Israel has carried out before.
Targeting weapons and drone factories and supply lines could be another way for Israel to snarl Iranian capabilities going forward, especially if it halts or stalls the production of its Shahed drones.
The drones have also been used by Russia in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and an attack could delay or slow Iran’s military abilities.
At this point, some experts believe that Israel can make a clear-eyed assessment of Iranian capabilities given the weekend attack.
“It was good for Israel, because it is now well understood that we can deal with the capabilities of Iran,” said Mr Amidror. “They used all their capabilities; they don’t have any card that they didn’t use.”
Knocking out a weapons production facility would likely require a major bombing raid using fighter jets or long-range cruise missiles.
Israel could also target Iranian assets, such as oil refineries, as oil revenues support Iran’s economy despite numerous international sanctions.
Again, this could come through jets, long-range missiles or sabotage on the ground.
While this is an option, it may not be the most strategic, however, as it is not the most direct way for Israel to kneecap Iran’s military abilities.
It would also likely trigger volatility in global petrol prices, which would risk upsetting Western allies despite much of Iranian fuel being under sanction.
Targets outside Iran
Another option Israel could take would be to hit either Iranian targets abroad, or to go after various proxy groups backed by Iran, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen.
The current scenario could present “an opportunity to hit more forcefully more Iranian proxies,” said Richard Pater, director of the Britain-Israel Communications and Research Centre.
There is likely “a bank of targets in Lebanon and Syria that Israel hasn’t hit yet, and is saving for a more official occasion”.
This could include operational command centres used by the militant groups, or directly targeting senior commanders, as Israel has been known to do before.
A suspected Israel attack on April 1 that killed senior Iranian officers in Syria, for instance, is what prompted Iran to respond so forcefully this past weekend.
But whether Israel will choose this option remains to be seen, as it would not be materially different to what it has already done, said Mr Amidror.
“We killed in the last six months almost 300 Hezbollah members,” he noted. “This is in principle something that we are doing…all the time.”
Israel could also take this opportunity to completely annihilate Hamas, the terrorist group whose attacks last October sparked war in the Gaza Strip, as Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has vowed.
This would be, in a way, a direct affront as Iran and its proxy militant groups have all said threats against Israel would stop if the latter halts its war in Gaza.
Israel has not given much indication that it will back down from seeking what it says is justice after Hamas’s brutal attacks last October.
But there remains a debate over whether Hamas can be completely eradicated, as some experts say it is an ideology and not just a mere organisation.
It would require more bloody urban conflict on the ground mixed with a bombing campaign that would likely trigger more civilian deaths. Israel is already facing intense pressure over civilian and aid group casualties in Gaza, and a further escalation risks isolation from key allies.
