MEMPHIS, Tenn. – Go back to the 2017 Liberty Bowl. It was Matt Campbell’s second season as Iowa State’s coach. The Cyclones’ first bowl game since 2012 – and the result? Beating the hometown Memphis Tigers . . .

By a point.

That should have opened our minds that Campbell’s insistence that his program must “win in the margins,” wasn’t just coachspeak about needing near-perfect play to win.

It has been the reality.

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Since that 21-20 victory in which Kyle Kempt completed 24 of 38 passes for 314 yards and two touchdowns, Campbell’s program has a 7-12 record in games decided by three or fewer points. It’s 1-4 over the past two seasons in games that close.

Iowa State is favored to beat Memphis by 10 ½ points during Friday’s ESPN game that starts at 2:30 p.m. (CT), but do you buy it?

I’m more prone to buy the Cyclones winning by a Chase Contreraz field goal, not by 10+ points. Yeah, I’m leaning toward another of those field-goal bowls that we know sometimes can be a bit harrowing.

Remember the 2001 Independence Bowl? When the refs claimed freshman Tony Yelk missed what would have been a walkoff win for Dan McCarney’s team, not a 14-13 loss against Alabama.

There were 51 seconds left when Yelk lined up for a 47-yard attempt – the game’s outcome on the line. He kicked it so high, that it soared above the right upright.

Yelk thought it was good, to the extent that he happily thrust both arms into the air. The ref standing under the post ruled it wasn’t good – and that’s how it stood.

"I thought it was good," Yelk said after the game. "It was tough to tell. I wish we could have it back. We could probably talk about it as long as you want. That's the controversial part.”

I caught up with Contreraz shortly after the Cyclones arrived at the Peabody Hotel on Christmas Eve. He, too, knows what can happen when balls are kicked above uprights – it happened just this year when his 37-yarder late in the three-point loss at Ohio.

The refs claimed sailed outside the post. TV replays showed something different, but stuff happens when games come down to a kick.

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He's made 16 of 20 attempts since that game. He’s made 12 of his last 13 – the miss being a 51-yarder against Texas.

“One of the huge pieces of success of our football team is Chase’s growth,” Campbell said Wednesday. “He’s been a difference-maker. Just getting into our program in May -- he’s brought wisdom, he’s brought process, and he’s brought such a standard for excellence, that I think he’s raised the level of excellence in our special teams room.

“I’m really proud of what he’s done. He’s left a great legacy and a profound impact on the future of our special teams room.”

My MVP pick for Iowa State’s sixth bowl under Campbell? Contreraz is certainly someone to consider.

So is Abu Sama, the true freshman running back from Southeast Polk who’s likely to get a majority of Rocco Becht’s handoffs. If he’s just half as good as he was the last time the Cyclones played – that’d add even more excitement for this position’s future.

Sama, if you recall, rushed 16 times for 276 yards and touchdowns of 71 yards, 77 yards and 60 yards in Farmagedden-turned-Snow Bowl – a 42-35 victory on Kansas State’s snowy field.

Need another MVP possibility? How about safeties Jeremiah Cooper or Beau Freyler. Take your pick.

What’s The Des Moines Register’s Iowa State text group saying and asking about the game?

Abu Sama runs wild and is named the Liberty Bowl MVP

I’d say that’s a possibility, and if it happens, it will be 2017 all over again – when Allen Lazard tied a Liberty Bowl record with 10 catches for 142 yards and one touchdown and was named the game’s MVP of a 21-20 win. Teammate Marcel Spears was named the game's Outstanding Defensive Player with 11 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and a sack. Memphis’ rush defense this season is 97^th nationally, allowing opponents 168.2 rushing yards a game.

Another big game for Sama? Stay tuned.

How many tickets have been sold?

Iowa State officials told me Tuesday that 4,000 of the school’s ticket allotment of 8,000 had been purchased. That’s not exactly indicative of how many Iowa State fans will attend the game. Many tickets, I’m sure, have been purchased directly from the Liberty Bowl. From what I’ve noticed and heard, non-College Football Playoff bowl ticket sales haven’t exactly been humming.

Iowa State has the better defense, but we will need to be great defensively to overcome home-field advantage for Memphis

The Cyclones have the better defense, as you point out. That defense needs to be very good because Memphis’ pinball machine offense averages 39.7 points a game. They’ve averaged 45.3 points over the past six games, including a crazy 59-50 victory against South Florida in which quarterback Seth Henigan completed 23 of 40 passes for 349 yards and four touchdowns. The teams combined for 1,163 yards, and by the way, South Florida is coached by former Cyclones assistant under Campbell, Alex Golesh.

Will miss T.J. Tampa, but at this point he absolutely should do what's best for the future of himself and his family.

That’s correct. Mock NFL drafts, if they’re to be believed, say he could be at least a second-round selection. In this age where college football is as violent as it’s ever been, it’s not worth the injury risk before he’s even collected his first professional check. He’s talking about a lot of potential money that could be at risk. Iowa State has been preparing for this eventuality since the regular season ended. Floridian Jontez Williams, a redshirt freshman, is expected to start. I’m also expecting Darien Porter and Blake Thompson to roll in and out at the position.

What’s in Nate Scheelhaase’s playbook?

I’m privy to some stuff about the team, but not that. How about this: Sama for six yards on the first play. Sama for six around an end on the second play. Becht short completion to tight end Ben Brahmer on the third play, handoff to Sama for little gain on the next – and deep(ish) pass to Jayden Higgins on Play No. 5. Something like that.

The forecast calls for some rain, but no snow (unfortunately for ISU, right?). The surface is artificial. Footing should be OK.

Does Memphis have bowl-game opt outs?

Oh yeah. Right guard Davian Carter and left tackle Makylan Pounders have entered the portal, and that’s significant. Carter was a third-team American Athletic Conference selection and a 22-game career starter. Pounders had 12 career starts. Backup quarterback Tevin Carter also is transferring. T.J. Tampa is the most significant of Iowa State’s opt-outs. Of 13 Cyclones in the portal, the best-known of those that played this season are running backs Eli Sanders and Cartevious Norton.

Randy Peterson’s pick for Friday’s Iowa State-Memphis Liberty Bowl game

Iowa State (7-5) at Memphis (9-3)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m. (CT), ESPN, Iowa State by 10 ½

Where Iowa State has an edge: Let’s start with this comment Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield told reporters:

"You watch the last game that they played in the snow vs. Kansas State, and you're sitting there saying, '(Sama) may very well be the best running back in college football. If not, he's certainly the best young running back in college football.'"

The true freshman will be running against the nation’s No. 97 rushing defense, against whom opponents average 168.2 rushing yards a game.

Where Memphis has an edge: Iowa State faces the seventh-highest-scoring team in college football. The Tigers average 39.7 points, so defense is one area where the Cyclones must play well. Another is against quarterback Seth Henigan. Most of his statistics rank among the nation’s best – particularly his 293.3 passing yards a game, which have come on completing 294 of 442 passes. He’s thrown 28 touchdowns against just nine interceptions.

“He has the ability to make throws,” Iowa State defensive coordinator Jon Heacock said. “You see him on videotape and on TV getting them into plays. They’re obviously putting a lot on his plate, and he’s obviously handling it very well.”

Prediction: This is classic strength vs. strength – Iowa State’s rock-solid defense trying to slow high-scoring Memphis.

“You turn on the film, and it’s point after point after point, and play after play after play,” Heacock said. “It’s the running backs, the wideouts and the quarterback. It’ll be a great challenge for our guys, and our guys know it.”

Defense may not win games all the time, but that side of the ball certainly can keep the score close. IOWA STATE 34, MEMPHIS 31

Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson is in his 51st year writing sports for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, on X @RandyPete, and at DesMoinesRegister.com/CyclonesTexts

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State football likely in for tight Liberty Bowl game with Memphis