Is Raheem Mostert the real fantasy football MVP of 2023?

To put into proper perspective how borderline unbelievable what Raheem Mostert is doing this season is, let’s go back to more innocent times. You remember, back in June and July, when fantasy football life was all mock drafts, vacated targets and projections for players to finish 17 games completely healthy.

And there was so much talk and speculation about the Miami Dolphins’ backfield.

Fantasy analysts and managers, as well as many NFL media talking heads, had Miami as the perfect landing spot for Dalvin Cook. He’s from South Florida, and the Dolphins surely were not going to trust their backfield to a rookie (De’Von Achane) similar in size to Bryce Young, and two aging, undrafted free-agent 49ers castoffs (Jeff Wilson Jr. and Mostert).

Heck, with Mostert’s checkered injury history, many people asked the question of how long he’d last on the field.

Fantasy managers did not believe in this backfield, no matter how many days passed on the march to the start of the 2023 season. Even when Cook signed with the Jets and Ezekiel Elliott inked a deal with the Patriots in the middle of August — before fantasy football draft season hit its busiest time — there was little to no movement on the average draft position (ADP) for Miami running backs as the number of ballcarriers thinned after Wilson was placed on IR to start the season.

Mostert went as the RB40 with an ADP of 115.2 in the 10th round of drafts; Achane was RB54 at 125.2.

Truth be told, there was little reason to think that Mostert was more than a reserve placeholder after the starting running back slots were filled in fantasy drafts. He was ancient in running back years, going into his age-31 season with just one season featuring more than eight starts and over 137 carries to his name in his career. While 2022 was his most healthy and productive season — 16 games, 891 rushing yards and three touchdowns — this was still someone who had not made a distinctive mark with five NFL teams, including getting cut by Miami in 2015.

But like amigo Matt Harmon said on a recent episode of the Yahoo Fantasy Football Show, “Don’t count out the old guys.”

Yup, what Mostert has done thus far in 2023 hardly has any precedent, and has him at the top of Yahoo’s Fantasy MVP list. Yes, he’s even ahead of Christian McCaffrey, who's also posting an otherworldly season.

Yes, considering how low he was picked, Mostert really is as valuable as any fantasy pick that has outshot its coverage. Brock Purdy? He went as the QB21 in the 11th round and is helping teams win with a blazing-hot close. Puka Nacua? This one is close, as Nacua was primarily a FAB pickup, though 1,163 receiving yards has him firmly at WR10 on the season. Fantasy managers who acted quickly on Nacua have been rewarded all season, but the nod here goes to Mostert because of how many premier running backs have fallen to injuries. Mostert has stepped into that void quite well as the RB2 through Week 15.

Mostert is not only having a great individual season by NFL standards, but he’s putting up one of the most out-of-nowhere fabulous seasons in recent memory. The running back position being such a young man’s game, Mostert is currently leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns at 18, which is five ahead of McCaffrey. Someone get him an "OLD GUYS RULE" T-shirt.

If he holds on to the rushing touchdown lead throughout the entire season, Mostert will be the oldest player to lead the league in that category since 32-year-old DeAngelo Williams tied age-30 Adrian Peterson and a couple of 20-something young bucks (Jeremy Hill and Devonta Freeman) atop the NFL with 11 TDs in 2015. Before that, it had been since 1993 that Marcus Allen — age 33 — was tops in scoring runs past that magic age.

There's a stark contrast between Mostert and these players. Williams had some starter’s pedigree from his younger Carolina years, while Allen’s bust is in Canton and Peterson is going to join the gold-jacket brigade not long after he’s eligible. All were justifiable for getting additional opportunities well past their best-by dates. Mostert was hardly more than a backend-of-the-roster reserve player before having a great playoff run for the 49ers after the 2019 season that culminated in him exploding for 29 carries, 220 yards and four touchdowns in a 37-20 blowout of the Packers in the NFC Championship.

The spotlight didn’t last long for him, though, as injury cut short his next season after eight games.

How absolutely loco is it that Mostert is having this kind of season? My colleague and occasional debate partner Scott Pianowski had a little fun on Twitter/X to put Mostert’s nutso year into context and bring back memories of other players who were one-hit-wonders. Cue up some Dexy’s Midnight Runners and Nena (for those who remember).

Peyton Hillis, Braylon Edwards, Nick Goings — all these players who were flashes and will be remembered for bringing people fantasy titles were frequent responses in Pianowski’s thread. Those players were gone almost as quickly as you could say “David Tyree,” and then it was on to the next players to pop in a league whose acronym should read Not For Long.

Is Mostert going to follow suit as a league winner? I won’t dare speculate on how long his success trajectory is beyond these next few weeks. Living in the moment here.

As far as his 2023 success thus far, Mostert already has eight weekly finishes in the top 10, and unbelievably his 20 total touchdowns are one more than he has the rest of his NFL career combined. That note really is boggling the mind the most and proves how rare what he's doing is. In a league that replaces running backs faster than paper towels at a public restroom, Mostert is that guy who keeps showing up. Eventually, those people are the only ones standing.

Mostert has two more shots to solidify his 2023 fantasy MVP status, and like his career thus far, it won’t be easy. The Cowboys come to Miami Sunday afternoon still licking their wounds from a 31-10 shellacking at the hands of the Bills. James Cook trampled them for 221 total yards and a pair of spikes on the way to RB2 status last week, after the Cowboys had been a formidable defense against running backs. In championship week, the Dolphins travel to Baltimore for the only game of their last five outside of South Florida. The Ravens are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season, though Kyren Williams and Jerome Ford have both gone over 100 yards against them since Week 10. That may be a tough matchup, but can any fantasy manager bet against Mostert?

Age, injury, being buried on a roster — Raheem Mostert has survived it all. Managers who selected him late in drafts can attest: he's 2023's fantasy MVP.