How Quinshon Judkins transfer will test Lane Kiffin's NFL model for Ole Miss football roster

OXFORD — Lane Kiffin built Ole Miss football to operate like an NFL organization.

Kiffin abides by a "pro mindset" mantra when it comes to his relationship with players. He builds his roster every offseason using the transfer portal ‑ or, as he calls it, free agency. He and his staff have developed a ratings system that Ole Miss uses to assign monetary value to players as it relates to NIL.

And, now, Kiffin's Rebels have followed a long list of NFL organizations, comfortable watching their big-name running back walk away.

Quinshon Judkins, arguably the most gifted player on the Ole Miss roster, announced his intent to enter the transfer portal on Thursday.

The brainiacs in NFL front offices have long since concluded that bleeding running back talent is OK. Of the 16 teams to appear in the last eight Super Bowls, just two had players who appeared in the top 5 of the NFL's rushing yards leaderboard that season.

The position's devaluation has made it difficult for even uber-talented running backs like Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs to get paid. Barkley's offseason contract standoff led to him being franchise-tagged by the Giants before the season. Likewise, Jacobs is on a one-year deal with the Raiders for slightly over the value of the franchise tag. The two teams have combined for a 12-20 record this year.

Judkins, who just concluded his sophomore season, has 2,725 career rushing yards in 26 games, finding the end zone 31 times on the ground. No running back in the SEC gained a larger percentage of his yards after contact than Judkins (75.7%) during the 2023 regular season.

One major discrepancy keeps running backs from tumbling down the ladder of importance in the college game. Their devalued place in the professional ranks comes from the belief among front offices that running backs aren't viable long-term assets ‒ that they're prone to injury and enjoy short primes. Longevity isn't a factor with Judkins, who has only one more season of college football in front of him barring a major surprise.

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So the question becomes: Despite that caveat, can Kiffin's Ole Miss football program sustain the loss of an elite running back, just like the NFL organizations he modeled the Rebels after?

The Rebels have not been shy about their 2024 target: A run within the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is the stated goal.

This year's four-team playoff field did not feature elite running back production. Washington's Dillion Johnson was the most productive back of the group this season, with 1,162 rushing yards to rank 24th nationally. The other three lead backs all placed between 28th and 58th.

The previous 16 teams to qualify for the College Football Playoff featured 11 running backs who were top-25 in rushing production. Their rushing totals are inflated by the extra games CFP teams play, but the name recognition test verifies their credentials: James Cook, Brian Robinson, Jerome Ford, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne and Kyren Williams have all started NFL games this season from within that group of teams.

Barring a surprising change of heart, the Rebels won't have Judkins, expected to be a top NFL prospect, in their backfield in 2024. But that doesn't mean they won't produce on the ground with his replacement. Kiffin's rushing offenses finished atop their respective conference leaderboard four times from 2014-22. On their way to their first 11-win season in 2023, the Rebels ranked fifth in the SEC in rushing ‒ the second-lowest finish for a Kiffin offense since 2014.

The conclusion? Elite running back play is not required to get where the Rebels want to go next season. But it is often a building block. If Ole Miss can't find elite running back impact, its foundation will have to be stronger to compensate.

David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.

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This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Ole Miss football: Quinshon Judkins transfer a test for Lane Kiffin