Punxsutawney Phil predicts an early spring. Here's what Texans need to know
This morning people throughout the U.S. and Canada looked to the same weather forecaster for answers. And no, he wasn't analyzing radar and pointing to maps.
Punxsutawney Phil was looking for his shadow, but could not find it — which means we're due for an early spring.
But exactly how much credit should Texans give to Phil? Well... It's complicated.
Who is Punxsutawney Phil?
Punxsutawney Phil is a groundhog who technically lives in Young Township near Punxsutawney, PA: A town of less than 6,000 that is known for its annual Groundhog Day celebration.
According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club's lore, Phil has been predicting the weather since 1886. As legend has it, the groundhog sips from the "elixir of life" each summer to maintain his immortality.
Groundhog Day meaning
Groundhog Day's origins lie in an ancient European celebration of Candlemas, a point midway between the winter solstice and the spring equinox — the exact midpoint of astronomical winter.
Groundhog Day is always Feb. 2, with its first appearance in an 1886 newspaper. It's been a tradition to call the mini-weather forecaster Punxsutawney Phil at 7:28 a.m. EST from a stump to find out if winter is almost finished. According to legend, winter will last six more weeks if Phil sees his shadow. There will be an early spring if he doesn't notice his shadow.
How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
Sadly, his predictions tend to be a little off.
According to a report released in 2023 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Centers for Environmental Information, "Even though he’s been forecasting since 1887, Phil’s track record for the entire country isn’t perfect. To determine just how accurate he is, we’ve compared U.S. national temperatures with Phil’s forecasts. On average, Phil has gotten it right 40% of the time over the past 10 years."
Will Texas see early spring or winter storms?
The past three winters have been especially brutal in Central Texas. Winter storms have posed a danger to those unfamiliar with the freezing temperatures, and widespread power outages add even more risk.
Despite record-high temperatures in December, January began with plunging temperatures, according to NOAA. The last week saw temperatures smooth out to near-average numbers.
Don't let these warm days deceive you: The NOAA expects the southern part of the country to experience above-average participation. Much of the past snow in North Texas has come in February, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. The Feb. 24 full moon has been named "the snow moon," but it is uncertain if the lunar events will actually rise over snow-covered grounds.
Texans do Groundhog Day differently
If Punxsutawney is a less-than-reliable source for predicting Texas winters, who — or what — might we look to instead?
Here are four other animals that hint at weather patterns in Texas:
Bee Cave Bob: This armadillo is the focal point of Armadillo Day and our best suggestion to replace Punxsutawney Phil because, well, he already does the same thing. Armadillo Day started in 2010 as Texas' answer to Groundhog Day.
Albino squirrels: The University of Texas has a campus legend that if students see an albino squirrel on the day of a test, they'll have good luck. Maybe seeing an albino squirrel on Feb. 2 will signify warm weather!
Grackles: It'd be tough to make a trip in Texas without seeing some grackle, especially on a trip to H-E-B. Look down while they're in the air and see if you can see their shadows Feb. 2.
Venomous snakes: Texas is home to four groups of venomous snakes. They mostly come out at night, so it would be tough to see their shadows, but we don't recommend doing that anyway on account of, you know, the venom.
— USA TODAY reporters Janet Loehrke and Doyle Rice contributed to this report.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Groundhog Day 2024: Is it an early spring or winter storm for Texas?
