Punxsutawney Phil predicted early spring, but will he be right? Here are Boise’s chances

America’s most famous — or maybe infamous — groundhog popped his head out Friday, keeping the onlooking members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club still with bated breath. Whatever happened next with the revered rodent would swing the direction of the weather for the next six weeks.

Or so the legend goes.

Each year on Feb. 2, Punxsutawney Phil is transported to his spiritual home at Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania and placed in his burrow. If Phil leaves his burrow and sees his shadow, we’re in for six more weeks of winter; if he doesn’t, warm weather and spring birds are just around the corner.

Good news for spring lovers, bad news for those who love the cold: Phil didn’t see his shadow.

Does that mean much? Not if you pay attention to the weather and place faith in the scientists studying it. Their studies show that the groundhog has not been right even half the time.

This is the first year that Phil has predicted an early spring since 2020 — in fact, he’s predicted a long winter 106 times out of the 127 times he’s been called upon.

But will Phil be right this year? And what about his past predictions? Let’s take a look.

Will spring come early to Boise this year?

According to the Climate Prediction Center, Phil might be onto something — much of the United States will experience above-normal temperatures over the next month, with most of the south and central plains also expecting above-average precipitation.

Boise is forecast on the cusp of around average to a 33-40% chance of below-average precipitation and a 40-50% chance of above-average temperatures over the next month.

National Weather Service meteorologist Sophia Adams told the Idaho Statesman that Boise could see rain later this week as moisture from a strong atmospheric river works inland. This weekend, over 4 inches of rain fell from the same weather system in parts of California.

“But it looks like by the end of next week, we’re going to see pretty good agreement among our longer-term models that an upper-level ridge will build into the region,” Adams said. “So by Valentine’s Day, into late next week, it’s looking like we’ll have warmer and slightly drier weather for the next week.”

The historical average high for Boise in February is 46 degrees and the low is 29 — resulting in an average overall temperature of 37.5. So, if models persist, expect slightly higher temperatures than that.

Adams also expects El Niño conditions to last into the spring, which typically means warmer and drier conditions for the Pacific Northwest.

“El Niño will last in the early spring,” Adams said. “There is a hint at some of the longer-range sea surface temperature models that there is a very slight chance for La Niña to move in or to take over by the beginning of winter this year.”