Providence Journal high school boys hockey playoff primer and predictions

The Rhode Island Interscholastic League boys hockey playoffs have arrived.

Over the next few weeks 10 teams from both Division I and Division II will bid for championship hardware at Providence College’s Schneider Arena on Sunday, March 17. The girls hockey championship is also that day, setting up a championship Sunday tripleheader.

But for now, I’ll be trying my hand at some fortune telling with the boys tournament. Predictions and explanations sit below. My formula? Rely on the games I saw this season and stats made available by Rhode Island High School Hockey.

Enjoy!

Division I scenarios

Warning: I will always lean toward teams with great goalie play during the playoffs.

Having someone between the pipes that’ll give you a chance every night just changes the dynamic of a game and gives a team belief. And belief … is a dangerous thing in March.

With that said, I’m going chalk in the play-in games. If No. 9 Moses Brown (3-11) pulls off the upset over No. 8 Pilgrim (6-9), so be it, but Pilgrim just knocked off the Quakers 5-1 in mid-February. In the other play-in, Mount St. Charles Academy avoids dropping the trap game against one-win East Greenwich.

Related: Eric Rueb makes his annual boys hoops division tourney picks

For quarterfinals, I won’t tip my hand here and instead will give synopsis of matches or teams. You can read below for the full bracket.

No. 5 Barrington vs. No. 4 Burrillville is the game to watch. I saw these two play earlier in the year and it was all Barrington, until it wasn’t. Burrillville stunned the Eagles with three goals in the closing minutes of regulation for a 4-2 final. The Broncos have Michael Fiyod and he’ll give them a chance again with a 92% save percentage and a 2.01-goals against average over 16 games. Barrington only challenged him with 18 shots — granted they were legitimate scoring chances, but they will have to get more on net in the quarters.

La Salle and Smithfield is the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup. The Rams are on a heater since losing to Hendricken in the beginning of the month, allowing just seven goals and shutting out top-seeded Prout, 2-0. La Salle ended the regular season with a 5-2 triumph against Smithfield. Senior forward Seamus Murphy leads La Salle with 22 points (11G, 11A) this season and defenseman, Andrew Bradley is right behind with 21 tallies.

Bill Koch covered the final RIIL Mount St. Charles regular-season boys hockey game at home. The Mounties lost 10-0 to Hendricken signaling the end of an era before the program heads to the prep ranks. Mount St. Charles, if chalk rules the opening games, will have one more chance at the Hawks. Hendricken has four scorers with double-digit goals, with freshman Nicholas Stevens pacing the group at 20. Standout forward, Griffin Crain has a whopping 38 points for the Hawks, who have split time in net between Colin Murray (nine wins) and Avery Picchione (six wins).

No. 1 Prout hosts the winner of Pilgrim/Moses Brown and I have the Crusaders winning easily. Prout’s Angelo Evangelista made 44 saves in a win against Hendricken earlier this year and the junior has a 96% save percentage with a 10-1 record. Aidan Forcier is the Crusaders’ leading scorer with 33 points (18 goals). Since the loss to La Salle, Prout is outscoring opponents 21-2 over five games.

Now on to the picks …

Division I boys hockey predictions

Play-ins

No. 8 Pilgrim over No. 9 Moses Brown

No. 7 Mount St. Charles over No. 10 East Greenwich

Quarterfinals

Game 1: No. 1 Prout over Pilgrim

Game 2: No. 4 Burrillville over No. 5 Barrington

Game 3: No. 3 La Salle over No. 6 Smithfield

Game 4: No. 2 Hendricken over Mount St. Charles

Semifinals

At Schneider Arena

Game 5: Prout over Burrillville

Game 6: Hendricken over La Salle

Championship

At Schneider Arena

Game 7: Hendricken 1, Prout 0: Hawks push one across late in the third period for their third straight title and 10th overall.

Division II scenarios

It might be No. 1 Ponaganset’s (15-1) tournament to lose.

The Chieftains dropped a 3-0 decision against RMT (Rogers-Middletown-Tiverton) in January and nearly escaped Portsmouth in back-to-back games. But other than those two, they’ve been perfect. They have a plus-50 goals differential, and their scoring is so well-rounded (nine players with double-digit points) it makes playing defense challenging. Junior Albert Boisvert has surrendered just 23 goals across 11 games.

In the play-ins, I am taking No. 9 Lincoln over eighth-seeded CSW (Cranston-Scituate-Woonsocket) and South Kingstown to top Mount Hope.

No. 2 Nariho boasts the state’s leading scorer in Ethan Travis (33 goals, 19 assists). The sophomore tops second-place for the state lead by 13 points and has Nariho at 10-5-1. Preston Abbott, another sophomore, is also eighth in the state with 32 points. Nariho went 3-1 to end the year with a 6-3 loss at Ponaganset.

The Blackstone Valley schools (St. Raphael, PCD, Johnston, North Providence, North Smithfield) are your third seed. They lost the last three games of the season and host RMT in the first round.

RMT boasts one of the division’s top goalies in Max Braun. The senior has played in 16 games with a 94% save percentage. After that, Portsmouth, West Warwick and SK are all in the middle of the division looking to get hot at the right time.

Division II boys hockey predictions

Play-ins

No. 9 Lincoln over No. 8 CSW

No. 7 South Kingstown over No. 10 Mount Hope

Quarterfinals

Game 1: No. 1 Ponaganset over Lincoln

Game 2: No. 5 Portsmouth over No. 4 West Warwick

Game 3: No. 6 RMT over No. 3 Blackstone Valley

Game 4: No. 2 Nariho over South Kingstown

Semifinals

At Schneider Arena

Game 5: Ponaganset over Portsmouth

Game 6: Nariho over RMT

Championship

At Schneider Arena

Game 7: Ponaganset 4, Nariho 2: Chieftains return to the top for the first time since winning the D-III title in 2016.

jrousseau@providencejournal.com

On X: @ByJacobRousseau

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Boys hockey playoff primer and predictions