Predictions, keys to victory, betting line for Boise State’s conference game at Nevada

Boise State’s series with BYU has produced the most heated rivalry games in the past decade, but the Broncos have much more history with Nevada.

The Broncos have played the Wolf Pack 44 times, which is more than any opponent in Boise State history. The rivalry dates back to 1971, and the Broncos are 30-14 in the series.

The Mountain West foes have played some exciting, memorable games.

In 2007, the Broncos faced a Nevada team led by former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick. It took four overtime periods to decide a winner, and Boise State won 69-67 after a failed two-point conversion by the Wolf Pack.

The game went to overtime again in 2010. This time, Kaepernick threw a touchdown pass to tie the score with 13 seconds left, and the Wolf Pack kicked a field goal in overtime to win 34-31. That was the Broncos’ only loss that season.

Nevada looked as if it was going to upset the Broncos again in 2018. Former Boise State quarterback Brett Rypien gave the Broncos a seven-point lead with a 41-yard touchdown pass in third quarter, and the Broncos held on to win 31-27.

Nevada knocked off the Broncos 41-31 last season at Albertsons Stadium, but the Wolf Pack (2-7, 0-5 Mountain West) have struggled this year. They’ve lost seven games in a row, including one against Incarnate Word — an FCS program in San Antonio, Texas.

Boise State (6-3, 5-0 MW) is heavily favored to win Saturday’s game, but given the history between the programs, the Broncos can’t afford to look past Nevada. That may be tough to do, considering the Mountain Division title probably will be on the line next week at Wyoming, but the Broncos truly have to focus on this week.

NOTES

▪ Boise State kicker Jonah Dalmas was named one of 20 semifinalists for the Lou Groza Award on Thursday. The award goes to the best kicker in the country. Dalmas, a former walk-on, has been named Mountain West Special Teams Player of the Week three times this season, and he’s 14-of-17 on field goals, including a 51-yard kick that tied his career long.

▪ Boise State offensive lineman Cade Beresford said on Wednesday that he plans to use his COVID-19 year and return next season. The NCAA offered players that were on active rosters in 2020 an extra year of eligibility because of the impact the pandemic had on the season.

Beresford, a fifth-year senior, joined the Broncos this year after transferring from Washington State. He has started every game at right tackle. His father, Harry, is a former left tackle at Boise State.

▪ Boise State wide receiver Stefan Cobbs said last week that he also plans to return next season. Cobbs, a fifth-year senior, has caught 25 passes for 306 yards and two touchdowns this fall.

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Keys to victory

Get to the QB: Boise State pass rushers George Tarlas (4), Demitri Washington (4.5) and Ezekiel Noa (4.5) have combined for 13 sacks this season. All three were out for all or most of the Broncos’ loss to BYU last week. Tarlas suffered a season-ending hip injury against Air Force, and Washington and Noa collided on the first play of the game. Noa returned but was severely limited, and Washington didn’t return.

Without their top three pass rushers, the Broncos didn’t record a single sack against BYU. Even if Noa and Washington play this week, it’s unlikely they’ll be 100%. To make matters worse, Boise State lost another pass rusher two weeks ago when Isaiah Bagnah transferred.

Despite all that’s gone wrong, the Broncos have to find a way to get to the quarterback on Saturday. Whether it comes from creative blitz packages or putting defensive linemen in position to win one-on-one matchups, Boise State has to pressure Nevada’s QBs.

Boise State is in a three-way tie for No. 4 in the Mountain West with 21 sacks. Racking up a few more over the next few weeks will make hosting the conference championship game much more likely. Keep an eye on redshirt sophomore Gabe Hunter on Saturday. He and junior college transfer Deven Wright are next in line at the edge position.

Run the ball: Boise State is 10-0 when the Broncos rush for at least 140 yards since Avalos took over last year, including four wins this season. The Broncos have a quarterback that can run like a gazelle, a pair of barrel-chested running backs who are tough to bring down and a dangerous third-down back waiting in the wings. Boise State needs to lean on that backfield.

Green has shown impressive growth as a passer, but Boise State’s offense is clicking best when he’s getting on the perimeter and creating with his legs. That opens things up for George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, and Utah State transfer Elelyon Noa has been explosive and elusive when he’s played.

Nevada is giving up 164 rushing yards a game this season, which ranks No. 9 in the Mountain West. The Broncos have a chance to exploit the Wolf Pack’s weakness in a big way.

Don’t let up: Boise State is favored to beat Nevada by more than 20 points and the Broncos should run away with Saturday’s game, but this isn’t the game to pull the starters in the second half.

Boise State lost to BYU in a gut-wrenching way last week. Giving up a game-winning touchdown with less than two minutes to play and not being able to answer with a scoring drive of their own could haunt the Broncos. It was the type of loss that’s capable of sapping momentum.

The Broncos have to find a way to leave it in the past and focus on winning a Mountain West title. The best way to do that is to exorcise those demons with a big-time performance. Boise State’s coaches and players need to be aggressive from the get-go and stay aggressive.

Key matchups

Boise State LB DJ Schramm vs. Nevada RB Toa Taua: Schramm, a first-year starter at weakside linebacker, leads the Broncos with 67 tackles. He admitted this week that he’s playing through some nagging injuries, like most linebackers this time of year, but Schramm has been filling rushing lanes and attacking the ball as well as any LB in the Mountain West. He’ll really have to be at his best if Noa doesn’t play much.

Boise State’s linebackers will be going up against one of the conference’s most physical running backs: fifth-year senior Toa Taua. The 5-foot-9, 218-pounder leads the Wolf Pack with 571 rushing yards and is tied for No. 2 in the Mountain West with 10 rushing touchdowns.

Boise State QB Taylen Green vs. Nevada S Bentlee Sanders: Teams have been throwing a lot of different defensive looks at Green in an effort to confuse the young quarterback. Defenses are also doing their best to keep him in the pocket. This week will be no different, and the 6-foot-6 redshirt freshman is going to face one of the most productive safeties in the Mountain West.

Sanders, a fifth-year senior, leads the conference with five interceptions — one of which he returned for a touchdown. He also leads Nevada with 61 tackles and three forced fumbles.

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Predictions

Boise State has lost just 16 games against teams in the Mountain West since joining the conference in 2011. Twelve of the Broncos’ 30 wins in their all-time series against Nevada have come on the road.

Boise State is a 20.5-point favorite on Saturday, according to Las Vegas, and the over/under is 47.5 points.

The Broncos are 14-6 in their past 20 regular-season games as a favorite on the road, and they’re 8-10-2 against the spread. Nevada is 8-12 in its past 20 regular-season games as an underdog at home, and the Wolf Pack is 11-9 ATS.

My pick (6-3 straight up, 6-3 ATS): Nevada is sorely overmatched to begin with, and is going to face a team intent on getting a bad taste out of its mouth. Losing what was its final rivalry game for the foreseeable future against BYU was a tough pill to swallow.

The Broncos have demons to exorcise, and they’re going to do it against a Nevada defense that is giving up 29.1 points a game. Boise State’s defense will force a couple of turnovers, the offense will continue its evolution and Green will make a few more defenders look silly. Final score: Boise State 42, Nevada 10

BOISE STATE AT NEVADA

When: 8:30 p.m. Saturday

Where: Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nevada (30,000)

TV: CBS Sports Network (Rich Waltz, Aaron Taylor, Brandon Baylor)

Radio: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)

Records: Boise State 6-3, 5-0 MW; Nevada 2-7, 0-5 MW

Series: Boise State is 30-14 in its all-time series against Nevada. The Broncos beat the Wolf Pack six straight times between 2011 and 2018, but Nevada went into Albertsons Stadium and won, 41-31, last season.

Vegas line: Boise State by 20.5

Weather: High of 44 degrees, 42% chance of rain, 6 mph wind