Predictions, keys to victory, betting line for Boise State’s home game vs. Utah State

On the surface, the Boise State football team doesn’t have much to play for Friday against Utah State (10 a.m., CBS).

The Broncos have clinched their spot at home in the Mountain West championship game for the first time since 2019. They know they’re going to get another shot at Fresno State and star quarterback Jake Haener in the title game, and they know they’re going to a bowl game no matter what happens.

There are a couple of things motivating the Broncos to get another win, though.

For one thing, it would be just the second time in program history that Boise State has gone 8-0 in Mountain West play. The last time was 2019, when the Broncos cruised past Hawaii to win their fourth Mountain West championship in the title game.

The Broncos also have a chance to improve their home record. After going 3-3 at Albertsons Stadium last year, they can finish 5-1 at home this season in the regular season with a win over the Aggies. Their lone home loss was to BYU.

Protecting The Blue means a lot to everyone in Boise State’s locker room.

“Since I showed up freshman year, defending The Blue is something we’ve trained for,” Boise State center Kekaniokoa Holomalia-Gonzalez said on Tuesday. “Everything we do, in some shape or form, is about defending The Blue, so honestly it means everything.”

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Keys to victory

Force some turnovers: The Broncos have forced at least one turnover in seven straight games, and it’s no coincidence that they’ve won six of those. Turnovers were the deciding factor in last week’s win at Wyoming. The Broncos forced three in the second half, including an interception in the end zone on Wyoming’s final play of the game. Boise State’s defense has forced 16 turnovers this year, and the Broncos need to force a couple Friday.

Utah State is susceptible to turnovers. Regular quarterback Cooper Legas has seven interceptions and the Aggies have 17 giveaways (11 INT, 6 fumbles) this season. The Broncos need to get in Legas’ face and force him to make quick decisions. They need to rip at the ball and capitalize with points when Utah State does turn it over.

Gang tackle: Utah State runs a true spread offense, meaning the Aggies are going to use just about all 53.3 yards of the width of the field. That’s going to spread out the defense, creating large rushing lanes and one-on-one matchups on the outside. The key to slowing the Aggies down is being a sure tackler, especially on first and second down, which will force them to convert on third-and-long.

The Broncos cannot afford sloppy tackling on Friday. If they miss tackles, the Aggies are going to spoil senior day. The surest way to get a ball carrier to the ground is to have some help. Boise State’s defenders need to flow to the ball and help each other.

That effort should be aided by the return of nickel Tyreque Jones, who missed the Wyoming game with an injury but was back at practice on Tuesday.

Let Holani go to work: Boise State running back George Holani needs just just 23 yards to crack 1,000 for the first time since his freshman season in 2019. Holani has posted more than 100 yards on the ground in five of the Broncos’ past six games, and he’s sitting at 977 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns on the season.

There’s going to be a temptation on the part of Boise State’s coaches to pull him out of the game, especially if the Broncos have a nice lead in the second half, but they need to resist the urge as much as they need to keep Holani healthy.

Holani is on a roll right now. His instincts and vision are serving him well, and forcing him to sit for an extended period of time could throw off his rhythm. That’s something the Broncos can’t afford because they’re going to need him at his best in the Mountain West championship game and in their bowl game.

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Key matchups

Boise State DE Cortez Hogans Jr. vs. Utah State RB Calvin Tyler Jr.: A foot injury kept Hogans on the shelf for much of the season, but he stepped in and made an impact when the Broncos needed it most. Boise State has lost edge rushers George Tarlas (injury), Demitri Washington (injury) and Isaiah Bagnah (transfer) in recent weeks. While Hogans isn’t the same pass-rushing threat as that trio, he has proved that he can get to the quarterback while also being stout against the run. He posted six tackles against Colorado State two weeks ago and finished with five against Wyoming.

Hogans and the rest of the defensive front will have their hands full with Tyler, who is one of the most explosive, versatile running backs in the Mountain West. Like Holani, he’s closing in on 1,000 rushing yards, having posted 978. Tyler finished with 125 yards and three touchdowns on the ground against San Jose State last week, and he’s also a threat in the passing game.

Boise State CB Caleb Biggers vs. Utah State WR Brian Cobbs: Cobbs joined the Aggies this year as a graduate transfer from Maryland, and he has emerged as Utah State’s No. 1 receiver. He caught 10 passes for 122 yards against San Jose State last week, and he leads the Aggies with 63 catches for 769 yards. He’s also one of three receivers on the roster with four touchdown catches this season.

Biggers, who transferred to Boise State last year after three years at Bowling Green, has emerged as the Broncos’ No. 1 cornerback. He specializes in man-to-man coverage, and he’s likely to draw Cobbs all day Friday. Whoever wins that matchup may determine which team wins the game.

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Predictions

Boise State is a 16-point favorite, according to Las Vegas, and the over/under is 52 points. The Broncos lead the all-time series against Utah State 21-5, and they’ve won six straight. Boise State is also 11-2 all-time at home against the Aggies.

The Broncos are 15-5 in their past 20 regular-season games as a favorite at home and 12-8 against the spread. Utah State is 6-14 in its past 20 regular-season games as an underdog on the road and 9-11 ATS.

My pick (8-3 straight up, 8-3 ATS): Despite how hard the coaches are working to keep it from happening, there is some danger that Boise State’s players could overlook Utah State as they prepare for the Mountain West title game. It’s understandable. Utah State is a shell of the team that won a conference title last year, and the Broncos should easily cover the 16-point spread.

That being said, Utah State isn’t going to come into Albertsons Stadium and roll over. The Aggies possibly could land a respectable bowl game with a win over the top team in the Mountain West. They have weapons on offense and they’re going to have revenge on their minds after the Broncos embarrassed them in Logan, Utah, last season. In the end, I don’t think Utah State has enough talent on defense to hang, but I think the Aggies cover the spread. Final score: Boise State 35, Utah State 24

UTAH STATE AT BOISE STATE

When: 10 a.m., Friday

Where: Albertsons Stadium

TV: CBS (Rich Waltz, Aaron Taylor, Amanda Guerra)

Radio: KBOI 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler, Pete Cavender)

Records: Boise State 8-3, 7-0 MW; Utah State 6-5, 5-2 MW

Series: Boise State is 25-1 all-time against Utah State, including six consecutive victories.

Vegas line: Boise State by 16

Weather: High of 44 degrees, 12% chance of rain, 6 mph wind