Predicting and analyzing all eight IHSA state football championship games

The IHSA football season has reached the state championships, set to be played at Hancock Stadium in Normal on the campus of Illinois State University for the first time since 1998 on Friday and Saturday.

So as we get set, here is how our experts predict it will finish at each class for the IHSA state championships. Matt Trowbridge (46-6 on the season, 8-2 in the playoffs) has predicted games from the NIC-10 and Rochelle while Jay Taft (61-13, 12-1 in the playoffs) picked games involving Big Northern and NUIC teams.

Now they will both pick them all.

Class 1A (10 a.m. Friday): Lena-Winslow (13-0) vs. Camp Point Central (13-0)

JAY TAFT: Deja vu all over again for Le-Win's Panthers; or revenge for Camp Point Central's Panthers? It's hard to imagine Central, which got shellacked 30-8 in last year's state finals by Le-Win, can turn it around that much. They will be playing a more senior-dominated roster this year, but Le-Win always does. And Le-Win's leading rusher this year — make that, the Rockford area's leading rusher this year — Gage Dunker (2,492 yards and 41 touchdowns) was the leading rusher in the title game last year with 120 yards rushing and three TDs on 22 carries. Prediction: Le-Win 42, Camp Point Central 32

MATT TROWBRIDGE: Camp Point Central returns 11 of 22 starters from the team that lost 30-8 to Le-Win in last year’s title game. But the state’s No. 2-ranked team did not play a team that finished with more than 7 wins in its first 11 games, beat 7-4 Hardin Calhoun twice by a modest average of 13 points and played a slightly smaller schedule than Le-Win, facing three schools of more than 266 students to Le-Win’s seven. Le-Win has won 32 games in a row since a 22-20 loss to Forreston. The area record is 39 in a row by Boylan from 2010-12. I say Le-win not only takes a fourth state title in a row but winds up breaking Boylan’s record next year. Prediction: Lena-Winslow 30, Camp Point Central 14.

High school football in Rockford area: Complete coverage from the 2023 season

Class 2A (1 p.m. Fri.): Wilmington (12-1) vs. Athens (11-2)

JAY TAFT: Wilmington, led by 2,000-yard rusher Kyle Farrell (2,056 yards and 29 TDs), has won by an average of 40-14 in its four playoff games. Athens had six false starts and barely survived a 28-27 quarterfinal win over Nashville before crushing Shelbyville 39-6 last week. But the Athens Warriors are a more balanced team, with two players (Camren Bigard and Cory Craig Jr.) who have rushed for over 1,600 yards. Still, I like Wilmington's power-I, power-run style in this one. Prediction: Wilmington 26, Athens 21

MATT TROWBRIDGE: Wilmington is 272-64 in 30 years under coach Jeff Reents. The first 27 of those years were in Class 3A, where Wilmington often ran into Byron, going 3-2 against the Tigers in the playoffs from 2011 to 2019, including a 46-13 semifinal whipping en route to winning its only 3A title in 2014. I’ll take any school that has historically held its own with Byron over any 2A team. Also, Wilmington, 10-1 in the playoffs since dropping down to 2A, has eliminated three consecutive undefeated teams the last three weeks, including an overtime win over Seneca — the team it lost to in its season opener — and a 42-7 whipping last week of No. 1-ranked Maroa-Forsyth. Prediction: Wilmington 35, Athens 17.

Class 3A (4 p.m. Fri.): Byron (13-0) vs. Mt. Carmel (12-1)

JAY TAFT: Byron got tested big time last week, and the Tigers, like the Panthers of Le-Win, stepped up in their first close game of the season to pull it off down the stretch. That basically showed us that Byron can not only win running away, which is how the Tigers have done it most of the time, but they can also pull out a win when the pressure's on. I predict no state scoring title for Byron (they need to score 55 to break the record), but a third state title, nonetheless. Prediction: Byron 36, Mt. Carmel 28

MATT TROWBRIDGE: Mt. Carmel QB Blayne Sisson has run for 2,081 yards and passed for 1,762 yards, with a combined 51 touchdowns. He ran for over 300 and passed for 180, completing 9 of 10 throws, in last week’s 63-48 win over Roxana. But a team that gave up 48 points has no chance to slow a Byron team that runs on every down, has punted only three times all year and is 55 points away from the state scoring record. Mt. Carmel’s only chance is if Byron fumbles — two lost fumbles last week kept Lombard Montini close. But if Byron doesn’t drop the ball, the Tigers will score every time they touch it. Prediction: Byron 56, Mt. Carmel 21.

Class 4A (7 p.m. Fri.): Burbank St. Laurence (10-3) vs. Rochester (13-0)

JAY TAFT: St. Laurence is an 11th seed and had to hang on to close wins in the quarters (24-20 over Elmhurst IC Catholic) and in the semis (31-30 over West Chicago Wheaton). For Rochester, last week's 42-14 win over Murphysboro was the closest game in the postseason, and it appears ready to get back to its dominant days, like when it won eight out of 10 state titles in 4A from 2010-2019. This should be the end of the Cinderella run for St. Laurence. Prediction: Rochester 44, St. Laurence 38

MATT TROWBRIDGE: Byron not only has a chance to win the Class 3A title but somewhat stake a claim to being the best team in the next two highest classes if Burbank St. Laurence and LaGrange Nazareth, who both lost to Byron’s semifinal foe Lombard Montini, win their 4A and 5A title games. It’s not going to happen. Rochester is the most dominant team in the state, with coach Derek Leonard about to win his ninth state title in 13 years. Matt Trowbridge’s Prediction: Rochester 42, Burbank St. Laurence 21.

Class 5A (10 a.m. Saturday): LaGrange Park Nazareth Academy (8-5) vs. Joliet Catholic Academy (10-3)

MATT TROWBRIDGE: Yes, Joliet Catholic has won a record 15 state football titles, but only two of those are in the last 15 years, and one was in 4A. Nazareth is playing in its seventh state title game in nine years and has won four state titles, in classes 5A, 6A and 7A in that time. They have two common opponents, with Joliet Catholic losing to both Chicago St. Ignatius and Wheaton St. Francis. While Joliet Catholic is 0-2 vs. those teams, Nazareth is 2-1 after avenging a regular-season loss to Wheaton St. Francis with a 38-31 semifinal win. The Roadrunners wouldn't even have made the playoffs after going 4-5 in the regular season if so many small schools hadn't left to play 8-man. Last year they were 5-4 but still won state. They are the new Terminator: Once they get in the door, they are impossible to stop. Prediction: LaGrange Nazareth 24, Jolie Catholic 21.

JAY TAFT: JCA is a very storied program, with 15 state titles and a pair of runner-up finishes. That means they are 13-2 in state championship games, which is a pretty good winning percentage (87 percent) in the big game. Nazareth Academy, which won its fourth state title two years ago, is on quick a run in the postseason after opening the season 0-4. That run ends here. Prediction: Joliet Catholic Academy 42, Nazareth Academy 20

Class 6A (1 p.m. Sat.): Cary-Grove (11-2) vs. East St. Louis (11-2)

MATT TROWBRIDGE: This is a rematch of the last two 6A state champs and one of the best state title games in recent memory. Cary-Grove edged East St. Louis 37-36 two years ago. That one point is the only thing that prevents defending champ East St. Louis from winning state in four of the last five years. Last year, East St. Louis routed Crystal Lake Prairie Ridge 57-7 in the finals. Why does that matter: Because CLPR beat out Cary-Grove to win the Fox Valley the last two years. If CLPR can't hang with East St. Louis, neither can Cary-Grove. Prediction: East St. Louis 35, Cary-Grove 21.

JAY TAFT: This is an evenly matched game, and neither team has been challenged much in the postseason. They both will on Saturday afternoon. For me, this one is "Whoever has the ball last." Prediction:Cary-Grove 31, East St. Louis 29

Class 7A (4 p.m. Sat.): Downers Grove North (11-2) vs. Chicago Mt. Carmel (12-1)

MATT TROWBRIDGE: Downers Grove North has crushed its last two teams 76-6, but Mt. Carmel just hammered Batavia 64-26 — and that was its closest playoff game yet. Any team that can run roughshod over a defending state runner-up Batavia team that led Hononegah 28-0 after only 11 offensive plays is my pick in any class. Most people would seem to agree: Mt. Carmel is ranked No. 1 in the state by The Associated Press and Downers Grove North is unranked. Prediction: Mt. Carmel 56, Downers Grove North 17.

JAY TAFT: This Mt. Carmel has a better shot at the title than the 3A version. In fact, led by a line that has a pair of 300-pounders, this team is coached by former NIU great Jordan Lynch, and it runs kind of like that Huskie team did as well. It's well-balanced, and should hold off an up-and-down Downers Grove North squad. Prediction: Mt Carmel 27, Downers Grove North 22

Class 8A (7 p.m. Sat.): Wilmette Loyola Academy (13-0) vs. Lincoln Way East (13-0)

MATT TROWBRIDGE: The overall state title was played Oct. 21. That's the day Wilmette Loyola beat Chicago Mt. Carmel 23-21 handing the Caravan their only loss. Lincoln-Way East has been dominant, but its signature win is by one point over a Batavia team that lost by 38 to a team Wilmette Loyola beat. Wilmette Loyola is playing in its eighth Class 8A title game in 12 years and is about to win its fourth title in eight years. Prediction: Wilmette Loyola 24, Lincoln-Way East 17.

JAY TAFT: The defending 8A state champs from Loyola Academy has a quarterback (Ryan Fitzgerald) who has thrown for 1,853 yards and 18 TDs with just one interception, and he's one of three rushers with over 500 yards on the season as well. Lincoln Way East has given up six points in the entire postseason, however, and has the kind of defense that can pull this one off. Prediction: Lincoln Way East 24, Loyola Academy 23

This article originally appeared on Rockford Register Star: Predicting the winners in all 8 IHSA football championship games