Powerful winds, heavy rain from Tropical Storm Nicole to start today in Midlands
Tropical Storm Nicole made landfall in Florida overnight and now is tracking toward South Carolina, where it is expected to bring severe weather effects to the Columbia area.
Powerful winds, heavy rain and flooding, as well as possible tornadoes are all threats in the Midlands, the National Weather Service said in a morning briefing.
Both the rain and wind are forecast to start Thursday and increase in intensity overnight and into Friday, according to the briefing.
While Nicole is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression — with wind speeds slower than 39 mph — when it tracks over the Upstate, stormy conditions are expected throughout the state, according to the South Carolina Emergency Management Division.
Winds are expected to affect the Midlands before the center of the storm moves over South Carolina, the National Weather Service said. Both a Wind Advisory and a Lake Wind Advisory have been issued in the Midlands, according to the National Weather Service. While the Lake Wind Advisory is set to expire at 7 p.m. Thursday, the Wind Advisory is in effect until 7 p.m. Friday, the National Weather Service said.
No other warnings, watches or advisories were issued for the Columbia area. That could change as the storm moves closer.
Winds could gust between 30 and 40 mph, although a few gusts up to 45 mph are possible in rain bands, according to the briefing. The wind will continue to be a threat through Friday, the National Weather Service said.
While those powerful gusts are possible, there is a 1-in-10 chance of experiencing sustained tropical storm force winds in the Midlands, according to the briefing.
There is also an increasing threat of tornadoes, according to the briefing.
Tornadoes are most likely to form in the eastern portion of the Midlands and closer to the South Carolina coast, the National Weather Service said.
“The time of greatest tornado risk for the state will be after dark (Thursday night), so it is crucial to be prepared and informed,” the S.C. Emergency Management Division said.
Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous, according to the National Weather Service.
Powerful winds and tornadoes could cause considerable damage to trees and branches, in addition to mobile homes, roofs and outbuildings. Unsecured, light-weight outdoor objects could blow away and vehicles would also be under siege in the case of a tornado.
Damage to trees and branches creates the possibility of downed power lines and outages.
One significant change in the morning briefing showed the Columbia area is not expected to get as much rain from Nicole as previously forecast.
Now the storm is expected to dump anywhere from 1-2 inches of rain in the Midlands, according to the briefing. Localized amounts could be higher, and there is a 90% chance of rain from Thursday night through Friday, the forecast shows.
Showers will build in intensity Thursday afternoon, with the heaviest rain expected overnight into Friday morning, according to the briefing.
Because of all of the rain in the forecast, isolated flooding is possible, but widespread flooding is not expected, the National Weather Service said. Both river flooding and flash flooding are possible through Friday, according to the briefing.
Once the storm passes through the Midlands, conditions are expected to be sunny and dry through the weekend, the forecast shows. The weather will be cooler, with high temperatures expected to reach the 50s Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, according to the forecast.
As of 7 a.m. Thursday, the storm was over central Florida and was moving northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The center of Nicole — which has tropical-storm-force winds extending 450 miles outward — is expected to move across Florida and Georgia on Thursday before reaching South Carolina, the National Hurricane Center said.
Nicole is the 14th named storm of 2022 and could become the second to hit the Columbia area since the remnants of Hurricane Ian doused the Midlands at the beginning of October.
Nicole could become just the fifth tropical storm or hurricane to affect the Midlands in November since 1850, according to the National Weather Service. The most recent was Eta in 2020, which was well offshore but still brought heavy rain and flooding to the Carolinas, the National Weather Service said.
