Which post positions in the Kentucky Derby starting gate produce the most race winners?

The post position draw for this year’s 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby took place Saturday night at Churchill Downs in Louisville a full week before the running of the race this weekend.

As such, plenty of time has been and will be devoted to analyzing the pairing of horse and starting gate for the $5 million event.

Fierceness — the 5-2 morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby — drew post position 17, which is the only starting gate to have never produced a winner in any of the previous 149 editions of the race.

But, Fierceness will actually begin the 2024 Kentucky Derby from starting gate 16 as the result of a change to the Derby field.

On Tuesday, Encino — which drew post position 9 — scratched out of the race. This not only moved Epic Ride from the also-eligible list to the Derby field, but it also means the horses that drew post positions 10-20 will move inside one starting gate for the race.

Those horses’ program numbers will remain the same.

Plenty of historical precedent exists for which post positions are the best ones to draw for the Derby, dating back to the first use of a starting gate in 1930. (Before the starting gate, horses were dispatched by the use of ropes, ribbon or wooden barriers.)

Below is a comprehensive look at the results of horses from each Kentucky Derby post position since the starting gate was adopted in 1930.

Post-position results in the Kentucky Derby (since 1930)

POST POSITION NO. 1: 8 wins, 5 seconds, 5 thirds from 94 starts.

▪ Last winner? Ferdinand (1986).

▪ Last top-three finish? Lookin At Lee (second, 2017).

▪ This year’s No. 1: Dornoch (20-1 morning line odds).

POST POSITION NO. 2: 7 wins, 5 seconds, 13 thirds from 94 starts.

▪ Last winner? Affirmed (1978).

▪ Last top-three finish? Revolutionary (third, 2013).

▪ This year’s No. 2: Sierra Leone (3-1).

POST POSITION NO. 3: 5 wins, 8 seconds, 8 thirds from 94 starts.

▪ Last winner? Real Quiet (1998).

▪ Last top-three finish? Two Phil’s (second, 2023).

▪ This year’s No. 3: Mystik Dan (20-1).

POST POSITION NO. 4: 5 wins, 6 seconds, 4 thirds from 94 starts.

▪ Last winner? Super Saver (2010).

▪ Last top-three finish? Danza (third, 2014).

▪ This year’s No. 4: Catching Freedom (8-1).

POST POSITION NO. 5: 10 wins, 8 seconds, 4 thirds from 94 starts.

▪ Last winner? Always Dreaming (2017).

▪ Last top-three finish? Audible (third, 2018).

▪ This year’s No. 5: Catalytic (30-1).

POST POSITION NO. 6: 2 wins, 8 seconds and 3 thirds from 94 starts.

▪ Last winner? Sea Hero (1993).

▪ Last top-three finish? Good Magic (second, 2018).

▪ This year’s No. 6: Just Steel (20-1).

POST POSITION NO. 7: 8 wins, 6 seconds and 6 thirds from 93 starts.

▪ Last winner? Mandaloun (2021).

▪ Last top-three finish? Mandaloun.

▪ This year’s No. 7: Honor Marie (20-1).

The horses leave the gate at the start of the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 6, 2023. The winner, Mage, drew from the eighth post position and can be seen under the No. 6 sign at this early juncture of the race.

POST POSITION NO. 8: 9 wins, 5 seconds and 5 thirds from 93 starts.

▪ Last winner? Mage (2023).

▪ Last top-three finish? Mage.

▪ This year’s No. 8: Just a Touch (10-1).

POST POSITION NO. 9: 4 wins, 6 seconds and 8 thirds from 90 starts.

▪ Last winner? Riva Ridge (1972).

▪ Last top-three finish? Hot Rod Charlie (second, 2021).

▪ This year’s No. 9: T O Password (30-1), who will be program number 10.

POST POSITION NO. 10: 9 wins, 6 seconds and 10 thirds from 87 starts.

▪ Last winner? Giacomo (2005).

▪ Last top-three finish? Zandon (third, 2022).

▪ This year’s No. 10: Forever Young (10-1), who will be program number 11.

POST POSITION NO. 11: 2 wins, 6 seconds and 4 thirds from 83 starts.

▪ Last winner? Winning Colors (1988).

▪ Last top-three finish? Code of Honor (second, 2019).

▪ This year’s No. 11: Track Phantom (20-1), who will be program number 12.

POST POSITION NO. 12: 3 wins, 3 seconds and 4 thirds from 79 starts.

▪ Last winner? Canonero II (1971).

▪ Last top-three finish? Angel of Empire (third, 2023).

▪ This year’s No. 12: West Saratoga (50-1), who will be program number 13.

POST POSITION NO. 13: 5 wins, 5 seconds and 7 thirds from 77 starts.

▪ Last winner? Nyquist (2016).

▪ Last top-three finish? Nyquist.

▪ This year’s No. 13: Endlessly (30-1), who will be program number 14.

POST POSITION NO. 14: 2 wins, 6 seconds and 6 thirds from 67 starts.

▪ Last winner? Carry Back (1961).

▪ Last top-three finish? Essential Quality (third, 2021).

▪ This year’s No. 14: Domestic Product (30-1), who will be program number 15.

POST POSITION NO. 15: 6 wins, 2 seconds and 1 third from 62 starts.

▪ Last winner? Authentic (2020).

▪ Last top-three finish? Authentic.

▪ This year’s No. 15: Grand Mo the First (50-1), who will be program number 16.

POST POSITION NO. 16: 4 wins, 3 seconds and 3 thirds from 51 starts.

▪ Last winner? Animal Kingdom (2011).

▪ Last top-three finish? Commanding Curve (second, 2014).

▪ This year’s No. 16: Fierceness (5-2 morning line favorite), who will be program number 17.

POST POSITION NO. 17: 0 wins, 1 second and 2 thirds from 44 starts.

▪ Last winner? None.

▪ Last top-three finish? Forty Niner (second, 1988).

▪ This year’s No. 17: Stronghold (20-1), who will be program number 18.

POST POSITION NO. 18: 2 wins, 4 seconds and 0 thirds from 36 starts.

▪ Last winner? Country House (2019).

▪ Last top-three finish? Country House.

▪ This year’s No. 18: Resilience (20-1), who will be program number 19.

POST POSITION NO. 19: 1 win, 1 second and 0 thirds from 30 starts.

▪ Last winner? I’ll Have Another (2012).

▪ Last top-three finish? I’ll Have Another.

▪ This year’s No. 19: Society Man (50-1), who will be program number 20.

POST POSITION NO. 20: 2 wins, 0 seconds and 1 third from 18 starts.

▪ Last winner? Rich Strike (2022).

▪ Last top-three finish? Rich Strike.

▪ This year’s No. 20: Epic Ride (50-1), who will be program number 21.

ALSO-ELIGIBLES:

There are two also-eligible horses for the 2024 Kentucky Derby: Epic Ride (21) and Mugatu (22). Horses listed as also-eligible only gain entry to the Kentucky Derby field if one of the primary 20 horses is scratched before 9 a.m. Friday.

Epic Ride will be in the Kentucky Derby. He moved into the Derby field on Tuesday afternoon after Encino (9) was scratched.

In 2022, Rich Strike moved off the also-eligible list and won the race from post position 20. Last year, all of the also-eligible horses moved into the Derby field, which only featured 18 runners due to a high number of scratches.

Because only 18 horses made the 2023 Derby gate, the decision was made to only fill post positions 1-18 for the race and leave posts 19 and 20 open. This means a horse did not leave from post positions 19 or 20 in last year’s race.

Notes: There have been four combined starts from the No. 21, No. 22 and No. 23 post positions in Derby history. None of those horses finished in the money.

Starting with the 2020 race, Churchill Downs began using a custom-made 20-horse starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. The 65-foot gate replaced the practice of using two gates to accommodate all the Derby horses.

This new gate eliminated a wide gap between post position No. 14 in the main gate and post position No. 15 in the auxiliary gate, and also helps mitigate the disadvantage for horses drawn near the rail.

Which Kentucky Derby post positions are the best draw?

▪ The post position with the most Kentucky Derby winners since 1930 is post No. 5 with 10 winners. It’s the only post position with double-digit race winners since 1930.

With 10 winners from 94 starters, the win percentage from post No. 5 is 10.64%.

The No. 5 post for the 2023 Derby is held by Catalytic, who has morning line odds of 30-1.

▪ The post position with the highest Kentucky Derby winning percentage since 1930 is post No. 20, although that figure is skewed by a small number of starters compared to other post positions.

Out of 18 total starters, two horses have won the Kentucky Derby from post No. 20: Big Brown in 2008 and Rich Strike in 2022.

This means that horses from post No. 20 have an 11.1% winning percentage in the Derby.

Post position 20 wasn’t used in last year’s race. The No. 20 post for the 2023 Derby is held by Epic Ride.

▪ The post position with the highest percentage of top-three finishes in the Kentucky Derby since 1930 is post No. 10, which has had 25 horses finish in the money from 87 starters.

This means 28.7% of Kentucky Derby horses since 1930 who have started from post No. 10 have finished in the money.

The No. 10 post for this year’s race is held by Forever Young (JPN), who has morning line odds of 10-1.

▪ The only post position to be used in the 2023 race that has never produced a previous Derby winner is the No. 17 post, which will be occupied by Stronghold, who has morning-line odds of 20-1.

Stronghold drew post position 18, but moved to starting gate 17 after Encino scratched.

Starters from post No. 17 are 0-for-44 when it comes to winning the Derby, and only three starters from that post have finished in the money.

You have to go all the way back to the 2005 Kentucky Derby to find the last time a horse from post No. 17 (Don’t Get Mad) finished in the top five.