Polls: Haley lags in home state, Trump leads ahead of South Carolina Republican primary

South Carolinians will cast their ballots in the Republican presidential primary Saturday, and despite candidate Nikki Haley’s prior tenure as the state’s governor, polls point to former President Donald Trump as the likely victor.

A February poll led by Suffolk University/USA TODAY published Tuesday morning showed that 63% likely South Carolina Republican primary voters surveyed plan to vote for Trump, while only 35% plan to vote for Haley. The poll was conducted between Feb. 15-18 and included 500 responses.

A larger poll conducted between Feb. 13-15 of likely Republican primary voters in the state led by partisan Trafalgar Group also reported that 63% of responders said they plan to support Trump, compared to less than 34% who said they plan to support Haley.

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Upstate voters largely support Trump over Haley compared to other regions

Both candidates made appearances in the Upstate this week ahead of the weekend’s primary. Still, polling among Upstate residents specifically shows support for Trump.

A poll from The Citadel School of Humanities and Social Sciences included a breakdown of likely South Carolina Republican voters by region. Residents in the Upstate were more likely than residents on the coast or in the Midlands to say they’d vote for Trump in the primary.

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Of Upstate residents who responded to The Citadel survey, 70% said they plan to vote for Trump, compared to only 25% who said they plan to vote for Haley. About 3% of Upstate residents who plan to vote in the primary said they have another candidate in mind, while 1% said they were unsure.

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National poll averages published by news and data site 538 show that nearly 78% of Americans planning to vote in the Republican primary intend to support Trump, compared to nearly 17% who said they plan to vote for Haley.

Although Haley’s polling numbers are higher in her home state than they are across the country, 70% of those planning to vote in the South Carolina Republican primary said they expect Trump to win “by a large margin,” according to the Citadel’s poll.

Haley on Tuesday said that despite Trump’s lead, she does not intend to drop out of the race.

"I have no fear of Trump’s retribution," Haley said during a Tuesday speech in Greenville. "I’m not looking for anything from him."

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South Carolina favored Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, where he received nearly about 55% of the state’s votes in each cycle.

Ahead of the primary, Haley has made campaign stops throughout the state and frequently criticized the former president. The former governor recently made a joke about Trump’s legal fees as he undergoes investigations on the sketch comedy show Saturday Night Live two days ahead of an appearance in Spartanburg.

Trump currently faces 91 felony charges in four states, including allegations that he attempted to reverse results after his loss during the 2020 election. According to a poll from Monmouth University and The Washington Post, 88% of South Carolinians planning to support Trump in the primary believe he should stay on the ticket even if he is convicted of a crime related to the 2020 election.

Voters support tougher immigration enforcement, platforms of both candidates

Haley’s polling numbers may be trailing Trump’s, but her platform resonates with Upstate supporters according to the Suffolk University poll.

In the Upstate, 42% of those who responded to the survey said immigration and border security were the most pressing concerns in the country.

Throughout Haley’s various South Carolina appearances, including a rally in Greer on Monday night, she’s indicated she would crack down on border security. Haley frequently uses the line “Instead of a catch and release, we’ll do a catch and deport,” when speaking at her events.

Trump has also been a vocal supporter of large-scale deportation and border arrest programs. Ahead of his presidency, he claimed he would build a wall around the U.S. southern border, which he did not complete.

The Suffolk University poll also showed that despite Trump’s general lead, Haley was more popular among those planning to vote in the Republican primary who would lean more liberal or moderate. In both categories, 59% of those surveyed said they’d support Haley rather than Trump in the primary.

Polls show higher support for Trump among white voters

More than 90% of those who responded to the Trafalgar Group survey were white, as were more than 84% of responders in the Suffolk University survey.

In South Carolina, white residents make up nearly 69% of the state, while Black residents make up more than 26%. Asian residents account for 2% of the state’s population and Hispanic or Latino residents account for nearly 7%.

As of Jan. 31, more than 3.24 million South Carolinians were registered to vote.Black voters accounted for 24.4% of registered voters in the state, Asian voters made up 1.3%, Hispanic residents made up slightly over 2% and Native American voters made up less than 1%. White voters accounted for 71% of registered voters in the state.

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Meanwhile, The Citadel poll showed a similar demographic divide in support for the former president. Among white responders, 63% had a somewhat or very favorable opinion of Trump, compared to only 14% of Black responders.

A Trump victory Saturday could set up a likely rematch with incumbent President Joe Biden. Biden won the South Carolina Democratic primary at the beginning of February. The Associated Press called the race just over 20 minutes past the opening of the polls, with Biden sweeping about 96% of the vote.

Sarah Swetlik covers climate change and environmental issues in South Carolina's Upstate for The Greenville News. Reach her at sswetlik@gannett.com or on X at @sarahgswetlik.

This article originally appeared on Greenville News: Polls: Haley lags behind Trump ahead of SC Republican primary