Polling guru John Curtice’s general election prediction for ‘brave or foolhardy’ Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak is “either very brave or extremely foolhardy” to call a snap election, according to Britain’s leading election expert.

Professor Sir John Curtice said the Conservatives face a “major challenge” to hold on to power and that the election is “for Labour to win”.

The prime minister ended months of speculation on Wednesday, announcing that the general election will take place on 4 July.

Mr Sunak made the decision to move after it was announced that inflation had fallen to 2.3 per cent, allowing the PM to push the message that “the plan is working”.

Sir John said the task confronting him was as big as the one that confronted former Tory prime minister John Major in 1997, when he lost heavily to Tony Blair’s Labour.

“On average, the polls show Labour on 44 points, 21 ahead of the Conservatives, an enormous figure to turn round,” said Sir John.

Tory troubles increased in recent months with the rise of the rightwing Reform Party, which could cut the Conservative vote by five or six per cent.

“It looks like an election for Labour to win,” said Sir John.

“Two words come to mind concerning Mr Sunak’s decision. He is either very brave or extremely foolhardy. And we will discover in the early hours of 5 July which of those judgements prove to be correct.”

Sir John said changes in constituency boundaries will give a slight advantage to the Conservatives compared to the 2019 election.

But a much bigger factor in Labour’s favour is a “clear pattern” from recent surveys and the local elections that Conservative support is crumbling in its heartlands.

“The Conservative vote is falling more heavily in areas where they were strongest,” he said “This is potentially very bad news indeed. They are at risk of losing more seats than they would expect.”