Poll: Americans' sympathies shift sharply toward Israel in early days of Hamas war
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that Americans’ sympathies have shifted sharply toward Israel in the early days of its war against Hamas.
The survey of 1,675 U.S. adults was conducted from Oct. 12 to 16 — shortly after Hamas’s initial surprise attacks on Israel but just before the explosion Tuesday night at Gaza’s al-Ahli Hospital, where many Palestinian civilians had taken shelter.
At the moment, both Israeli and Palestinian officials are blaming each other for the deadly blast. If its cause becomes clear in the coming days, public opinion could change again.
According to the new survey, however, Americans now align firmly — though not uniformly — with Israel.
Most Americans say Hamas is a terrorist group
The last time Yahoo News and YouGov polled the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was in May 2021, when the eviction of six Palestinian families in East Jerusalem triggered an outbreak of violence.
Asked then if their “sympathies lie more with” Israel or Palestine, 30% of Americans said the former and 15% said the latter.
Today, those numbers are 43% and 9%, respectively — a net shift of nearly 20 percentage points in Israel’s favor.
Slightly more than a quarter of Americans continue to say their sympathies are “about equal,” then (28%) as now (27%).
This movement toward Israel is evident throughout the latest results:
More than two-thirds of Americans (67%) now consider “helping to protect Israel” to be an important goal for “U.S. policy towards the Middle East,” up 12 points from from 55% in May 2021
Nearly the same number (66%) now say Hamas is either “entirely” (47%) or “mostly” (19%) “responsible for the current hostilities,” up 27 points from 39% in May 2021.
In contrast, just 16% of Americans consider Israel mostly or entirely responsible (down from 24% in May 2021), while 30% consider it somewhat responsible (up from 21%) and 32% consider it not at all responsible (up from 21%).
The share who agree with the statement “Hamas is a terrorist organization” has risen 22 points since May 2021, to 69%.
In line with these findings, Americans are also twice as likely — for now — to say Israel should "take further military action against Hamas to protect Israeli citizens" (47%) rather than "de-escalate military action against Hamas to avoid harming Palestinians civilians" (24%).
Yet, a large number of Americans (29%) also admit they’re not sure how Israel should proceed — a result that reflects the both evolving complexities of the conflict and the domestic political dynamics that could reshape public opinion in response to events on the ground.
How Democrats drive the change
Digging deeper into the data, it’s clear that the biggest swings in opinion since May 2021 have occurred on the left side of the U.S. political spectrum.
Sympathy with Israel over the Palestinians, for example, has increased by 22 percentage points among Democrats (from 13% to 35%) and by 12 points among independents (from 28% to 40%). Among Republicans, it has increased by just two points (from 63% to 65%).
Likewise, the belief that Americans should support Israel more than the Palestinians has increased by 18 points (from 10% to 28%) among Democrats and by 13 points among independents (from 24% to 37%). Again, among Republicans it has increased by just two points (from 58% to 60%).
Republicans still more likely to back Israel
Overall support for Israel, however, remains lower among Democrats than Republicans — a dynamic that reflects growing partisan polarization on the Israeli-Palestinian issue in recent years.
Nearly three-quarters of Republicans (74%) rate Israel favorably, compared to 54% of Democrats. Six in 10 Republicans (60%) say America should give more support to Israel than the Palestinians, compared to 28% of Democrats. And Republicans view Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a conservative, much more positively (52% favorable, 15% unfavorable) than Democrats do (24% favorable, 40% unfavorable).
So while more Democrats currently think Israel should take further action against Hamas to protect Israeli citizens (37%) rather than de-escalate to avoid harming Palestinian civilians (32%), the margin is much narrower than it is among Republicans (66% take further action, 16% de-escalate) — and it could become narrower still, or reverse entirely, amid a prolonged war with ever-mounting civilian casualties.
And that, in turn, could put pressure on President Biden as the rockets and recriminations continue to fly.
How the war could affect the presidential race
For now, 52% of Democrats say Biden’s response to the situation has been “about right”; just 15% say it has been “too pro-Israel.” Meanwhile, a plurality of Republicans (41%) say Biden’s response has “not been pro-Israel” enough — despite the fact that the president has been extremely vocal about his support for the Jewish State.
As a result of these partisan dynamics, just 36% of Americans currently approve of the way Biden is handling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict; 40% disapprove. Similarly, 40% of Americans — particularly Republicans (81%) — believe former President Donald Trump would handle the situation better than Biden (33%).
But, tellingly, a full quarter of Americans in both cases say they’re not sure what to think.
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The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,675 U.S. adults interviewed online from Oct. 12 to 16, 2023. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to March 15, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (32% Democratic, 27% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.7%.
