Playoff race, trade deadline, Alcantara’s Cy Young race: Setting stage for Marlins’ second half

The All-Star break is over. The games are about to pick back up again.

For the Miami Marlins, that means it’s go time.

After a homestand mostly to forget prior to the break — one in they split a four-game set with the Pittsburgh Pirates and scored just one run while getting swept in three games by the Philadelphia Phillies — the Marlins (43-48) have a lot of work to do and not a lot of time to do it if they want to still consider themselves in the playoff race.

It starts at 1:10 p.m. Thursday with a standalone game against the Texas Rangers at loanDepot park before starting a seven-game road trip — three games with the Pirates and a four-game set with the Cincinnati Reds.

“Hopefully we bounce back,” Marlins manager Don Mattingly said, “and have more fight, more energy, more persistence and all the words you want to use.”

Here are five Marlins topics to follow for the final two-plus months of the season.

Can they stay in the playoff race?

Miami enters the second half of the season five games under .500 and five-and-a-half games back of the Phillies (49-43) for the National League’s third and final wild card spot. Two other teams — the St. Louis Cardinals (50-44) and San Francisco Giants (48-43) — are also ahead of Miami but behind Philadelphia in the standings.

The Marlins aren’t necessarily out of the race but they need to play well — and, of course win — over this first eight-game stretch out of the break before hosting the New York Mets for three games if they want to stay afloat.

Can they get the offense going?

This will be key if the Marlins want to get out of the gate strong in the second half.

So far in July, the Marlins rank 29th in MLB with a .572 on-base-plus-slugging percentage, 29th in runs scored (48 in 17 games, a 2.82 runs-per-game average) and are tied with the Los Angeles Angels for the fewest home runs (nine). In fact, Miami hasn’t hit a home run in eight consecutive games, one shy of tying the franchise record for the longest stretch without a home run.

Among regulars in the lineup, no one has an OPS above .700 and only three are hitting at least .250: Joey Wendle (.265), Jesus Aguilar (.250) and Brain Anderson (.250).

Garrett Cooper? He’s hitting .135 this month (7 for 52) with 21 strikeouts. Avisail Garcia? .216 average (11 for 51) with 16 strikeouts. Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez? A combined .167 (17 for 102) with 27 strikeouts.

The Marlins are playing without Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jon Berti, two sparkplugs at the top of the order, but they need someone — anyone — to step up.

What will they do at the trade deadline?

If the Marlins manage to stay in the playoff race and perceive themselves as buyers when the Aug. 2 deadline arrives, the priorities should be a consistent bat to fortify the lineup — ideally an outfielder, considering that’s where most of the offensive inconsistencies are occurring in the lineup — and another high-leverage reliever to add another piece to the bullpen so they don’t have to solely rely on three-man group of Anthony Bass, Steven Okert and Tanner Scott.

If they fall off and end up selling, it would be logical to ship off one of Cooper or Aguilar, a move that would allow Lewin Diaz to get regular playing time in the big leagues over the final two months and could free up the designated hitter slot to give other prospects reps (more on that in a minute).

Also, Bass, Okert and Dylan Floro would be logical bullpen trade chips. Bass is on the final guaranteed year of his deal that includes a $3 million club option. Okert is still pre-arbitration and under team control for four more years. Floro still has one more year of arbitration.

Will Sandy Alcantara stay on his Cy Young Award pace?

Alcantara finished the first half of the season with a 1.76 ERA while throwing an MLB-high 138 1/3 innings over 19 starts.

Assuming he stays healthy the full season and he stays at this rate of about seven innings pitched per game, this puts Alcantara on track to throw about 240 innings this season — a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since both Johnny Cueto and David Price both hit that mark in 2014.

In fact, only seven pitchers total since 2010 have pitched at least 240 innings in a season, with only four of those seven posting an ERA below 2.50 (Cueto in 2014, 243 2/3 innings, 2.25 ERA; Justin Verlander in 2011, 251 innings, 2.40 ERA; Roy Halladay in 2020, 250 2/3 innings, 2.44 ERA; and Fleix Hernandez in 2010, 249 2/3 innings, 2.27 ERA).

The last time a pitcher threw at least 240 innings and have an ERA below 2.00? One has to go back to 1997, when Pedro Martinez threw 241 1/3 innings with a 1.90 ERA for the Montreal Expos.

That’s a feat that’s not out of the cards for Alcantara, although it would require him to essentially repeat what he has done for the past two months for the rest of the season.

What prospects could get call-ups?

Max Meyer is already with Miami and in the rotation. Jerar Encarnacion is already on the 40-man roster and got to play two games — including hitting a go-ahead grand slam in his MLB debut — and would likely get another chance should the roster spot open up.

Beyond them, could the Marlins give 2019 first-round pick JJ Bleday a taste of the big leagues? He’s hit 20 home runs and has an .833 OPS in Triple A Jacksonville.