Players, Mattingly discuss if Marlins can win with such a low payroll. What history shows

Part 6 of a 7-part series on the state of the Marlins’ franchise as year five of the latest rebuild concludes.

Money, in baseball, doesn’t guarantee anything.

But it does give your team a better chance of winning.

And the Marlins - under their fourth different owner - remain in the same predicament they’ve been for much of their existence: unable to spend nearly as much as many of their competitors.

When H. Wayne Huizenga spent big in 1997, the Marlins won a World Series with the fifth highest payroll in baseball ($52 million).

In 2003, early in Jeffrey Loria’s ownership, they won a World Series with the sixth-lowest payroll ($49 million). But that was the exception; when they haven’t spent much at all - compared to most teams - they’ve usually finished well below .500.

The Marlins’ $80 million payroll pales in comparison to their National League East rivals: the Mets ($266 million), Philadelphia ($244 million), Atlanta ($185 million) and Washington ($135 million).

Owner Bruce Sherman won’t commit publicly to a $90 million payroll next season, let alone $100 million.

So can the Marlins possibly win with a fraction of the financial resources of the other teams in their division?

Don Mattingly, who is leaving the Marlins after seven years as manager, offered a two-word answer to that question:

“Tampa Bay.”

The Rays have had one of the five lowest payrolls in baseball in the past five non-COVID seasons. They’ve won at least 80 games in each of those seasons, won 100 games once and have made the playoffs four years in a row.

“If there’s somebody to look up to - and you don’t want to be anybody else, you want to be yourself [it’s Tampa],” Mattingly said. “But to say you can’t [compete with a low payroll], is not fair. You’ve got to be better at what you do.”

The Rays spent $12 million less than the Marlins in 2019 and won 39 more games. They spent $10 million more than the Marlins in 2021 and won 33 more games. This season, they spent $6 million more than the Marlins and entered the final day of the season with 18 more wins.

But in some ways, the Rays are an outlier.

A Miami Herald analysis of the past five non-COVID seasons, heading into this season, revealed that of the teams with the five lowest payrolls each of those five seasons, just seven finished above .500 and only four made the playoffs.

Twelve of those 25 teams lost 90 or more games.

Of the five lowest spenders this season (per Associated Press figures), the Marlins, Pittsburgh and Oakland were well below .500, while Cleveland and Baltimore had winning records.

The Guardians’ $60 million payroll was $20 million less than the Marlins’ payroll this season, and they entered Wednesday with a 91-70 record, compared with Miami’s 68-93 mark.

The Orioles’ payroll was $22 million less than the Marlins and they entered Wednesday at 83-78.

So winning with a low payroll can be done. But the Marlins need to make far fewer mistakes in personnel decisions, particularly with hitters.

“You have to be better at developing,” Mattingly said. “We have to develop guys that walk into the big leagues that are pretty good players. Atlanta is a great example. They’ve got a pretty good payroll but they walk in with Michael Harris, who has 19 homers, [Vaughn] Grisholm comes up and tears it up. Ozzie Albes, [Ronald] Acuna come out of their system. Those are the things we have to be able to do.

“That’s where you have to be good. We can’t afford misses. If the Dodgers or Yankees have a miss, they swallow it and move on. We just can’t do that. That’s where we’ve got to be good about developing players. If that’s building the system to the point where you can actually have patience and allow guys to develop and execute to the point where when they come up, they can make an impact. If they can’t, then they shouldn’t be in the system.”

While the Braves have developed a handful of high-end position players in the past few years, the Marlins have developed only one who has made an impact at the major league level: shortstop Jazz Chisholm, who was acquired from Arizona for pitcher Zac Gallen.

During Sherman’s ownership, none of the Marlins’ other young position players have been able to consistently hit big-league pitching. Derek Jeter was CEO for five of Sherman’s five years as owner.

“When I got here, there were a bunch of hitters - [Marcell] Ozuna, [Christian] Yelich, [Giancarlo] Stanton, JT Realmuto,” Mattingly said. “It has been there in the past. It’s possible to find those guys. It’s trying to match these groups up together with pitching and hitting. At some point, like in Tampa, whoever they bring up is getting outs and they’re finding players. We have to do the same.”

The Marlins have very good young pitching. But finding better hitters remains a major problem as Bruce Sherman’s fifth year of ownership comes to a close.

“We’ve had a lot of young studs pitching wise come up,” Marlins first baseman Garrett Cooper said. “Hitting wise, we haven’t lived up to the billing of a lot of prospect status I’ve seen the last five years. I don’t know why the pitching is so much better now for us than the hitting is.

“There are going to be times where it takes a hitter a year or two. You.. hope a couple of these hitters turn into the above average hitter that you hope.

“But to be successful in this division, you either have to have those guys come up and perform right away or you have to go out and spend the money and hopefully you strike gold with three or four different free agent signings.

“The Braves have had young guys come up with success. Yes, they’re spending money, but they’re locking their guys in at a young age. A lot of their young guys have come up and performed in ways you don’t see in a lot of organizations. To have four or five stars come up through your farm system as position players, that’s something with their scouting. You see with the Mets, they spend a bunch of money and are at the top of their division.”

Does the payroll disparity with other NL East teams leave Marlins players disheartened?

“I don’t think so,” Cooper said. “Some teams spend a lot of money that haven’t worked out. Even a high payroll doesn’t mean success. Even if you sign all these guys and the payroll is high, you still have to stay healthy.”

The payroll gap between the Marlins and the other teams in their division wouldn’t be so significant if the players and owners had instituted a salary floor in the new labor agreement that was ratified before this season.

“I don’t think it was really considered, a cap or a floor,” catcher Jacob Stallings said. “We already negotiated the CBA; this is just how it’s going to be. I certainly think we can be in position to compete next year.”

Mattingly indicated Marlins fans can have no delusions, no hope that a deep-pocketed businessman will come in and rescue the franchise.

“You have to accept who you are,” he said. “I don’t think we’re ever going to compete with L.A. and have a $300 million payroll or the Yankees or any teams like that. This market doesn’t dictate that. I don’t think it matters who the owners are; nobody is going to come in and put that kind of money in.”

NOTABLE

▪ Mattingly, whose Marlins managerial tenure ended on Wednesday, said he has spoken to Sherman about another job in the organization, but nothing was decided. He’s not retiring.

How does he look back at his tenure? “I‘m disappointed. I felt like I came here to build a sustainable product that had some continuity to it. The way we went about our business and culture, I’m disappointed it hasn’t gotten stronger. If I’m realistic and look in the mirror, I’m disappointed it hasn’t been better.”

Here’s part 1 of the series on whatever happened to the Marlins’ top 35 position players during this regime, and how few so far have worked out.

Here’s part 2 of the series on the team’s top 10 position prospects and the team’s growing payroll disparity within their division.

Here’s part 3 of the series on some of the other position prospects.

Here’s part 4 on how the Marlins plan to fundamentally change the way they construct their team offensively.

Here’s part 5 of the series Marlins’ comments and news on five of their key pitchers.

Coming Thursday: Part 7, the final installment in this series.