Peterson's game preview and prediction for Iowa State football vs. Kansas State

Question of the moment: How in the heck does Iowa State figure to keep possessions alive while playing another wonderful defensive-minded opponent on Saturday?

By passing? The 19th-ranked Kansas State outfit the Cyclones face is No. 2 in Big 12 pass defense, allowing just 217.4 yards a game.

By rushing? Chris Klieman’s Wildcats have the conference’s third-best rush defense, at just 159.3 yards each game.

Those are reasons Saturday’s 7 p.m. opponent at Bill Snyder Family Stadium presents a tougher matchup for the Cyclones than Texas did last Saturday.

You knew running against the Longhorns’ defensive front was next-to-impossible, and getting just nine yards on 21 carries proved that.

You also knew going into last Saturday night that Iowa State had a better chance of being more productive throwing the ball than running.

More: Peterson: Iowa State's Rocco Becht is in the hunt for freshman All-America quarterback

So for the Cyclones, which is more important: opponent statistics or the eye test?

“You try to do everything in your power to look at a little of everything,” coach Matt Campbell said this week. “They’re going to look at you to.

“What you may think you may get sometimes changes. The ability make the right adjustments – to take what the defense and the flow of the game gives you ... and you have a group that can pressure you at times, can drop eight.”

More: Matt Campbell on Iowa State's rivalry matchup with Kansas State, Kirk Ferentz's success

That sounds something like the defense Iowa State sees every day in practice, when sessions include good going against good.

“Kansas State executes its defense well,” quarterback Rocco Becht said. “The good thing is that our defense runs the same defense. Going up against them during the whole off-season and fall camp prepares us for teams that play that kind of defense.

“They (Kansas State) have eight players usually dropping back. Holes are tight. They may (bring pressure) early, they may come late. They’re going to get you on some plays, some drives, because they have so many guys dropping back.”

That’s why I say Saturday against the Wildcats presents a tougher matchup than last Saturday against Texas.

What does the Register’s Iowa State text group think?

We certainly have to move the ball better on the ground. I think we also need to try and go deep on the outside if we can get enough time to throw deep.

What struck me after analyzing the drive chart from the Texas game was that Iowa State ran nine times into the middle on first down – for a total of 13 yards. That’s the definition of playing from behind the sticks. I expect a more varied selection of plays on Saturday.

I’m worried about this game being a lot like the final TCU game last year. Senior Day and a lot to play for.

Except that Kansas State isn’t involved in the College Football Playoff final four this time. Iowa State had nothing to play for last year, but this season is different. A seven-win season after going 4-8 – that’s heavy stuff. A three-win turnaround could land CMC in the conversation for another Big 12 Coach of the Year award.

Rocco to Sama on a wheel route for the first score of the game.

That’d be fun, especially if it was on the game’s first play. I’m anticipating using as much of the playbook as the Kansas State defense and the weather will allow. I’ve been seeing snow called for in Manhattan. Farmageddon. Snow Bowl. What the heck, it’s still a great rivalry, that the genius of the Big 12 decided not to preserve.

Randy Peterson's Cyclones-Wildcats breakdown

Iowa State (5-3, 6-5) at No. 19 Kansas State (6-2, 8-3)

Time, TV, line: 7 p.m., FOX, Kansas State by 10

Where Iowa State has the edge: Jon Heacock’s defense usually is an advantage, regardless of the opponent. Saturday, Kansas State quarterback Will Howard will be seeking success against a defense that’s intercepted a whopping 15 passes, tied for fourth nationally and No. 1 in the Big 12. Will he throw away from Jeremiah Cooper, Beau Freyler and T.J. Tampa, with a combined 10 picks? I doubt Howard can accomplish that on the same play.

More: What it means to lose the Iowa State football vs. Kansas State annual rivalry in the Big 12

Where Kansas State has the edge: D.J. Giddens averages 93 rushing yards a game. He’ll be running against one of the Big 12’s top defenses, so that’s about a push. Where the Wildcats have the edge is in where the game is played. Klieman’s team is 4-0 and averages 46.3 points at home against Big 12 opponents. That’s an edge, for sure, against a team that’s not had a lot of success during games in the Little Apple.

Prediction: The weather keeps changing for Saturday’s game. One day, it’s no snow. The next day, it’s snow. Slippy conditions often favor teams with the best rushing attack. In this case, that’s not been Iowa State. Nonetheless ... IOWA STATE 20, KANSAS STATE 17

Friday's Big 12 games

TCU (3-5, 5-6) at No. 13 Oklahoma (6-2, 8-3)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., FOX, Oklahoma by 11 ½

Prediction: Will TCU really go from the College Football Playoff championship game one season to not even reaching the bowl-qualifying standard of six wins the next? That’ll happen unless coach Sonny Dykes’ team pulls an Iowa State-like 2017 rabbit out of its helmet. OKLAHOMA 34, TCU 20

Texas Tech (5-3, 6-5) at No. 7 Texas (7-1, 10-1)

Time, TV, line: 6:30 p.m., ABC, Texas by 13 ½

Prediction: At home with the College Football Playoff still on the table? I can’t even see this outcome being close. Not only must the Longhorns win, but they also must pass the selection committee’s visual inspection. That’s another way to say Saturday is a good time for an offensive explosion. TEXAS 41, TEXAS TECH 24

Saturday's other Big 12 games

Houston (2-6, 4-7) at UCF (2-6, 5-6)

Time TV, line: 11 a.m., FS1, UCF by 13 ½

Prediction: This heads my Big 12 weekly Who Cares? list. Sure, this game is important for UCF making a bowl in its first Big 12 season. You also can make a point that Houston coach Dana Holgorsen needs as much goodwill among Cougars boosters as he can muster. UCF 27, HOUSTON 10

West Virginia (5-3, 7-4) at Baylor (2-6, 3-8)

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FS1, West Virginia by 7

Prediction: If you’re West Virginia, why stop now? The Mountaineers have already made people picking them toward the Big 12’s bottom eat their words. Baylor hasn’t been very good. An eight-win season for Neal Brown? He certainly has saved his job. WEST VIRGINIA 24, BAYLOR 21

Kansas (4-4, 7-4) at Cincinnati (1-7, 3-8)

Time, TV, line: 6:30 p.m., ESPN2, Kansas by 6

Prediction: In basketball parlance, this is a layup. KANSAS 31, CINCINNATI 10

Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson is in his 51st year writing sports for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, on X @RandyPete, and at DesMoinesRegister.com/CyclonesTexts

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State football vs. K-State: Peterson's game preview, prediction