Peterson: Breaking down Iowa State football's Big 12 title game chances

I haven’t even tried figuring out the Big 12’s formula for breaking ties, although that’s what some of you are likely doing. Iowa State is one of five football teams with a shot to play in the conference championship game.

Before delving into who plays whom during the season’s remaining two weekends, to be even writing something like this right now is a credit to Matt Campbell, his staff and the players they coach.

From 4-8 one season to top-five in the Big 12 with two games to play? That’s pretty impressive, considering what the team has battled both on and off the field. That’s the deal after Saturday’s convincing 45-13 victory at BYU.

Next is seventh-ranked Texas at 7 p.m. Saturday (FOX) at what’s sure to be a hoppin’ Jack Trice Stadium. Then it’s at Kansas State. The Longhorns have College Football Playoff visions in their final Big 12 season. The Wildcats won the most recent Big 12 Championship Game.

More: Peterson: Iowa State's success on third down was the big factor in the BYU win

Campbell wouldn’t have it any other way, to be honest (although I’m pretty sure he’d like a Kansas do-over). He loves opportunities like this. I wish he allowed the media to watch practices, like some coaches do, because it’d be intriguing seeing the enthusiasm, intensity and concentration we saw throughout last Saturday night’s game.

Moving on ...

What’s the cleanest way for the Cyclones to return to the championship game for the first time since 2020? (I can’t believe I just wrote those words) Let’s start with remaining opponents, and let’s do it in order of the standings:

Texas (6-1 Big 12, 9-1 overall): at Iowa State, at home against Texas Tech (4-3, 5-5)

Iowa State (5-2, 6-4): Home against the Longhorns, and at Kansas State (5-2, 7-3)

Kansas State (5-2, 7-3): at Kansas (4-3, 7-3), home against the Cyclones

Oklahoma (5-2, 8-2): at BYU (2-5, 5-5), home against TCU (2-5, 4-6)

Oklahoma State (5-2, 7-3): at Houston (2-5, 4-6), home against BYU

With that in mind, here’s the Cyclones’ least-complicated path to where no one outside the locker room expected to be this season:

• Start with beating Texas and Kansas State. That’d be 7-2 in the Big 12.

• Assume both Oklahoma programs win their final games. Welcome to the 7-2 club.

• Kansas State loses its final games. Five won’t cut it.

• Texas splits – losing against the Cyclones and beating Texas Tech. There’s plenty of room on the 7-2 hayrack.

If that happens, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas tie for first place. As for the tie-breaker – all I know is that Iowa State beat Oklahoma State and would have beaten the Longhorns under this scenario.

Here’s the Big 12’s multiple-team tie-breaker formula, and don’t @RandyPete if you get a headache figuring it out:

In the event of a tie between more than two teams, the following procedures will be used. After one team has an advantage and is “seeded,” all remaining teams in the multiple-team tiebreaker will repeat the multiple-team tie-breaking procedure. If at any point the multiple-team tie is reduced to two teams, the two-team tie-breaking procedure will be applied.

1. Head-to-head (best cumulative win percentage in games among the tied teams). If not, every tied team has played each other, go to step 2.

2. Record against the next highest placed common opponent in the standings (based on record in all games played within the conference), proceeding through the standings.

1. When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team’s win percentage against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group’s own tie-breaking procedure) rather than the performance against individual tied teams.

3. Win percentage against all common conference opponents (must be common among all teams involved in the tie).

4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents (i.e., strength of conference schedule).

5. Total number of wins in a 12-game season. The following conditions will apply to the calculation of the total number of wins:

1. Only one win against a team from the NCAA Football Championship Subdivision or lower division will be counted annually.

2. Any games that are exempted from counting against the annual maximum number of football contests per NCAA rules. (current Bylaw 17.10.5.2.1) shall not be included.

6. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics (team Rating Score metric) following the last weekend of regular-season games.

7. Coin toss

More: Mailbag: Is Iowa State football back in the Big 12 title game conversation?

There are so many scenarios in this five-team chase that it’s way more easier interacting with the Register’s Iowa State text-group than trying to make sense of the conference race with two weekends to play. Here's a sampling of their comments:

Nice to see Abu Sama back in the game plan

Indeed it was. The true freshman from Southeast Polk was dominant for the first time since last season’s state championship. His 59-yard rushing touchdown was the longest of his career, and the longest rushing touchdown by a Cyclone since Breece Hall sprinted 80 yards against TCU in 2021. First career 100-yard (actually 110 yards) rushing game. First Iowa State running back with a 100-yard rushing game since Jirehl Brock against Iowa last season. First Cyclone freshman with a 100-yard rushing game since Hall against Texas in 2021. He was quick. He was shifty. If you know the cliché about “breaking ankles” of defenders – then you’ll know that’s generally what he did.

I think this season is perhaps Campbell's best at Iowa State, given the betting scandal and the youth of this team.

Don’t forget the quick turnaround in 2017 – from 3-9 his first season to 8-4 and the Liberty Bowl the next. There’s also 2020, when COVID broke out everywhere except the Iowa State locker room and ISU ended up in the Big 12 Championship Game. As for this season, I’d rank it very high, and I would not argue if someone wants to make it No. 1. With so much youth, it makes you wonder if this program has a ceiling.

Thanks to the Big 12 schedulers, two road games against new conference members. These new teams have yet to adjust to a Power 5 schedule.

Yes, and the Cyclones won at Baylor, too. Iowa State has won three conference road games in the same season for the first time since 1978. That’s really impressive. As for the newcomers against whom the Cyclones have defeated by a combined 75-23, they’re not up to major-conference standards yet. They’re 7-21 against Big 12 opponents. My hunch is that they’ll scan the portal for physical linemen. That’s been the biggest difference to me.

Game ball to Nate Scheelhaase. Loved the play calling. Saw flashes of Barry Sanders in Sama. That kid will be a force in the future.

You hit it all – without play-calling that included Sama, the rookie wouldn’t have been in position to show his stuff. Iowa State’s offensive plan even included a middle screen to freshman tight end Ben Brahmer. We hadn’t seen many middle screens this season, so there’s a big example of opening the playbook. As for the Sama-Sanders comparison − I get where you’re coming from. Sanders was shifty while becoming one of college football’s greatest running backs. Sama faked BYU defenders into oblivion a few times and finished with eight rushes for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson is in his 51st year writing sports for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, on X @RandyPete, and at DesMoinesRegister.com/CyclonesTexts

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State football has path to Big 12 title game, but it's not simple