Pete Hammond’s Final Oscar Predictions: ‘Everything Everywhere All At Once’, ‘All Quiet On The Western Front’, ‘Elvis’, ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ May Be Multiple Winners

For the first time since 2020, just before Covid dealt a devastating blow to the industry, exhibitors and awards season, it feels like this year’s Oscar show may return to some sense of normalcy. And with box office hits mixed with acclaimed indies among the 10 Best Picture nominees, this could be the turning point in the recovery of the Academy Awards.

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At the nominees’ luncheon, in fact, Steven Spielberg was overheard telling Tom Cruise that he may have saved the movie business with Top Gun: Maverick, 2022’s No. 1 movie and a billion-dollar rescue for the industry. On Maverick’s tail came Avatar: The Way of Water, which became the third biggest global-grossing film of all time. And shock of shocks, both of those long-gestating sequels are Best Picture contenders with 10 nominations between them.

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That means audiences may be ready to come back to the Oscars to root for their favorites, something sorely needed. Throw in other box office successes like Elvis and Everything Everywhere All at Once, and you have a recipe for recovery. Interestingly only one streamer, Netflix, with their German World War I film All Quiet on the Western Front, made the list, but watch out, it has gained some steam and could be Netflix’s first Best Picture winner. To do so, however, it would have to defy all statistical odds in the entire history, at least recent history, of the 95 years of the Academy Awards, as it faces the enormous momentum of Everything Everywhere All at Once.

The acting races are also tight, particularly Best Actor, where in precursor ceremonies we have seen major wins by Colin Farrell, Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser. Pundits have been calling it for all three, but only one will prevail. And since Michelle Yeoh has been closing in on Cate Blanchett, the easy front-runner since Venice, the Best Actress race is also turning out to be a nail biter, and you can throw in a few other quite uncertain categories as well. Fascinating year.

Here is how I see it playing out in my final final predictions in all 23 categories. If you use this ballot to enter your office pool, remember my standard operating rule: I am NOT responsible if you lose, so don’t sue me.

BEST PICTURE

The Academy, for a second year running, has returned to a firm 10 nominees, but the real contenders, based on what we are seeing in the run-up to the Oscars, number about five. Major critics circles rallied around Tár, although the televised Critics Choice Awards heaped riches on Everything Everywhere All at Once. That film has also done well at the industry guild awards, especially in the major quartet of PGA, DGA, SAG, and WGA where it pulled off a clean sweep. No film in history that has done this, and there have only been four — American Beauty, No Country For Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire and Argo — all of which went on to win the Best Picture Oscar (and with the exception of No Country For Old Men they all won Best Film at the other important industry bellwether, BAFTA). So it would be the latter film with which EEAAO has most in common since it also lost at BAFTA taking home only one of its 10 nominations (for Film Editing) and losing resoundingly to the German-language All Quiet which won Best Film and six other awards there, perhaps signaling strong international appeal, an area AMPAS has been expanding into lately.

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The rub for AQOTWF is that it wasn’t nominated at any of the major guilds (ineligible at a couple of them), so this seems really to be a lopsided affair in the end in favor of EEAAO, especially since AQOTWF doesn’t have an Oscar nomination for Best Director and voters may think that just giving it Best International Film is enough. Also, no remake of a Best Picture winner has ever won before, and the film has no actors nominated, another drawback since that branch is the Academy’s largest by far and gave EEAAO a whopping four acting nominations. All Quiet comes from Netflix, the streamer that is still a sore spot for some in the Academy, plus only one foreign-language film has ever won, Parasite, making all this even more unlikely.

The season didn’t start out as a romp for EEAAO. The Golden Globes anointed two other films: Steven Spielberg’s early front-runner The Fabelmans, for Drama, and Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin for Comedy/Musical.

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Don’t discount fan and voter favorites Top Gun: Maverick and Elvis, both enormously popular in the Academy — the latter taking four BAFTAs off eight nominations. But call me nuts: I have a hunch, mostly based on Oscar voter conversations over the past few months, that it will finally be the year for Netflix, particularly with the Ukraine war making the classic antiwar story of AQOTWF uncannily timely and important. There is also the factor of the Academy’s way of counting votes with a weighted ballot only used in the Best Picture race, where voters must number their choice from 1 being favorite to 10 being least favorite in order to get a consensus. Conventional wisdom tells us there may be a generational divide in the Academy when it comes to EEAAO more than an overall consensus, with perhaps older voters ranking it lower and making something like a AQOTWF more acceptable or even a Top Gun: Maverick even if EEAAO easily lands more No. 1 votes. But again, keep in mind for your Oscar betting that this is like a 100-to-1 longshot against EEAAO which also contains one other key component I think is a strong lure for voters, and that is heart, and there is the fact that Oscar and BAFTA have matched only once in the past eight years when it comes to Best Picture. Still, going way out on that limb….

THE WINNER:  All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ACTOR

(L-R) Austin Butler, Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Paul Mescal and Bill Nighy
(L-R) Austin Butler, Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Paul Mescal and Bill Nighy

This appears to be the tightest of the four acting categories. Barring any last-minute surprises, it has become a three-way race to the top, one where a few votes could make the difference. Colin Farrell got the season off leaning his way at Venice where he took the Volpe Cup and has since added a Golden Globe for his career-best work in The Banshees of Inisherin, along with numerous critics awards. With three other acclaimed performances all released in 2022, this could be his year. He beat The Whale’s Brendan Fraser at Venice, but Fraser came back and won at Critics Choice, and then a very key win at SAG giving him late inning momentum in the race.

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Austin Butler took the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama and also gained tremendous momentum by somewhat surprisingly winning over four UK nominees (including Farrell) at the BAFTAs, meaning his performance as the musical icon could be transcendent. As Sissy Spacek, Jamie Foxx and Rami Malek have proven, it can be irresistible to Oscar voters when you play a music legend, someone instantly recognizable. That may be the edge in a race that is simply and truly too close to call. All five in this category BTW are first-time nominees, and it is an embarrassment of riches in terms of performances. I think the town may be rooting especially for Fraser, who has the comeback scenario and a stunning portrayal, but it may be hard to beat The King and Elvis, like Banshees, is a Best Picture nominee, always an advantage. Perhaps we will get a clue earlier in the evening if Elvis or The Whale win for Makeup and Hairstyling. I am torn here in trying to read the Academy’s mind-set and actually hoping for a tie.

THE WINNER: Austin Butler, Elvis

BEST ACTRESS

(L-R) Cate Blanchett, Ana De Armas, Andrea Riseborough, Michelle Williams, Michelle Yeoh
(L-R) Cate Blanchett, Ana De Armas, Andrea Riseborough, Michelle Williams, Michelle Yeoh

There were not enough slots to accommodate the great performances by female actors this year. The real shocker in the category was undoubtedly the nomination of Andrea Riseborough for the tiny indie To Leslie, with a worldwide box office gross of $27,000 and change. A controversial last-minute campaign, largely on a grassroots level by her fellow actors, some very high profile, did the trick. But can she actually win? That is a tall order, and with the publicity being more about the campaign than the richly deserving performance, the answer is probably not. Going for a third Oscar, Cate Blanchett has been the front-runner all season long. Her win at the BAFTAs re-confirmed that there doesn’t appear to be anyone who can catch her, that is until Yeoh bested her at both SAG and the Spirits — two late-breaking awards shows that both went for record-breaking sweeps for Yeoh’s Everything Everywhere All at Once. That makes her the most fierce competition for Blanchett; she also took the Globe for Comedy/Musical when Blanchett won for Drama.

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Yeoh is beloved, and her film is popular after sweeping the guilds, especially SAG, and that may well be enough to sweep her to an Oscar victory. The betting odds still would favor the great Cate, however, in a once-in-a-lifetime role even for her.

THE WINNER:  Cate Blanchett, Tár

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

(L-R) Brendan Gleeson, Brian Tyree Henry, Judd Hirsch, Barry Keoghan and Ke Huy Quan
(L-R) Brendan Gleeson, Brian Tyree Henry, Judd Hirsch, Barry Keoghan and Ke Huy Quan

The double nominations for The Banshees of Inisherin for both Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan will likely cancel them out, an even greater likelihood at the Oscars after Keoghan, with far less screen time, defeated Gleeson at the BAFTAs. Don’t expect a repeat of that. And despite his advanced age, don’t expect a win for Judd Hirsch, already an Oscar record-setter in terms of the longest span between his first nomination in 1980 and his second in 2022 for his extended cameo in The Fabelmans. And despite being one of only two Black acting contenders this year, don’t expect Brian Tyree Henry, brilliant as he was, to cash in Causeway’s single nomination.

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Running the table among critics’ groups, the Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, Indie Spirits, etc., and with only a temporary wrinkle at BAFTA where his streak ended, expect the endearing and deserving Ke Huy Quan to be called to the Dolby Theatre stage.

THE WINNER:  Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

(L-R) Angela Bassett, Hong Chau, Kerry Condon, Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu
(L-R) Angela Bassett, Hong Chau, Kerry Condon, Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu

As with Gleeson and Keoghan, with a double nomination act for Everything Everywhere’s Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu it could be logical to expect them to cancel each other out. But if they don’t it would likely be veteran Curtis, a member of Hollywood royalty, who would benefit. Proof positive evidence of this was offered at SAG where she won, and gave a great acceptance speech; it is not difficult to be rooting for her. I was thrilled to see Hong Chau finally nominated after being egregiously overlooked for Downsizing a few years back. Her work as the caregiver in The Whale was exceptional, and she was a hoot in the widely seen The Menu this year, too, but the nomination may be the win. BAFTA winner Kerry Condon played the home-field advantage there for The Banshees of Inisherin but seems unlikely to do the same at the Oscars, making her a dark horse, or should I say dark donkey, in this race, but if Banshees has more innate popularity within the Academy her superb performance may be the spoiler for the two vets favored right now.

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That of course includes Globes and Critics Choice winner Angela Bassett, who appeared before losing at both BAFTA and SAG to be on track to be rewarded for her stellar career and to become the first actor to win for a Marvel movie. It may be that Marvel connection that is holding her back, but just in time for voting Disney really ramped up the TV campaign on her behalf. Another tough call, but being in a popular Best Picture behemoth seems to favor Curtis right now.

THE WINNER: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST DIRECTOR

A24
Co-directors Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert on the set of ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’

If you go by historical odds, the winners here would have to be The Daniels, Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan, who hit pay dirt with their little indie that could Everything Everywhere All at Once. Their win at Critics Choice was a mere preview of what would come. The big get was taking the DGA’s top directorial prize over that guild’s god, Steven Spielberg, and fellow Oscar nominees Todd Field and Martin McDonagh. Only eight times in the DGA’s previous 74-year awards history has its winner not gone on to Oscar glory. It looks set up to continue that impressive track record. I think only Spielberg, in making his most personal film ever about his family origins, could derail the path for The Daniels, who would become only the third pair of directors to share the award after the Coens for No Country for Old Men, and Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for 1961’s West Side Story. Sentiment for the two-time winner here could tip it to Spielberg, but that DGA recognition tells me otherwise.

THE WINNER:  Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

All Quiet on the Western Front
Felix Kammerer in ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’

The shocker here was that the presumed favorite, Claudio Miranda for Top Gun: Maverick, was not even nominated. That leaves us with a more even playing field, but even though the category boasts Roger Deakins, the icon of the field, nominated for the umpteenth time with the single nomination for Empire of Light, individual names don’t appear on the ballot. That also won’t help Elvis’ Mandy Walker, only the third female nominee ever, but as voting was going on last weekend lo and behold she became the first woman ever to win at ASC, gaining a nice boost with two days left to cast ballots. However, she wasn’t competing there against All Quiet on the Western Front, and I suspect that gritty WWI film, already a BAFTA winner for James Friend’s poetic and stunning photography of the horrors of war, might still have the edge here.

THE WINNER: James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM

All Quiet on the Western Front
(L-R) Felix Kammerer and Albrecht Schuch in ‘All Quiet On the Western Front’

Take this one to the bank. There is only one film here holding all the aces, but overall it is an excellent group of nominees. The moving Belgian entry Close is as deserving of a win here as any foreign-language film this year. There is also 84-year-old Polish film veteran Jerzy Skolimowski’s EO, which like Close was a major prize winner at Cannes, and is a wonderful tale of humanity as seen from the POV of a donkey. Ireland’s first-ever nomination comes from the lovely The Quiet Girl, while Argentina is in the mix with the politically charged Golden Globe-winning Argentina, 1985. The category is rife with possible upsets, but how do you beat a German war film nominated in eight other categories including Best Picture? You don’t.

THE WINNER: Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Fire of Love
Volcanologists Maurice and Katia Krafft in ‘Fire of Love’

For my money, the five-time Critics Choice winner Good Night Oppy should have run away with this category. It didn’t even make the longlist, which makes me wonder what is wrong with the documentary branch. Nevertheless, I am stuck with what made the cut and in analyzing it, and the race could go one of many ways. There is the much-acclaimed All That Breathes, which dazzled doc groups this year. There is also the timely PGA- and BAFTA-winning Navalny, which benefits from timeliness as it focuses on Vladimir Putin’s courageous critic and Russian political prisoner Alexei Navalny. There is also past winner Laura Poitras’ Venice Film Festival Golden Lion winner All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, but some may find it to be two different movies in one, which could hurt its chances. A House Made of Splinters was the surprise entry here, but voters likely had to scramble to watch it. That leaves Fire of Love, Nat Geo’s magnificent love story like no other, about a relationship forged in the fierce world of volcanology and two people dedicated to each other and to their mutual pursuit of the world’s most dangerous volcanoes. It’s a winner, no matter how you look at it, and already just revealed to become a theatrical narrative film as well. A great story is a great story.

THE WINNER: Fire of Love

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Pinocchio
‘Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio’

Pixar is in the race, and whenever that happens, watch out. Except this year. In line with a handful of Asian films and nominees across multiple categories in this lineup, Pixar has the well-regarded Turning Red, which Disney mistakenly sent straight to streaming. It has little chance. DreamWorks Animation is back in the race with a hugely successful box office hit Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, that might have won in any other year. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On seemed to pick up the lion’s share of critics’ awards in the category, but isn’t it really just as much live-action as animation? Cute, but too much of a hybrid to win here. Netflix has two entries, including the beautiful The Sea Beast, which richly deserves to be here with stablemate Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, the BAFTA, Critics Choice, Globes, Annie, PGA and VES winner. That will win, and not just because its beloved creator has his name in the title.

THE WINNER: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

BEST FILM EDITING

Top Gun: Maverick
Tom Cruise in Top Gun: Maverick’

Although not 100% foolproof anymore, this is a key category in which to be nominated if you want to win Best Picture. Nevertheless, it was a little shocking that neither All Quiet on the Western Front nor Avatar: The Way of Water nor The Fabelmans made the cut. Elvis could actually be formidable here, but I think it comes down to either BAFTA, Indie Spirits and ACE Eddie comedy film winner Paul Rogers for Everything Everywhere All at Once or ACE Eddie drama film winner Top Gun: Maverick. The former just screams editing, a dizzying multiverse romp that hardly slows down to breathe. The latter is simply dazzling, both in the sky and on the ground, with Eddie Hamilton’s superlative work. If it can only win one Oscar, it seems this would be the one for Maverick, unless EEAAO sweeps everything everywhere aside.

THE WINNER: Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

(L-R) N.T. Rama Rao Jr and Ram Charan perform the “Naatu Naatu” dance in ‘RRR’
(L-R) N.T. Rama Rao Jr and Ram Charan perform the “Naatu Naatu” dance in ‘RRR’

Three musical icons, a Bollywood phenomenon, and a 14-time losing nominee. OK, so look, the Academy got so sick of Diane Warren always being a bridesmaid that they gave her an Honorary Oscar in November. I think that makes it unlikely she will finally break her winless streak in this category with a song from a documentary no one has heard of, and which doesn’t have a single review on Rotten Tomatoes. This is despite Warren being widely admired as a true songwriter on her own, rather than a superstar singer collaborating with others to grab the gold.

RELATED: Oscar Best Song Nominees – Watch The Music Videos

For instance, Rihanna enlisted Tems, plus Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s composer, plus the film’s director, to help with her stirring anthem “Lift Me Up,” which is not to be confused with a past winner in this category, Lady Gaga, who returns with Top Gun: Maverick’s equally stirring “Hold My Hand.” Both are the type of songs that win here. Past winner 35 years ago David Byrne and his collaborators are in it too for “This Is A Life” from EEAAO, but I couldn’t hum it if you put a gun to my head. The dance-themed and lively “Naatu Naatu” from Indian sensation RRR isn’t a great song, but it made for a scene-stealing dance sequence and took Globes and Critics Choice awards. That may be enough. The question is if the older-skewing AMPAS voters even saw the film.

THE WINNER: “Naatu Naatu,” RRR

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

All Quiet on the Western Front
(L-R) Albrecht Schuch and Felix Kammerer in ‘All Quiet on the Western Front’

For my money, two-time winner Alexandre Desplat’s wonderful score for Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio is the hands-down winner, perhaps the French composer’s best work. Oh, wait. It wasn’t even nominated. So who gets it now? The BAFTA went to Volker Bertelmann’s All Quiet on the Western Front, and indeed the score helped make that movie the powerhouse it was. Son Lux’s strong musical work for Everything Everywhere All at Once fit the action to a tee. Carter Burwell’s The Banshees of Inisherin was lyrically Irish where it was needed and another high mark for the composer who has worked with the Coens and Martin McDonagh multiple times. Past La La Land double winner Justin Hurwitz has created what seems to be the most musical of the nominees with Babylon, and that may count for something. Ninety-year-old five-time winner and 53-time nominee John Williams could have the sentimental vote for another fine score for The Fabelmans. If it is a wash between the latter two, look for Bertelmann on the outside.

THE WINNER: Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick
‘Top Gun: Maverick’

War films and musicals always have the edge in this category, which was until recently was split into mixing and sound effects but now is combined after the same film seemed to win both categories year after year. All these nominees make sense, with Elvis on the musical side and All Quiet on the Western Front getting the war vote. In between, we have box office behemoths with familiar titles like Batman, Top Gun and Avatar. Though Elvis’ sound work may not be as obvious, it could be a tiebreaker between the top two most likely winners: AQOTWF and Cinema Audio Society champ Top Gun: Maverick. The former took the BAFTA for being anything but “all quiet” and was superb. But how do you deny the year’s most successful movie an Oscar for one of the key reasons it was so successful? My only concern is that the original Top Gun did not win in this category, but that was 36 years ago, so…

THE WINNER: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

All Quiet on the Western Front
‘All Quiet on the Western Front’

Of the two screenplay categories this year, this is the one with the fewest strong competitors, but it is also the hardest to call. The BAFTA went to All Quiet on the Western Front, adapted from the classic Erich Maria Remarque antiwar novel with echoes of the original 1930 Best Picture Oscar winner. Telling the story for the first time from the German perspective, plus its amazing timeliness, could land it a win. It was ineligible for the WGA, though, so we won’t be able to count on that for clues. WGA deservedly landed in Sarah Polley’s lap for the great Best Picture nominee Women Talking. That could boost her momentum just as Oscar voting was going on, and she took the prestigious USC Scripter award last weekend as well. It may be between those two, though the category features Living, a remake of the 1952 Akira Kurosawa classic Ikiru by Nobel Prize winner Kazuo Ishiguro, which may be too little seen by the Academy at large. Top Gun: Maverick shows what brilliance it takes to come back 36 years later and make a bigger splash than the first time. Rian Johnson is also back for his second writing nomination for a Knives Out mystery, this one Glass Onion, but, clever as it is it is a longer shot. I am rooting for Polley as a way to honor her wonderful movie, but WWI may be too much to overcome.

THE WINNER: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Everything Everywhere All at Once
(L-R) Stephanie Hsu, Ke Huy Quan, Michelle Yeoh and James Hong in ‘Everything Everywhere All at Once’

A terrific category where each of the five are deserving in their own right. Although Martin McDonagh won an Oscar for a live-action short a few years ago, he seems ripe to claim his first win for a feature but still hasn’t. With Globe and BAFTA wins, is this his year for The Banshees of Inisherin? If anything is going to stand out, it is his quirky, wonderful writing, which wasn’t helped by WGA since it was ineligible there. Palme d’Or winner Triangle of Sadness certainly has its fans, me being one of them, but the competition here is too strong. Todd Field’s first produced feature script in 16 years with Tár is formidable, so is Steven Spielberg’s first nominated script (with Tony Kushner) for The Fabelmans. If the winner is not Banshees, then it is bound to be The Daniels — Scheinert and Kwan — for Everything Everywhere All at Once, which could be the most “original” nominee of the bunch. That may be the reason voters gravitate toward it here more than any other category in which it is nominated. Its WGA win won’t hurt at all happening just as Oscar balloting was progressing.

THE WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Babylon
Margot Robbie in ‘Babylon’

If there is to be a sweep, All Quiet on the Western Front could win here, but the race is really between Elvis and Babylon for their wide-ranging re-creations of time and place in show business history. Elvis had all of its locations from the Deep South to Hollywood to Las Vegas re-created for its shoot in Australia, but you would never know it. Baz Luhrmann’s films have won in this category twice, and there is no reason there won’t be a threepeat for the director whose wife, Catherine Martin, seems to have that magic Oscar touch when it comes to costumes and production design. Except she is going up against first-time nominee Florencia Martin, who with her collaborator Anthony Carlino, has taken Damien Chazelle’s Hollywood circa 1920s to dazzling heights. This won at the Art Directors Guild and at BAFTA, so looking good.

THE WINNER: Babylon

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR STYLING

The Whale
Brendan Fraser in ‘The Whale’

Turning Brendan Fraser into a 600-pound man, while still making it possible for him to deliver a heartfelt and genuinely human performance without the prosthetics and makeup work getting in the way, has made The Whale the generally agreed upon favorite here. It’s not invincible though, and it will likely find some stiff competition from Elvis and the remarkable team who helped Austin Butler bring The King to life in a way no Elvis impersonator ever could. That film won the BAFTA, and like The Whale, it found some love in multi-categories from the Make-up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild itself. If voters are looking for an alternative, I suppose it could be the transformation of Colin Farrell into The Penguin for The Batman, but don’t lose your office pool going down that road.

THE WINNER: The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avatar: The Way of the Water
Avatar: The Way of the Water

If ever there was a category with a strong favorite almost certain to win it, it is this one with James Cameron’s monumental Avatar: The Way of Water, which swept the VES Awards and won the BAFTA. It is almost unbeatable unless somehow All Quiet on the Western Front stages some sort of old-fashioned Oscar sweep, but I doubt that. Also deserving but won’t win here is Top Gun: Maverick, meaning can anything beat this new Avatar and prevent it from following in the footsteps of the old Avatar? Uh, that would be a no.

THE WINNER: Avatar: The Way of Water

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Austin Butler Elvis
Austin Butler in ‘Elvis’

If I had a vote here, it would go to multiple Oscar winner Jenny Beavan’s delightful work on Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, a movie in which the costumes truly share co-star credit with Lesley Manville. If it was the Costume Designers Branch itself and not the entire Academy voting in the finals, I would say this win is a walk, even if it is the least-seen film of the nominees. I am unsure why Everything Everywhere All at Once landed here, and I would be stunned to see it win. Babylon is rich and certainly deserving, as is perennial winner Catherine Martin’s BAFTA-winning Elvis. The smart money seems to be on Ruth Carter’s excellent work on Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, an Oscar winner previously for the original Black Panther. I wonder if voters will think they have already rewarded this franchise and look elsewhere.

THE WINNER: Catherine Martin, Elvis

SHORTS

Mac McKinney, subject of 'Stranger at the Gate'
Mac McKinney, subject of ‘Stranger at the Gate’

I combine these last three categories for short films because collectively these are the categories that can be deal-breakers in your office pool. The Documentary Short category is divided by two entries from Netflix — The Elephant Whisperers and The Martha Mitchell Effect — and two from The New Yorker Studios — Haulout and Stranger at the Gate — the latter of which counts Malala Yousafzai as an executive producer. The final nominee may be the most accessible and novel of the bunch and the most indie, How Do You Measure a Year? It is a simple father-daughter story in which a father annually filmed his daughter on her birthday from age 2 to 18, asking the questions of life. Having talked to some voters who have seen these, this one could be the sleeper winner, though all have their proponents to be sure. I have a feeling Malala’s visible presence this season might help her film.

THE WINNER: Stranger at the Gate

The Boy, the Fox, the Mole and the Horse
‘The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse’

For Animated Short, if voters were looking to award their choice on title alone, it would be a battle between My Year of Dicks and An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It. Also, you can never discount the venerable National Film Board of Canada, which has been responsible for many Oscar winners over the decades and this year is repped by The Flying Sailor. Ice Merchants is also in the mix, but I think the winner has to be The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, which won the BAFTA and at the Annies in their corresponding category. Based on the bestselling global book sensation by Charlie Mackesy, it is a gorgeously animated tale that is well-nigh irresistible.

THE WINNER: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Le Pupille
‘Le Pupille’

Finally, The New Yorker Studios’ Night Ride and Cynefilms’ The Red Suitcase are among the better-known nominees for Live Action Short. Ivalu, which has a robust publicity campaign, is also spreading the word, along with BAFTA winner An Irish Goodbye. But from Cannes to Telluride and many other festivals, I have to think the front-runner is the charming Le Pupille, at least at this point. It comes from acclaimed Italian filmmaker Alice Rohrwacher, five-time Oscar winner Alfonso Cuarón and Disney+ in a delightful musical Christmastime story of a group of orphans left behind at their school over the holidays. It is a charmer. But beware of The Red Suitcase, which could still be a spoiler depending on how many turn out to vote in this category.

THE WINNER: Le Pupille

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