Paths, projections for Cincinnati Bearcats, Xavier Musketeers in March
With Selection Sunday just a month away on St. Patrick's Day, The Enquirer takes another look at the postseason scenarios for the Cincinnati Bearcats and Xavier Musketeers.
Again, both squads have a lot of work in front of them. The Bearcats just dropped consecutive home games to a pair of Top 10 teams with swarming defenses, Houston and Iowa State. Xavier is coming off its own two-game losing streak, falling to No. 19 Creighton at Cintas Center and unranked Seton Hall on the road.
UC basketball What we learned from Cincinnati's Big 12 loss to No. 10 Iowa State
Here's a look at where tournament prospects stand for Wes Miller's Bearcats and Sean Miller's Musketeers:
Cincinnati Bearcats
Last season, UC had a single Quadrant 1 win which came on the road in a buzzer-beater against UCF. That was while playing an American Athletic Conference schedule. The Bearcats were bypassed and eventually finished with an NCAA NET ranking of 70 and a 23-13 record after being ousted in the quarterfinals of the NIT.
This season, entering Saturday's game at UCF, the Bearcats are 2-6 in Quad 1 games, 2-2 in Quad 2, 3-1 in Quad 3 and 8-0 in Quad 4. The NET and KenPom.com both put them at No. 36 meaning statically they're among the top 68 teams.
Best way in?
The Big 12 tournament is March 12-16 in Kansas City. If they can't get a Top 10 seed, all the Bearcats would have to do is win five games in five days in what many say is the best league in basketball. Heading into Saturday, UC, UCF, West Virginia and Oklahoma State would be seeds Nos. 11-14.
Even if the Bearcats catapult to the Top 10, they would have to play four games in four days. The top two seeds, first place Houston and Iowa State as of this writing, would have to win only three games to win the tournament.
What bracketologists say
Entering this week, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi had UC among the first four out in his calculations. Keep in mind, automatic bids of weaker leagues and Power Five/Group of Five tournament upsets affect who cheers, who looks to host an NIT game or who calls it a season.
Jerry Palm at CBS Sports also puts UC in the first four out with nine other Big 12 teams in the field, same as Lunardi.
Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports puts the Bearcats among the last four in making them the 10th of the Big 12 teams to qualify.
Realistic road
If you take your C-Paw hat off, it would be fair to says that UC would be favored in three, possibly four of their seven remaining games. They are 15-9 (4-7 Big 12).
At UCF: Possibly favored, but probably not.
Oklahoma State: Should be favored but the Cowboys do have two conference wins.
At TCU: Probably not favored, though UC did beat them when they were No. 19 in Cincinnati.
At Houston: Not favored because Houston has won the last 10 between the teams.
Kansas State: Should be favored since it's home, but the Wildcats have five conference wins.
At Oklahoma: UC had them beat here, but lost. They won't be favored in Norman.
West Virginia: Should be favored as it's Senior Day and quite frankly they owe them one.
On the lower end UC, if playing to its potential, could wind up 18-13 and 7-11 in the Big 12. Optimistically, they would have to win a game they weren't favored in to reach 19 or 20 wins or get near .500 in the league.
Projection
Due to the recent inconsistency, 18 overall wins and 7-11 in the league seems more likely. There is a precedent in making the tournament with a 7-11 Big 12 mark though as that's where West Virginia finished last season earning a No. 9 seed. However, that Bob Huggins team had six Quad 1 wins. UC would have to find some Quad 1 wins in the remaining menu as they come into this weekend's play with just two.
Should the Bearcats find a way to finish the last seven 5-2, a 9-9 Big 12 record would surely secure a bid. In all likelihood that would involve UC snaring at least three of the four upcoming road games.
Xavier Musketeers
This time last year, Xavier was coming off back-to-back Big East losses by a combined three points to Butler and Marquette on the road. By then, however, Xavier was No. 16 in the AP poll and had already racked up an impressive NCAA Tournament resume that included a regular-season sweep of the eventual national-champion UConn Huskies.
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Fast forward a year and this year's Xavier club has work to do. The Musketeers are 2-8 in Quad 1 games (wins over St. Mary's in Las Vegas and at Providence), 5-1 mark in Quad 2 games, 1-2 in Quad 3 contests and 5-0 in Quad 4. Xavier fell to No. 45 in KenPom and No. 57 in the NET following Wednesday's setback to Seton Hall.
Best way in?
You don't need a magnifying glass to notice a three-team log jam in the middle of the Big East standings. Xavier (13-12, 7-7 Big East) is part of a three-way tie for the No. 5 spot in the conference, a coveted position given that the top-5 teams in the conference are granted first-round byes in the Big East Tournament in Madison Square Garden next month.
The good news? Xavier has already beaten the two teams they are tied with: Butler (16-9, 7-7) and Providence (16-9, 7-7). The bad news? Both the Bulldogs and Friars have two more Quad 1 victories than the Musketeers. Xavier still has a shot at each of those teams when Providence visits Cintas Center Feb. 21 and Xavier travels to Hinkle Fieldhouse March 6. Both matchups will carry weight in a battle for the fifth spot, but it's fair to say it's not just a three-team race with Villanova (6-7 in Big East) and St. John's (6-8) within striking distance.
Even if Xavier were to get a first-round bye in Manhattan, they'd have to run the table in a field that includes the top-4 teams in the conference that have separated themselves from the pack. Xavier is a combined 1-5 against No. 1 UConn, No. 17 Creighton and Seton Hall and has yet to play No. 4 Marquette.
What bracketologists say?
After beating Villanova, Xavier had climbed to the "Last Four Out" spot in ESPN's Bracketology. That's the best position they've been in this year, but it was quickly followed up with back-to-back losses. Joe Lunardi now has the Musketeers missing the tournament and has four Big East schools (Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova and Providence) higher on the bubble, but also missing March Madness. Lunardi has Butler as one of the last four teams to receive an at-large bid.
Palm (CBS Sports) and DeCourcy (Fox Sports) each have Xavier missing the tournament.
Realistic road
Using the projected final scores from KenPom, Xavier should be a favorite in three of its final six games. Of the three underdog matchups remaining, two are against the No. 4 Golden Eagles, who Xavier will play twice in a 13-day span starting Feb. 25 at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. Xavier has just a 20% chance of beating Marquette on the road, according to KenPom, its lowest winning percentage of any game remaining. Xavier is a projected short underdog in its final two regular-season games at Butler and at home against Marquette.
vs. Providence (KenPom's final score): Xavier 73, Providence 69
at Marquette: Marquette 80, Xavier 71
vs. DePaul: Xavier 85, DePaul 63
at Georgetown: Xavier 82, Georgetown 73
at Butler: Butler 79, Xavier 75
vs. Marquette: Marquette 77, Xavier 75
The Musketeers are projected to finish the regular season 16-15 and 10-10 in conference play. Does that get you to a top-5 seed in the Big East Tournament? Well, that's why they play the games. Every team in the middle of the Big East standings has struggled to stay consistent. If those projections hold, Xavier wouldn't add to its Quad 1 win count, the Musketeers desperately need to pull out an outright win as an underdog or two.
Projection
Xavier has struggled with consistency. It's expected for a team with 10 new players and only one returner from a Sweet 16 run. But the Musketeers, by hook or by crook, are in the conversation for an NCAA Tournament berth, something that seemed highly unlikely if you rewind to non-conference play, when Xavier suffered two Quad 3 losses (Delaware, Oakland) in an eight-day stretch.
Xavier's not an NCAA Tournament team right now and would have to pull off some quality wins after its off weekend. There's no way of knowing how the final half-dozen games will shake out, but a fair prediction right now is to say Xavier would need to surprise some teams in the Big East Tournament to get a ticket to the dance.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Updating March Madness hopes for Cincinnati Bearcats, Xavier Muskies
