Panthers trade deadline primer: Buy or sell? Either way, eyes are on future for Florida
The Florida Panthers are in an uneasy place ahead of the NHL’s Friday trade deadline.
They have spent most of the year in the nether region between clear-cut contention and outright irrelevance, sitting on the outside of the postseason picture, but quite close enough to a playoff spot to truly believe any series of moves would truly guarantee they can contend for a Stanley Cup.
It’s the most challenging position a team can be in this time of year. To buy or to sell, that is the question and the unsatisfying answer probably lies somewhere in the middle: The most likely course of action is to do nothing or something close to it.
“It’s a heavy, heavy arms race,” coach Paul Maurice said and Florida has been sitting it out.
The last month or so has been a wild one on the NHL trade market. Since the last week of January, the New York Islanders have gotten All-Star center Bo Horvat from the Vancouver Canucks, the New York Rangers have traded for star right wings Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane, the New Jersey Devils have added star winger Timo Meier from the San Jose Sharks and 12 first-round picks have been dealt.
More than two dozen trades have been made in the last week alone, and Florida hasn’t been involved in one since the calendar flipped to 2023. The biggest available stars have already found new homes and the Panthers, because of their place in the standings and just because they don’t have a lot to trade, have had to wait it all out.
All the waiting didn’t yield much more clarity. With less than 24 hours until the 3 p.m. deadline, Florida was still sitting three points out of postseason position and behind four other wild card contenders, in terms of points percentage. Even though FiveThirtyEight pegs them as the favorite to get the second wild card, the Panthers’ reward would be a first-round series against the league-best Boston Bruins and something like a 5 percent chance to win the Cup.
Simply put: It wouldn’t be smart for Florida to give up anything for rentals like it did last year, and the Panthers don’t have an enticing option that makes sense. They don’t own their own first-round NHL Draft pick until 2026 because of their trades last year for forward defenseman Ben Chiarot and right wings Claude Giroux and Matthew Tkachuk; they don’t have a single top-40 prospect, according to TheHockeyWriters.com’s midseason rankings; they don’t want to give up under-25 contributors such as forwards Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen, or defenseman Josh Mahura, who are all under multiple seasons of team control and then still only become restricted free agents at the end of their current deals.
Florida’s most attractive trade chips, aside from current contributors, are prospect Mackie Samoskevich, second-round picks in 2023 and 2025 and third-round picks in 2024 and 2025.
It’s all a far cry from last season. A year ago, the Panthers traded two future first-round picks, as well a multiple prospects, to get seven-time All-Star Giroux from the Philadelphia Flyers and Chiarot from the Montreal Canadiens, loading up for an ill-fated run at the Stanley Cup. Ultimately, those two did nothing more than contribute to a second-round run in the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs — still, to be fair, Florida’s deepest since it reached the 1996 Stanley Cup Finals — and then left in free agency, leaving the Panthers’ war chest mostly bare without much to show for it.
Will Panthers sell at deadline?
It leaves selling as basically the only possible track for Florida, at least under this binary way of thinking. Realistically, the Panthers are not going to win the Cup this year and are still more likely to miss the Stanley Cup playoffs than make them, and there is a case to be made to sell.
Florida, however, insists it won’t and it’s fair place to land, too. This isn’t the NBA: No. 8 seeds do occasionally go on deep runs and the Panthers, with their top-end talent, still believe they can test anyone in a seven-game series. There is value in just making the Cup playoffs and taking as many swings as possible.
Still, the way an inflated market is valuing middle-six forwards and middle-pairing defensemen could make some of Florida’s players particularly valuable. Other teams have inquired about centers Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart and defenseman Radko Gudas, according to various reports, and moving any of the three would help the Panthers recoup some long-term assets.
Bennett and Reinhart would certainly fetch at least first-round picks, but Florida has them locked up until at least 2024 and expects to again be contending for Cups by then. Gudas, who’s in the final year of his contract, could possibly fetch a second-round pick, although the Panthers value has contributions and might try to bring him back next year on a more team-friendly deal.
Florida is projected to have more than $11 million in cap space to work with in the offseason.
What makes sense for Panthers?
No matter what the Panthers decide to do, the eyes will be on the near future.
No matter how this season ends, they expect to be a Cup contender in 2024 and for close to a decade to come. Tkachuk and All-Star center Aleksander Barkov are both in their prime, and locked up until 2030. Florida’s window is now. Even if this year is amounting to be a missed opportunity, it won’t change the organization’s expectations for the rest of the decade. It makes it unlikely the Panthers aggressively sell, especially since they have a real shot to make the playoffs this year and don’t own their first-round pick.
As for additions, Florida is treating left wing Anthony Duclair, who made his season debut last Friday after offseason surgery to repair his left Achilles tendon, like he’s a trade-deadline pickup. The impending returns of Barkov and Bennett — both could be back Saturday — will provide another boost for the final month-plus, although they’ve both played most of the year.
Said Maurice: “This is a really good trade day.”
