Final Oscars Predictions: Best Visual Effects – Marvel, Monsters and a 43 Year James Bond Drought Encapsulate The Race
Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.
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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
UPDATED: Feb 6, 2022
AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: Marvel Studios’ “Black Widow,” “Eternals” and “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” probably have the goods to all get in together, but none of them were nominated at the BAFTA Awards nominations.
Instead, they chose the presumed frontrunner “Dune” (Warner Bros), along with “Free Guy” (20th Century Studios), “Ghostbusters: Afterlife” (Sony Pictures), “The Matrix Resurrections” (Warner Bros) and “No Time to Die” (MGM/United Artists Releasing).
“Spider-Man: No Way Home” was not screened in time for BAFTA to consider, and many feel the Sony/Marvel hybrid should be able to sneak into the lineup, especially with its enormous box office haul. Sony has also mounted a robust eleventh-hour campaign to get the web-slinging film into best picture, so this category, as well as best sound, should be entirely on the table.
BAFTA and Oscars had a 4/5 overlap last year, replacing “Greyhound” with “Love and Monsters.” Since they expanded to a guaranteed five nominees in 2010, they’ve only matched once – in 2019 with “1917,” “Avengers: Endgame,” “The Irishman,” “The Lion King” and “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker.” Overall, they average about a 3/5 typically.
So which two of the BAFTA hauls are vulnerable?
My gut says it’s “Free Guy” and “The Matrix Resurrections,” but no strong indicators on what’s really “safe.” Only “Dune” seems like a “lock,” but anything can happen with only 10 films in the running. Personally, there’s so much to celebrate with what “Free Guy” achieves with its creations and innovative techniques. Also, being likable goes a long way showcased by the artisans dressing up in the Ryan Reynolds uniform for the Academy presentation during voting.
So which ones are getting in?
My methodology over the years, when it comes to artisan categories, if it sticks out and doesn’t look like anything else, it’s probably getting in (i.e., “Hereafter,” “Real Steel” and “Kong: Skull Island”). That doesn’t always work out with the animated feature “Soul” and documentary “Welcome to Chechnya” missing out last year.
The predecessor for “Godzilla vs. Kong” made it the last time, and until proven otherwise, I’ll stick with it.
“No Time to Die” would be the first James Bond film in 43 years to be nominated in the VFX category since “Moonraker” (1979). The only Bond film to win in this category was “Thunderball” (1965). Can the Daniel Craig final outing bring it back to his branch? I’d say so.
Oscar voting closed on Feb. 1. My final predictions column is here, with full rankings and commentary being updated before nominations.
Precursor Awards Leader: “Dune” (Warner Bros)
Awards Season Calendar
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Visual Effects)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most significant Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. The magnificent Dennis Muren has a stellar 6 Oscars in this category which include “The Abyss,” “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” and “Jurassic Park.” He also 2 Special Achievement Oscars for “The Empire Strikes Back” and “Return of the Jedi” of the “Star Wars” series. Gordon Jennings and Ken Ralston have five wins each.
2022 Academy Awards Predictions
2021 Oscars predictions are here.
About the Academy Awards (Oscars)
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022
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