Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actress – Is Jodie Foster Looking For a Third Oscar?

Clayton Davis

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

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DRAFT>>>PRE SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON

2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

UPDATED: Mar. 4, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: The win for Jodie Foster at the Golden Globes for “The Mauritanian” was just the boost she needed at this moment, likely getting many more voters to watch the film before voting. With her moving up, there’s some movements as Maria Bakalova may not be the sure thing we thought for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm,” even with the film winning best picture (comedy). Her loss to Rosamund Pike (“I Care A Lot”), who still doesn’t seem to making headway in spite of the GG, may give her a disadvantage in this last push. Helena Zengel (“News of the World”) is also holding on and I’m still not certain that the two women that have showed at Globes, SAG and Critics Choice are necessary a “certainty” for nominations (Glenn Close and Olivia Colman). This may be one of those messy years for the category but I’ll say, Yuh-Jung Youn is looking strong right about now, especially as she looks to take CC this weekend.

WATCH RECOMMENDATIONS BEFORE VOTING: Dominique Fishback (“Judas and the Black Messiah”), Swankie (“Nomadland”), Jayme Lawson (“Farewell Amor”), Ariana DeBose (“The Prom”), Ellen Burstyn (“Pieces of a Woman”), Olivia Cooke (“Sound of Metal”), Priyanka Chopra Jonas (“The White Tiger”)

PRECURSORS LEADER:
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” (A24)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. Yuh-Jung Youn
    "Minari" (A24)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Soonja
    –
    DIRECTOR: Lee Isaac Chung
    SYNOPSIS: A Korean family moves to Arkansas to start a farm in the 1980s.
    STARRING: Steven Yeun, Yeri Han, Alan S. Kim, Yuh-jung Youn, Will Patton

  2. Olivia Colman
    "The Father" (Sony Pictures Classics)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination, 1 win (2018's "The Favourite" in best actress)
    ROLE: Anne
    –
    DIRECTOR: Florian Zeller
    SYNOPSIS: A man refuses all assistance from his daughter as he ages. As he tries to make sense of his changing circumstances, he begins to doubt his loved ones, his own mind and even the fabric of his reality.
    STARRING: Olivia Colman, Mark Gatiss, Anthony Hopkins, Imogen Poots, Rufus Sewell, Olivia Williams

  3. Glenn Close
    "Hillbilly Elegy" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 7 nominations (most recently for 2018's "The Wife" in best actress)
    ROLE: Mamaw
    –
    DIRECTOR: Ron Howard
    SYNOPSIS: An urgent phone call pulls a Yale Law student back to his Ohio hometown, where he reflects on three generations of family history and his own future.
    STARRING: Amy Adams, Glenn Close, Gabriel Basso, Haley Bennett, Freida Pinto, Bo Hopkins, Owen Asztalos

  4. Jodie Foster
    "The Mauritanian" (STXfilms)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 4 nominations, 2 wins (1988's "The Accused" and 1991's "The Silence of the Lambs" in best actress)
    ROLE: Nancy Hollander
    –
    DIRECTOR: Kevin Macdonald
    SYNOPSIS: A detainee at the U.S military's Guantanamo Bay detention center is held without charges for over a decade and seeks help from a defense attorney for his release.
    STARRING: Tahar Rahim, Jodie Foster, Benedict Cumberbatch, Shailene Woodley

  5. Helena Zengel
    "News of the World" (Universal Pictures)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Johanna Leonberger
    –
    DIRECTOR: Paul Greengrass
    SYNOPSIS: A Civil War veteran agrees to deliver a girl, taken by the Kiowa people years ago, to her aunt and uncle, against her will. They travel hundreds of miles and face grave dangers as they search for a place that either can call home.
    STARRING: Tom Hanks, Helena Zengel, Elizabeth Marvel, Mare Winningham, Michael Angelo Covino, Ray McKinnon

NEXT IN LINE:

  1. Maria Bakalova
    "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" (Amazon Studios)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Tutar Sagdiyev
    –
    DIRECTOR: Jason Woliner
    SYNOPSIS: A satire on Trump’s America that follows a Kazakh journalist who’s sent to America to deliver a gift from his government to Vice President Mike Pence. Along the way, his worldview is turned upside down and steadfast beliefs are challenged by his teenage daughter.
    STARRING: Sacha Baron Cohen, Maria Bakalova

  2. Amanda Seyfried
    "Mank" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Marion Davies
    –
    DIRECTOR: David Fincher
    SYNOPSIS: 1930s Hollywood is re-evaluated through the eyes of scathing social critic and alcoholic screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz as he races to finish the screenplay of Citizen Kane for Orson Welles.
    STARRING: Tom Burke, Lily Collins, Joseph Cross, Charles Dance, Monika Gossman, Ferdinand Kingsley, Jamie McShane, Tuppence Middleton, Toby Leonard Moore, Gary Oldman, Tom Pelphrey, Amanda Seyfried, Sam Troughton

  3. Dominique Fishback
    "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Deborah Johnson
    –
    DIRECTOR: Shaka King
    SYNOPSIS: The story of Fred Hampton, Chairman of the Illinois Black Panther Party, and his fateful betrayal by FBI informant William O'Neal.
    STARRING: Lakeith Stanfield, Daniel Kaluuya, Dominique Fishback, Jesse Plemons, Martin Sheen, Dominique Thorne, Algee Smith, Lil Rel Howery, Jermaine Fowler

  4. Ellen Burstyn
    "Pieces of a Woman" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 6 nominations, 1 win (1974's "Alice Doesn't Live Here Anymore" in best actress)
    ROLE: Elizabeth
    –
    DIRECTOR: Kornél Mundruczó
    SYNOPSIS: When a young mother's home birth ends in unfathomable tragedy, she begins a year-long odyssey of mourning that fractures relationships with loved ones in this deeply personal story of a woman learning to live alongside her loss.
    STARRING: Vanessa Kirby, Shia LaBeouf, Ellen Burstyn, Iliza Shlesinger, Benny Safdie, Sarah Snook, Molly Parker

  5. Saoirse Ronan
    "Ammonite" (Neon)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 4 nominations (most recently for 2019's "Little Women" in best actress)
    ROLE: Charlotte Murchison
    –
    DIRECTOR: Francis Lee
    SYNOPSIS    : 1840s England, acclaimed but overlooked fossil hunter Mary Anning and a young woman sent to convalesce by the sea develop an intense relationship, altering both of their lives forever.
    STARRING    : Kate Winslet, Saoirse Ronan, Fiona Shaw, Gemma Jones, James McArdle

TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. Priyanka Chopra Jonas
    "The White Tiger" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Pinky Madam
    –
    DIRECTOR: Ramin Bahrani
    SYNOPSIS: The epic journey of a poor Indian driver who must use his wit and cunning to break free from servitude to his rich masters and rise to the top of the heap.
    STARRING: Adarsh Gourav, Priyanka Chopra Jonas, Rajkummar Rao, Mahesh Manjrekar

  2. Valerie Mahaffey
    "French Exit" (Sony Pictures Classics)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Mme. Reynard
    –
    DIRECTOR: Azazel Jacobs
    SYNOPSIS: An aging Manhattan socialite living on what's barely left of her inheritance moves to a small apartment in Paris with her son and cat.
    STARRING: Michelle Pfeiffer, Lucas Hedges, Tracy Letts, Valerie Mahaffey, Susan Coyne, Imogen Poots, Danielle Macdonald, Daniel di Tomasso

  3. Olivia Cooke
    "Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Lou
    –
    DIRECTOR: Darius Marder
    SYNOPSIS: A heavy-metal drummer's life is thrown into freefall when he begins to lose his hearing.
    STARRING: Riz Ahmed, Olivia Cooke, Paul Raci, Mathieu Almaric, Lauren Ridloff

  4. Talia Ryder
    "Never Rarely Sometimes Always" (Focus Features)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Skylar
    –
    DIRECTOR: Eliza Hittman
    SYNOPSIS: Faced with an unintended pregnancy and a lack of local support, Autumn and her cousin Skylar embark across state lines from rural Pennsylvania to New York City on a fraught journey of friendship, bravery and compassion.
    STARRING: Sidney Flanigan, Talia Ryder, Théodore Pellerin

  5. Candice Bergen
    "Let Them All Talk" (HBO Max)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination (1979's "Starting Over" in supporting actress)
    ROLE: Roberta
    –
    DIRECTOR: Steven Soderbergh
    SYNOPSIS: A famous author goes on a cruise trip with her friends and nephew in an effort to find fun and happiness while she comes to terms with her troubled past.
    STARRING: Meryl Streep, Candice Bergen, Dianne Wiest, Gemma Chan, Lucas Hedges

  6. Nicole Kidman
    "The Prom" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 4 nominations, 1 win (2002's "The Hours" in best actress)
    ROLE: Angie Dickinson
    –
    DIRECTOR: Ryan Murphy
    SYNOPSIS: A troupe of hilariously self-obsessed theater stars swarm into a small conservative Indiana town in support of a high school girl who wants to take her girlfriend to the prom.
    STARRING: Meryl Streep, Jo Ellen Pellman, James Corden, Nicole Kidman, Ariana DeBose, Kerry Washington, Keegan-Michael Key, Andrew Rannells. Tracey Ullman

  7. Ciara Bravo
    "Cherry" (Apple TV Plus)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Emily
    –
    DIRECTORS: Anthony Russo and Joe Russo
    SYNOPSIS: An Army medic suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder becomes a serial bank robber after an addiction to drugs puts him in debt.
    STARRING: Tom Holland, Ciara Bravo, Kelli Berglund, Thomas Lennon

  8. Swankie
    "Nomadland" (Searchlight Pictures)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Swankie
    –
    DIRECTOR: Chloé Zhao
    SYNOPSIS: After losing everything in the Great Recession, an old woman embarks on a journey through the American West, living as a van-dwelling modern-day nomad.
    STARRING: Frances McDormand, David Strathairn, Linda May, Swankie, Bob Wells

  9. Ariana DeBose
    "The Prom" (Netflix)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Alyssa Greene
    –
    DIRECTOR: Ryan Murphy
    SYNOPSIS: A troupe of hilariously self-obsessed theater stars swarm into a small conservative Indiana town in support of a high school girl who wants to take her girlfriend to the prom.
    STARRING: Meryl Streep, Jo Ellen Pellman, James Corden, Nicole Kidman, Ariana DeBose, Kerry Washington, Keegan-Michael Key, Andrew Rannells. Tracey Ullman

  10. Vanessa Kirby
    "The World to Come" (Bleecker Street)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Tallie
    –
    DIRECTOR: Mona Fastvold
    SYNOPSIS: Somewhere along the mid-19th century American East Coast frontier, two neighboring couples battle hardship and isolation, witnessed by a splendid yet testing landscape, challenging them both physically and psychologically.
    STARRING: Katherine Waterston, Vanessa Kirby, Casey Affleck, Christopher Abbott, Karina Ziana Gherasim

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in the lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Only two women have won this category, Dianne Wiest and Shelly Winters. Thelma Ritter has the most nominations at six while Amy Adams is second with five. The oldest winner ever is Peggy Ashcroft (“A Passage to India”) at 77, while the oldest nominee is Gloria Stuart (“Titanic”) at 87. Tatum O’Neal (“Paper Moon”) is both the youngest nominee and winner in history at 10.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.

About the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.

  • The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.

About the SAG Awards

The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”

  • The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021

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