Oscars 2024 predictions: Look for an ‘Oppenheimer’ to be explosive
It’s finally here.
After an unprecedentedly lengthy actors strike and months of awards season glitz, the 96th Academy Awards will be held in Hollywood and air at 7 p.m. Sunday, March 10, on ABC. Pre-show coverage starts at 5:30 p.m.
Jimmy Kimmel will again host, his fourth time. Hopefully he’ll keep things moving along. But grab some snacks. It’ll still be a long night.
But movie lovers would have it no other way. This is, after all, our “Super Bowl.”
Here are my predictions in major categories:
BEST PICTURE
“American Fiction”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”
There have been upsets here in some recent years (”Moonlight,” “CODA”), but Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer,” the story of American scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer and his role in the development of the atomic bomb, is simply the one to beat. There should be no surprises this year.
My prediction: “Oppenheimer”
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
This is Cooper’s 12th Oscar nomination across lead actor, supporting actor, producing and writing categories (”Nightmare Alley,” “Joker,” “A Star is Born,” “American Sniper,” “American Hustle” and “Silver Linings Playbook”) and he’s magnificent again, completely, effortlessly embodying conductor-composer Leonard Bernstein, but he’s not getting any buzz to win.
Giamatti could be an upset choice here with his second nomination (after supporting for “Cinderella Man”), although it’s still unlikely — even though he is consistently great again as a surly boys’ school teacher.
This is Domingo’s, Wright’s and Murphy’s first nomination, and while Domingo and Wright seem like long shots, Murphy seems destined to win. He’s won almost all the precursor awards. An upset here would be a very huge one.
My prediction: Murphy
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening, “Nyad”
Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
This is Hüller’s first nomination and a rare feat with a foreign-language film.
This is Bening’s fifth nomination (after supporting for “The Grifters” and leading for “American Beauty,” “Being Julia” and “The Kids Are All Right”), and I personally think “Nyad” is the best, most physically demanding performance of her career at age 65 (did you know she was born in Topeka?). But it’s looking like that elusive Oscar win will have to wait.
Mulligan has been nominated twice before (lead actress for “An Education” and “Promising Young Woman” — for which I thought she should have won), and she’s great in “Maestro” but not getting any buzz to win.
So it comes down to Gladstone and Stone, and it’s a very, very close race and the hardest to call of the night.
Stone has been nominated before (supporting for “The Favourite” and “Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)” and won for lead actress for ”La La Land” (she’s also nominated this year for producing “Poor Things”) — and she could very well win lead actress again.
But most signs point to Gladstone for the win. She was the heart of “Killers of the Flower Moon,” and she’s won several of the precursor awards (including the Screen Actors Guild award). If she does win, she’ll be the first Native American actress to win, making history. (Yes)!
My prediction: Gladstone
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
Brown is the only first-time nominee.
De Niro has been nominated five times previously for acting (lead for “Taxi Driver,” “The Deer Hunter,” “Awakenings” and “Cape Fear” and supporting for “Silver Linings Playbook,” with two wins — supporting for “The Godfather Part II” and lead for “Raging Bull”). This is his first nomination since producing 2020’s “The Irishman,” but he’s not expected to win here.
This is Ruffalo’s fourth nomination (after supporting for “The Kids Are Alright,” “Foxcatcher” and “Spotlight”) and he’s great in “Poor Things” but not getting any buzz to win.
And Gosling has been nominated twice before (lead for “Half Nelson” and “La La Land”) and his rare nomination for a comedic performance will just have to be that.
All signs point to previous nominee Downey, Jr. (lead for “Chaplin” and supporting for “Tropic Thunder”) to win. He’s won almost all the precursor awards with a charming sense of humor, and surely his likability will pay off.
My prediction: Downey Jr.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
America Ferrera, “Barbie”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Only Foster has been nominated before (supporting for “Taxi Driver” when she was still a teenager and lead for “Nell” with two lead wins for “The Accused” and “Silence of the Lambs”). This is her first nomination since 1995, and while it’s a wonderful return to form, she’s not getting any buzz to win.
Brooks and Ferrera are enjoying their first nominations, but that’s all it will be.
The one to beat is Randolph (also with her first nomination) with her tender, heart-rending performance as a grieving mother.
My prediction: Randolph
DIRECTING
“Anatomy of a Fall,” Justine Triet
“Killers of the Flower Moon,” Martin Scorsese
“Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things,” Yorgos Lanthimos
“The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer
Triet is only the ninth woman to be nominated for directing, but she’s a long shot here. (She has a better chance of winning for her screenplay, though.)
Glazer received two nominations this year (he’s also nominated for producing “Zone”). But he’s a long shot here, as well.
This is filmmaking vet Scorsese’s 16th nomination across directing, producing and writing categories. But he’s only won once (for directing “The Departed”). “Killers” is a sprawling feat, but I thought it was too long (so did many others), even if it was a story that desperately needed to be told.
Lanthimos enjoys his fifth nomination across producing, writing and directing categories (previously with ”The Lobster” and “The Favourite”). His creativity is staggering, and “Poor Things” is a dizzying creation.
But again, “Oppenheimer” looks to be a sweep, and Nolan —who racks up his eighth nomination this year across writing, producing and directing categories after “Memento,” “Inception” and “Dunkirk” — seems poised to pick up his first directing Oscar. He also seems poised to win another Oscar for producing “Oppenheimer.”
My prediction: Nolan
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Robot Dreams”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
My prediction: “The Boy and the Heron”
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“El Conde”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
My prediction: “Oppenheimer”
COSTUME DESIGN
“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
My prediction: “Barbie”
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
“Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
“The Eternal Memory”
“Four Daughters”
“To Kill a Tiger”
“20 Days in Mariupol”
My prediction: “20 Days in Mariupol”
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
“The ABCs of Book Banning”
“The Barber of Little Rock”
“Island, Between”
“The Last Repair Shop”
“Nai Nai & Wài Pó”
My prediction: “The ABCs of Book Banning”
FILM EDITING
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon” Thelma Schoonmaker
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
My prediction: “Oppenheimer”
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
“Io Capitano,” Italy
“Perfect Days,” Japan
“Society of the Snow,” Spain
“The Teachers’ Lounge,” Germany
“The Zone of Interest,” United Kingdom
My prediction: “The Zone of Interest”
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Golda”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“Society of the Snow”
My prediction: “Maestro”
ORIGINAL SCORE
“American Fiction”
“Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
My prediction: “Oppenheimer”
ORIGINAL SONG
“The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot”
“I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”
“It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)“ from “Killers of the Flower Moon”
“What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
My prediction: “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Barbie”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Napoleon”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
My prediction: “Barbie”
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“Letter to a Pig”
“Ninety-Five Senses”
“Our Uniform”
“Pachyderme”
“WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
My prediction: “WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
“The After”
“Invincible”
“Knight of Fortune”
“Red, White and Blue”
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
My prediction: “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
SOUND
“The Creator”
“Maestro”
“Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Oppenheimer”
“The Zone of Interest”
My prediction: “Oppenheimer”
VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Creator”
“Godzilla Minus One”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
“Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One”
“Napoleon”
My prediction: “Godzilla Minus One”
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“American Fiction,” Cord Jefferson
“Barbie,” Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
“Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things,” Tony McNamara
“The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer
My prediction: “American Fiction”
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Anatomy of a Fall,” Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
“The Holdovers,” David Hemingson
“Maestro,” Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
“May December,” Samy Burch; story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
“Past Lives,” Celine Song
My prediction: “Anatomy of a Fall”
Reach Rod Pocowatchit at rodrick@rawdzilla.com
