One PAC launched a $600K ad in KY race for governor. Many more are on the horizon.

A political action committee (PAC) supporting former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft for Kentucky governor made a big splash this week, launching an ad in a $600,000-plus attack campaign against Attorney General Daniel Cameron’s bid for the same office.

The ad from Commonwealth PAC took Cameron to task for not joining a GOP-led lawsuit against President Joe Biden’s border wall policy. Cameron, who has the support of former Republican president Donald Trump, responded by touting his endorsement and highlighting other ways that he’s challenged Biden.

The PAC has kicked up a storm just one day before the first GOP gubernatorial debate on Tuesday, which Craft opted not to attend. But other PACs have already started to trickle onto the playing field for many other Republican candidates for governor.

Groups that appear to be created to support Cameron, Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles, Somerset Mayor Alan Keck, and Auditor Mike Harmon have also been formed in recent months. The group is running among several candidates seeking the Republican nomination for governor to take on incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear, the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Many of the PACs formed to engage in the 2023 races are unauthorized campaign committees like Commonwealth PAC . Those are groups formed to make independent expenditures in support of or against a candidate and can take unlimited amounts of money. These groups are barred by law from coordinating directly with campaigns.

Why PACs and what’s next?

Aside from the obvious benefits of single donors being able to give more money, one potential use for PACs is to air negative messaging against a candidate. Many candidates appreciate the separation between their own campaign messaging and a PAC’s – that way, they can say that they’re not taking part in a negative political campaign.

“PAC ads are often more negative. Some PACs produce nothing but attack ads whereas campaign ads often focus on making the candidate look good,” Northern Kentucky University political science professor Ryan Salzman said.

During the last closely-contested Republican gubernatorial primary, 2015, two candidates who fell short of former governor Matt Bevin – James Comer and Hal Heiner – saw PACs run attack ads against them throughout the cycle. One of the biggest donors to a PAC supporting Comer was Kelly Craft’s husband, billionaire coal magnate and philanthropist Joe Craft.

For unauthorized campaign committees supporting gubernatorial candidates, the public won’t know who’s funding them until mid-April, well after many will likely start airing or mailing out advertisements. They will have to report their donors and expenses to KREF on the same schedule that candidates do: the first this year is due 30 days before the May 16 election, April 18, and the second is due 15 days before election day.

One drawback to unauthorized campaign committees and other PACs is that they’re generally charged higher rates for advertisements than campaigns themselves, according to veteran Republican politico Tres Watson.

As of early March, Attorney General Daniel Cameron appeared to hold pole position in the GOP primary contest. His campaign released its own poll early in the year that showed him up big over any competitors, including Craft, Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles, Auditor Mike Harmon, Somerset Mayor Alan Keck, and Northern Kentucky businessman Eric Deters. Those numbers were largely backed up by a poll from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy that showed him with 39% support in the crowded GOP field.

Should observers expect an punch back via ad spending from Cameron or his allies? Maybe not, said University of Kentucky political science professor D. Stephen Voss.

“If Cameron’s able to keep floating above his rivals and they’re not making inroads, then he and his allies are better off staying on the high road. The only really good reason why Cameron’s forces should go negative is if they start seeing some significant slippage,” Voss said. “Going negative always comes with some some degree of cost.”

He added that, if Cameron or an associated PAC feels compelled to respond by bringing Craft down, then that could bode well for others running.

“If Cameron and Craft truly start cannibalizing each other’s support, then it may well be the candidates who stay above the fray – Ryan Quarles, especially – who would benefit in the long term. But that’s contingent on these attacks working, and, you know, judging from that first ad, I’m kind of skeptical,” Voss said.

Here are the PACs and organizations that could support 2023 candidates – some confirmed, some likely and some potential.

Daniel Cameron

So far, only one PAC that appears to be backing a gubernatorial candidate has reported raising funds. That PAC, Bluegrass Freedom Action, appears likely supporting Cameron in his run for the governor’s chair according to information posted on the Kentucky Registry of Election Finance (KREF).

Bluegrass Freedom Action reported raising $75,000 total from Louise and Kiki Courtelis, widow and daughter of the late GOP fundraising giant Alec Courtelis. The pair co-own Town and Country Farms, a horse farm in Georgetown. Both of them also contributed the maximum individual contribution of $2,000 to Cameron’s official campaign, according to KREF.

Inez attorney Jaryd Crum, who’s listed as the PACs treasurer, did not respond to inquiries about the PAC or its intentions.

Four of the eight individuals who have donated to Bluegrass Freedom Action have also donated to Cameron’s campaign warchest.

Ryan Quarles

Two groups that could support Quarles’ run for the governor’s chair have emerged thus far.

Conservative Action PAC has filed paperwork with KREF to get involved with the 2023 primary and is chaired by a Quarles donor in Todd P’Pool. P’Pool was the Republican nominee for attorney general in 2011, losing to former attorney general and Democratic nominee for governor Jack Conway.

P’Pool declined to comment on the PAC.

Tres Watson, former Republican Party of Kentucky spokesperson and Quarles ally, has also formed a PAC that could get involved. He registered Common Sense Kentucky with the Federal Elections Commission last year.

The PAC raised $40,000 each from Duke Energy Corporation and Better Schools Kentucky – a generally progressive PAC – and spent most all of it in the 2022 legislative cycle. Those expenses included defending incumbent Republican legislators against far-right ‘Liberty’ Republicans.

Watson told the Herald-Leader he had no updates to share on the PAC’s intentions in 2023 as of this week.

KREF Executive Director John Steffen told the Herald-Leader that PACs like Watson’s, which have yet to file with KREF for the 2023 cycle but have registered as Super PACs with the FEC, would need to register with KREF before spending money this cycle.

Quarles’ campaign came out to a hot fundraising start, leading the pack in cash on hand through the end of 2022. However, he raised much less than Cameron or Craft in the final quarter of the year.

Kelly Craft

Commonwealth PAC is spreading its first ad spend far and wide.

The vast majority of the $603,000 spend over two weeks is being allocated toward TV advertisements, mostly on local broadcast networks in Louisville, Lexington and Bowling Green. The PAC is also spending money on cable and satellite TV ads throughout the state as well as radio advertising in Paducah.

The Craft campaign did not offer comment when asked about Commonwealth PAC. The group’s chair, Lexingtonian Greg Couch, has yet to respond to inquiries on its intentions this cycle.

If Commonwealth PAC were to spend the same amount of money per week on its advertising leading up until the May 16 primary, it’s on track to spend more than $3 million total.

As the only candidate up on television so far, Craft herself has already spent a significant amount of money on advertisements, going up on air just before the New Year. Her campaign has spent more than a million total on television ads, according to Medium Buying.

Alan Keck

Somerset Mayor Alan Keck’s campaign started off strong with more than $200,000 raised in his first five weeks. But could he need more money from outside sources to raise his relatively slight profile as a small city mayor?

Bluegrass Conservatives PAC might help in that effort. The Super PAC, which has filed paperwork with the FEC and only filed with KREF for the 2022 cycle (it didn’t report raising or spending any money during that cycle), was formed by Keck donor William Nathan Parkey. Parkey did not respond to a request for comment on the PAC.

Julie Harris, spokesperson for the Keck campaign, responded to a question about the PAC by saying it “sounds like good news to me.” She said the campaign “would appreciate the support.”

Mike Harmon

Faith Family and Freedom PAC filed with KREF late last year, and its only contributor is Danville businessman Ted Baker, who contributed the maximum amount to fellow Danville resident Mike Harmon’s gubernatorial campaign.

Harmon said that he was aware of the PAC based on previous reporting from the Courier-Journal, but didn’t offer comment beyond that.

He did acknowledge that his campaign fundraising is in need of a jolt – he only had $26,000 on hand as of early January – but said that he likes where he’s at in terms of polling. Per the only public poll rel

“From the standpoint of my current fundraising, I still need to get up. We’re still right in the thick of it in terms of polling, too. No matter where I’ve run, I’ve always been the underdog, so this is not unique,” Harmon said.

Eric Deters

Eric Deters told the Herald-Leader that “had people talk to me about creating one when I got into the race” but is not aware of any PACs supporting him.

As far as money goes, Deters stated that he largely intends to self-fund. He previously estimated that he would spend around $2 million in the primary, but said recently that he would likely spend more than that.

He claims he spent $400,000 on a mailer that reached 800,000 Republican households. His campaign has also been sending mass texts to Kentuckians in its effort to raise its profile.

“If anybody wonders if I’m serious or not: well, I just spent $400,000 on a mailer. I’m going to spend the millions it takes to win,” Deters said.

Deters reported very little in campaign receipts or expenses as of the end of 2022, but he has been personally footing the bill for his Freedom Fest events across the state. Speakers at the biggest such event, held in September in his native Northern Kentucky, cost him over $100,000 a pop, according to the Courier-Journal. Those included popular conservative speakers Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. – the former president’s sons – as well as Candace Owens.

Andy Beshear

It’s early for PACs to begin rallying around an incumbent widely expected to win the primary and with a massive campaign warchest to boot.

Still, there are some organizations to watch as Beshear’s re-election bid starts to heat up.

Look for Kentucky Family Values, a PAC run by Louisville-based Democratic consultant Dave Contarino that raised more than $2 million to support Beshear in 2019, to get involved in 2023.

The Democratic Governors’ Association (DGA) is also expected to play a major role in Beshear’s re-election effort. Last cycle, an unauthorized campaign committee called Bluegrass Values was formed that listed the DGA’s Washington headquarters as its address. It spent more than $6.2 million to boost Beshear in 2019, with most of the money coming from the DGA.

The Kentucky Democratic Party has also been focused on re-electing Beshear as its top priority so far this year. In December 2022 alone, the KDP netted 50 maximum contributions from donors. Included in that list is Beshear administration Secretary of Transportation (as well as former Lexington mayor and Democratic candidate for Senate and U.S. House) Jim Gray, Louisville businessman and former lt. gov. candidate Gill Holland and 2022 Lexington mayoral candidate David Kloiber.

This story will be updated throughout the 2023 campaign cycle as groups continue to spend money in support of political candidates.