Once? Twice? More? Here's how often we expect Tennessee football to make a 12-team playoff
Wednesday’s reveal of the first College Football Playoff rankings served as a reminder of just how interesting – and deep – the playoff race will become next season.
The Vols (6-2, 3-2 SEC) aren’t in the hunt for this year’s playoff, but the format will expand to 12 teams in 2024. If the 12-team playoff were here today, Tennessee would remain in contention for a spot.
And, if last week’s 33-27 win over Kentucky offered any indication, the Vols should be a contender next year. Consider, some of the standouts in Saturday’s triumph: Dylan Sampson, Jaylen Wright, Dont’e Thornton. They’re eligible to return. If Nico Iamaleava is the real deal …
On this edition of "The Volunteer State," Blake Toppmeyer of the USA TODAY Network and the News Sentinel's Adam Sparks and John Adams examine the long-term outlook for Tennessee and the CFP.
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The Vols never made the four-team playoff. They came closest last year. This is the 10th year of the four-team format.
If the 12-team playoff lasts for 10 years, how often should Tennessee expect to qualify? Here’s how we see it:
Toppmeyer: Four times in 10 years. And expect to do something with one of those appearances. The Vols aren’t in the stratosphere of the SEC’s elite: Georgia and Alabama. Those teams should expect to make the playoff nearly every year. However, last year’s success shouldn’t be a one-off, either. The NIL era was made for Tennessee. The fan base’s passion (and dollars) finally can be put to use. The SEC should produce three-plus bids annually, and Tennessee should expect to be among a group of teams trying to make it at a rate of nearly once every two years.
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Sparks: Three times in 10 years. Let’s say the SEC averages 3.5 bids per year. That’s 35 bids in 10 years. I’d expect Alabama and Georgia to account for about 18 of those bids. That leaves 17 spots in a 10-year span for Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, Auburn, Texas A&M and others. With that in mind, three bids in 10 years would seem like a lofty goal to aspire to achieve.
Adams: Four times in 10 years. If you told an Alabama or Georgia fan that they’d make the playoff every other year, they’d wonder what’s gone wrong. LSU fans, too, will expect to be in the playoff more often than not. And Oklahoma? Its fans will plan to be playoff regulars. Where does Tennessee rank in this pecking order? With an uphill climb. Nonetheless, I think the SEC will command respect (and ample bids) from the CFP committee. Plus, I believe in Josh Heupel.
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Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist.John Adams is the News Sentinel's senior columnist. Adam Sparks covers the Vols. You can subscribe to read all their coverage, or check out the SEC Unfiltered newsletter, delivered straight to your inbox.They also host the lightly acclaimed "SEC Football Unfiltered" podcast.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: How often we expect Tennessee football to make 12-team playoff
