Oklahoma State football bowl possibilities range from New Year's Six to mid-level games

ARLINGTON, Texas — The Big 12 Championship Game brings with it big stakes.

The trophy, the championship rings, the glory.

But for 18th-ranked Oklahoma State — which faces No. 7 Texas at 11 a.m. Saturday at AT&T Stadium — a win also provides a New Year’s Six bowl spot.

Texas is likely locked into an elite bowl game regardless of what happens, and could possibly sneak into the College Football Playoff with a win, if things fall right across college football on Saturday.

But for Oklahoma State, a win is the only way to get into a New Year’s Six game.

Which one would the Pokes go to?

That’s a more complicated discussion.

More: How did Oklahoma State Cowboys turn the tables in football series against Texas Longhorns?

The Sugar Bowl is contracted to take the Big 12 champ, but that game is a CFP semifinal this year. So the Big 12 winner goes to a game with an at-large opening. That means the Cotton, Peach or Fiesta.

New Year’s Six opportunities are rare, and an OSU win would nearly guarantee the Big 12 with two New Year’s Six spots, because Texas would likely stay high enough in the rankings to also go as an at-large pick. That has a lot of value to the league.

If Texas wins Saturday, but doesn’t climb high enough to get in the playoff, the conference likely ends up with one New Year’s Six participant, because OU probably can’t climb high enough to get an at-large spot now.

So, even beyond the excitement that would come with seeing one of its future flagship programs win the conference title, Big 12 folks have another reason to get excited by an OSU win Saturday.

More later on where OSU might land for bowl season. Here’s a look at the game in the Big 12 championship edition of Four Downs:

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Matchup that Matters

Oklahoma State offensive line vs. Texas defensive line: More than anything, this is where the story of Saturday’s game will be told. Can the Cowboys open enough running lanes for Ollie Gordon II to get his usual production (163.4 rushing yards per game in Big 12 play)?

Can they protect quarterback Alan Bowman enough for him to deal out the ball through the air? That’s a key question for three reasons.

First, the ground game has really gained steam after Bowman and the passing attack have gotten rolling the last couple weeks. Second, Texas also averages more than two sacks per game with a line anchored by T’Vondre Sweat, the coaches’ pick for Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. And third, pass defense is the biggest weakness of this Longhorn squad.

They’re giving up 240.1 yards per game through the air, ranked 94th nationally. This Texas team is one without a lot of vulnerabilities, so the Cowboys need to take advantage of the ones they can find.

More: Oklahoma State football's Mike Gundy, Ollie Gordon II earn top honors in All-Big 12 awards

Number to Know

68.8%: That’s the rate at which teams score against Texas after reaching the red zone, the lowest percentage in the country. OSU has been really strong in the red zone, scoring on 87.0% of opportunities, but 20 of their 54 trips have ended in field goal tries (17 makes), most in the Big 12.

Among all of Texas’ stops inside the 20, six have been turnovers on downs and another with an interception. Texas has only allowed 32 total trips into the red zone with 22 ending in points (13 touchdowns and 9-of-10 made field goals).

Of those 13 touchdowns, just five have been rushing scores, which has been OSU’s primary method for red-zone points. The Cowboys have 30 total TDs on red zone trips with 22 coming on the ground.

In short, the Cowboys won’t win by settling for field goals in the red zone, but getting into the end zone has been a chore for any Longhorn opponent this year.

More: Oklahoma State football vs. Texas: Score predictions are in for Big 12 Championship Game

Bold Bowl Prediction

With a win: Cotton Bowl. As established earlier, it could also be the Fiesta or Peach bowls, but Cotton feels right. The Fiesta Bowl folks have hosted OSU two straight years, at the 2021 Fiesta and 2022 Guaranteed Rate Bowl. So they’d probably like to have some new blood in Phoenix. The Peach is intriguing, considering Big 12 teams don’t often get to make that journey.

With a loss: Pop-Tarts Bowl. This is where things get interesting. Will Texas get into the playoff? Seems difficult. Will OU finish highly enough to get a New Year’s Six bowl? Also seems difficult. And if neither of those things happen, the Cowboys find themselves in the middle of a popularity contest.

League standings don’t matter. On-field results don’t matter. OU seems to be the likely pick for the first Big 12 bowl slot at the Alamo. OSU would seem like a logical pick for Pop-Tarts, which has the second selection. Of course, OSU has been to the Orlando game twice in the last seven years, so if that group wants someone new, Kansas State will be on the menu. If the Pokes fall past that, the Texas and Liberty bowls, in that order, are next.

More: What is Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy's Big 12 Championship Game bonus?

Uni-Guess

Orange-Black-Orange: This got interesting earlier in the week when Texas — the designated home team by earning the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 standings — announced it would wear its classic road whites. That’s easily Texas’ best look, so that adds some uniform intrigue for the Cowboys.

With that, it feels like a strong day for contrast. In other words, no white at all. Occasionally, the equipment crew will give a nod back to a past victory, and OSU wore orange-orange-white the last time it played Texas.

All black is a fun option opposite all white. Or the black-black-orange combo from Bedlam earlier this year is always a sharp look.

But If they choose to go with a combination that hasn’t been worn this season, orange-black-orange would be a strong candidate. OSU has worn orange helmets twice all year, once with the OSU brand logo and once with script Cowboys — the latter in the 45-3 loss at Central Florida. So fans would probably suggest the brand logo this time around.

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Oklahoma State football can make New Year's Six bowl with win vs Texas