Ohio State women vs Maine in March Madness: Prediction for 2024 NCAA Tournament opener
Ohio State coach Kevin McGuff said it himself after the NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed, he did not know much about the Buckeyes' Round of 64 opponent, No. 15 seed Maine.
Earning their way into the NCAA Tournament as the America East Conference champions, the Black Bears are coming into March Madness riding a six-game winning streak.
During the course of the regular season, the program's only Power Five conference matchup was against Indiana back in November. Though the Hoosiers would pick up the 67-59 victory, Maine put up a solid fight, holding the lead through three quarters.
After being knocked out of the Big Ten Tournament in the quarterfinals by Maryland, it is highly unlikely the Buckeyes will be in the business of underestimating any team and will give their full effort to the No. 15 seed.
Here's a look at Ohio State's upcoming matchup, which is at noon Friday at Value City Arena.
Round of 64: Game time set for Ohio State vs Maine in 2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament opener
Top-ranked offense vs top-ranked defense
While the Buckeyes pride themselves on being a strong defensive team, especially in their press, it is their offense that is ranked 15th in the nation.
Scoring an average 79.8 points per game, nearly the entire Ohio State starting lineup is averaging at least 10 points. Led by Jacy Sheldon, whose 18 points per game is the third highest among Big Ten players, Rebeka Mikulasikova's 9.5 points per game is the lowest out of the Buckeyes' starting five.
However, the Buckeyes are going to be facing one of the top 25 defensive teams in the nation in the Round of 64. The Black Bears have held opponents to an average 56.3 points per game, and in their matchup against Indiana, who has the 16th best scoring offense in the nation, the Hoosiers scored approximately 12 points less than their average this season.
If the Buckeyes struggle to knock down shots like they were in the Maryland game, it could be a defensive battle to the end. Considering the fact Ohio State's defense has had solid performances throughout the season, and the Black Bears average only 64.3 points per game, even a low scoring game could play in favor of the No. 2 seed.
Battle of the boards
One of Ohio State's biggest areas of struggle this season has been on the boards. Across their five losses, the Buckeyes have been outrebounded 210-147, with an average margin of 12.6 in favor of their opponents.
Currently, there is not one Buckeye who averages over seven rebounds per game, as Cotie McMahon leads the team with an average of 6.5. For the Black Bears, Adrianna Smith averages 10.9 boards per game while Anne Simon grabs an average of 7.3. Maine's overall team average of 37.5 is over three rebounds higher than Ohio State's average.
The Buckeyes have seen how ugly a game can get when they are losing the battle on the boards. Their biggest scoring deficit came against Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, where they were outrebounded 55-31.
On the flip side, Ohio State has been able to come out victorious even while recording less rebounds than its opponent on multiple occasions. If the margin remains within 10 rebounds against Maine, there is a chance that could once again be the case for the Buckeyes.
The McMahon effect
On paper, Ohio State has the clear advantage when looking at the offensive side of the ball. While Simon and Smith average over 15 points per game each, no other Black Bear is averaging more than eight.
Beyond the numbers in the box scores, there is no stat that can truly encapsulate the way McMahon can impact a game for the Buckeyes. While the team was able to pull out victories when the sophomore hit a slump in December of this season, when McMahon is was, it looked like nobody can stop Ohio State.
In Ohio State's biggest victory of the season against Iowa, McMahon recorded a career-high 33 points and brought an energy to the court that helped boost the Buckeyes' overall gameplay to a level that not even 45 points from the Hawkeyes' Caitlin Clark could overcome.
If any combination of three to four Ohio State starters have decent outings, the Buckeyes will have a good chance at beating Maine, but if McMahon is leading that mix, it will be hard to imagine Ohio State doesn't advance to the second round.
Prediction
Ohio State is in a prime position to relight the fire it had during the 15-game winning streak that made the team a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. While the loss to Iowa to snap the streak was not ideal, the loss to Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament should be the alarm signaling to the Buckeyes that there are still areas of their game that needs to be worked on.
If the Buckeyes' half-court defense returns to the form it was at during the months of January and February, and the offense is able to start the scoring early in the match, it will be hard for Maine to overcome and Ohio State will be able to pick up the first round victory.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Ohio State vs Maine prediction: March Madness, NCAA women’s pick
