NYC mayoral hopeful Kathryn Garcia eyes ‘strong path to victory’
Dave Goldiner
Kathryn Garcia’s NYC mayoral campaign said in a new memo Monday that she has a “strong path to victory” once absentee ballots are added to the total as soon as Tuesday.
Garcia’s pollster claims that an analysis of where the outstanding 125,000 ballots were cast in the Democratic primary shows the former sanitation commissioner holds an advantage over Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, who holds a narrow lead in a preliminary count of votes cast in-person.
“The geographic distribution of the returned absentee ballots favors Garcia and puts Adams at a disadvantage compared to his in-person vote standing,” said the memo from pollster Adam Rosenblatt.
Democratic New York City mayoral candidate Kathryn Garcia
Democratic New York City mayoral candidate Kathryn Garcia (Shawn Inglima/)
The absentee ballots disproportionately come from Manhattan, where Garcia routed Adams, and diverse parts of Brooklyn and Queens that Garcia also won after gaining the votes of lower-ranking hopefuls.
Adams leads Garcia by about 15,000 votes, or about 2%, in the preliminary count votes cast in-person, with civil rights lawyer Maya Wiley just a whisker behind.
Garcia would need to hold off Wiley and beat Adams in the ranked-choice votes of the absentee ballots by a margin of around 57% to 43% to overtake him.
Independent analysts and pollsters are split on the likelihood of that happening, with several predicting the race could be determined by a razor-thin margin.
Revisiting this absentee analysis as well as some other models people have made has made me less bullish on Garcia than I was a few days ago.
At this point I'd say it's a Toss-Up or Tilts Adams.
Though I may change my mind again if we get more information!
The Adams campaign put out a similar memo claiming he “is well-positioned to maintain this lead” when the absentee votes are counted. Wiley urged her supporters to be patient as the convoluted count unfolds.
Garcia’s memo claims that she is likely to scoop about 21% of the first-place votes among the absentee ballots, about 2% more than she got from the in-person votes.
Adams, on the other hand, will get about 29% of the first-place votes, or 3% below the tally he received on June 22 and during early in-person voting, it predicts.
The memo predicts that Garcia picks up more ground in later rounds of the ranked-choice voting system, because voters who picked other candidates like Andrew Yang were far more likely to prefer Garcia than Adams.
The winner will face Republican Curtis Sliwa in the November general election.
Residents vote during the New York City mayoral primary election at the Brooklyn Museum polling station on June 22, 2021, in New York City. New York City residents cast ballots in a Democratic primary on June 22, 2021, that will select the candidate almost certain to take over as mayor tasked with shaping the post-pandemic future of America's largest metropolis. Registered Democrats will choose from a diverse group of 13 candidates for the job, often called "the second-most difficult" in the United States after that of the president.
Democratic mayoral candidate Maya Wiley pets a voter's dog during a campaign stop near a polling place in the West Village neighborhood of New York on Tuesday, June 22, 2021.
Democratic mayoral candidate Maya Wiley, center, is joined by New York State Assemblymember Deborah Glick, left, as she greets voters during a campaign stop near a polling place in the West Village neighborhood of New York on Tuesday, June 22, 2021.
A voter receives her ballot at Frank McCourt High School in New York on Tuesday, June 22, 2021. The final votes are set to be cast Tuesday in New York's party primaries, where mayors, prosecutors, judges and city and county legislators will be on the ballot, along with other municipal offices.
Republican candidate for New York mayor Curtis Sliwa signs in to vote at Frank McCourt High School, in New York on Tuesday, June 22, 2021. The final votes are set to be cast Tuesday in New York's party primaries, where mayors, prosecutors, judges and city and county legislators will be on the ballot, along with other municipal offices.
Republican candidate for New York mayor Curtis Sliwa waits to vote at Frank McCourt High School, in New York on Tuesday, June 22, 2021.
Residents vote during the New York City mayoral primary election at the Brooklyn Museum polling station on June 22, 2021, in New York City.
Voters wait to mark their ballots at Frank McCourt High School, in New York on Tuesday, June 22, 2021.
A resident checks in to vote during the New York City mayoral primary election at the Brooklyn Museum polling station on June 22, 2021, in New York City.
Voters sign in at Frank McCourt High School, in New York on Tuesday, June 22, 2021.
Residents arrive to vote during the New York City mayoral primary election at the Brooklyn Museum polling station on June 22, 2021 in New York City.
Signs alert people to a voting site in Manhattan as voters head to the polls for the Democratic primary for mayor and other elected positions on June 22, 2021, in New York City. Ranked-choice voting is being used for the first time, a system that lets voters prioritize more than one candidate on their ballot. The winner of the Democratic primary will face off against the Republican candidate in the fall.
Residents vote during the New York City mayoral primary election at the Brooklyn Museum polling station on June 22, 2021, in New York City.
Eric Adams votes at P.S. 81 on Tuesday, June 22, 2021, in Brooklyn, New York.
Eric Adams votes at P.S. 81 on Tuesday, June 22, 2021, in Brooklyn, New York.
Eric Adams gets emotional when talking about the death of his mother while talking to the media after voting at P.S. 81 on Tuesday, June 22, 2021, in Brooklyn, New York.
Voters receive their ballots at Frank McCourt High School, in New York on Tuesday, June 22, 2021.
People prepare to vote during the Primary Election Day at P.S. 81 on June 22, 2021, in the Bedford-Stuyvesant neighborhood of Brooklyn.
A poll worker assembles a ballot at Frank McCourt High School in New York on Tuesday, June 22, 2021.
A voter files her voting ballot during the Primary Election Day at P.S. 81 on June 22, 2021, in the Bedford-Stuyvesant neighborhood of Brooklyn.
Voters place their marked ballots in scanners at Frank McCourt High School, in New York on Tuesday, June 22, 2021. The final votes are set to be cast Tuesday in New York's party primaries, where mayors, prosecutors, judges and city and county legislators will be on the ballot, along with other municipal offices.
Eric Adams takes selfies with supporters after voting at P.S. 81 on Tuesday, June 22, 2021, in Brooklyn, New York.
Corey Johnson, Candidate for Comptroller, arrives to vote on Tuesday, June 22, 2021 in Manhattan.
Corey Johnson, Candidate for Comptroller, arrives to vote on Tuesday, June 22, 2021 in Manhattan.
People vote during the Primary Election Day at P.S. 81 on June 22, 2021, in the Bedford-Stuyvesant neighborhood of Brooklyn.
Manhattan District Attorney Candidate Tali Farhadian Weinstein is pictured greeting potential voters while campaigning on the corner of 72nd Street and Columbus Avenue on Tuesday, June 22, 2021.
People vote during the Primary Election Day at P.S. 81 on June 22, 2021, in the Bedford-Stuyvesant neighborhood of Brooklyn.
A poll worker hangs up a voting sign during the Primary Election Day at P.S. 81 on June 22, 2021, in the Bedford-Stuyvesant neighborhood of Brooklyn. This is the first year in the city for ranked-choice voting, which allows voters to rank their top five candidates.
A poll worker hangs up a voting sign during the Primary Election Day at P.S. 81 on June 22, 2021, in the Bedford-Stuyvesant neighborhood of Brooklyn.
The embattled Board of Elections has said it will finish counting the absentee ballots, which were required to be received by June 29, on Tuesday.
It will then add them to the in-person totals and start redistributing ranked-choice votes to come up with a final result.
The troubled board drew widespread criticism last week when it inadvertently added 135,000 dummy ballots to the in-person total. It later retallied the numbers to produce the results showing Adams narrowly in front.
