NYC will bounce back sooner than expected: De Blasio’s budget director predicts
New York City’s budget director predicted Tuesday that the city’s fiscal situation would improve sooner than others are forecasting, including the city’s own Independent Budget Office.
Jacques Jiha, who heads Mayor de Blasio’s Office of Management and Budget, testified to the City Council that ongoing vaccination efforts and the likelihood of more federal stimulus money will lead to employees returning to the office and the city’s tourism industry rebounding more quickly than expected, which would help alleviate the city’s budget woes.
“From our perspective, the city’s going to recover much faster than we anticipate,” he said.
The city’s Independent Budget Office painted a slightly less rosy picture.
In testimony to the Council. IBO Director Ronnie Lowenstein predicted that, even with employment growth over the next four years, “the city would still have fewer jobs in 2025 than it did in 2019.”
Lowenstein’s forecast was not all doom and gloom, though.
She estimates that the city will end the year with a budget surplus of $3.6 billion — $258 million more than de Blasio’s budget team has forecast.
“This surplus comes despite our projection of tax collections falling by nearly two percent this year compared with 2020,” she said in her testimony. “Tax revenue has held up better than expected by many fiscal observers, including IBO.”
Jiha predicted that by the end of the year, the city’s economy would grow by 4.6% and said there would be 517,000 more jobs for people in the city by 2022. The city lost approximately 557,000 jobs in 2020.
Tourism will contribute to the city’s economic resurgence, Jiha said, noting that he expects the industry to recover more quickly than others have predicted.
He said that while NYC & Company, the city’s tourist marketing arm, has forecast a full recovery by 2025, he expects the sector to bounce back sooner.
“2025, from my perspective, is a bit too conservative,” he said.
